The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
The Field
The Valspar Championship remains one of the more underrated stops on the PGA TOUR. The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook is one of the best venues on the schedule as it offers the players a fair but tough test with plenty of winding holes, lots of water, and thick rough. The placement on the schedule (after two big events in a row) means that we don’t have a ton of elite players, but with Augusta on the horizon, some have decided to use this as one of their final warmup events. Justin Thomas, Xander Schuaffele, and Tommy Fleetwood are all in the field—as of writing—along with past Valspar champions Sam Burns and Jordan Spieth.
The field maxes out at 144 players this week, and there could certainly be some more withdrawals as the week goes on. Some young players in the field to keep an eye on include Luke Clanton, Nicolai Hojgaard, and Karl Vilips. Like most regular PGA stops, the cut will take place after Friday’s round, and the top 65 players and ties will play the weekend.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $750K Sand Trap [$200K to 1st]
The Course
Copperhead Course, Innisbrook Golf Resort—Palm Harbour, Florida
Par 71, 7,340 yards
Copperhead has hosted this event since its inception in 2000. It underwent a date change in 2007, and this venue has tended to play tougher since then; hence looking at course history before 2007 isn’t super useful. The other thing to note this week is that the course underwent huge renovations of greens, fairways, and some bunkers after 2015. While the design of the course didn’t change much (if at all), the changes seemingly toughened up an already-hard track.
Six of the last 11 iterations of the Valpsar (all held at Copperhead ) have featured winning scores of 10-under par or less. Scoring conditions softened a touch in 2021 and 2022, but they grew the rough higher again in 2023 and brought it closer to the greens (to punish off-target shots) and we once again saw Copperhead play to its usual standards. Last year, it again played extremely tough with the winner getting to just 12-under par and the cut taking place at just even par for the week.
Copperhead is unique in that it’s a par 71 but features five (yes, five) par 3s and four par 5s. Birdies can be had on the par 5s, but the majority of them are anything but pushovers and require three good shots to even sniff a birdie putt. Placement off the tee on the par 5s and longer par 4s is crucial as the parkland setting has several doglegs built into the course design, plus heavy rough, which means that getting too wild off the tee will force layups.
The course itself isn’t brutally long, but it does play longer than its yardage due to both the doglegs and thicker rough. Long iron approaches this week will be plentiful, with the two most popular approach baskets being between 175-200 yards and 200+ yards. This almost always means more missed greens in regulation than normal, and we often see GIR% at this event trend 5-10% lower than the PGA TOUR average.
With water prevalent and placement being such a big factor, there is little doubt we need players capable of a great all-around effort on the stat sheet. Great long-iron play is essential, and a credible off-the-tee game is a must. In 2023, three of the top five finishers gained 4.0 strokes or more on approach for the week and every single one of them gained strokes off the tee as well—even if it wasn’t as significant as the gains they made on approach. Last season, the top two finishers (Malnati and Cameron Young) gained 3.5 and 5.0 strokes OTT respectively.
While strokes gained off the tee and approach stats will remain critical to success, much like Bay Hill, the overseeded Poa greens at Copperhead do lend themselves to big putting spikes. Recent winners have gained more strokes putting vs the field than any other area. Last season, Malnati ranked third in SG: PUTT for the week, gaining 8.4 strokes on the greens. Each of the last four winners (Burns x2, Moore and Malnati) have now gained +4.9 strokes or more putting.
The putting variance means this event has produced several long-shot winners as well. Burns was 80-1 when he won in 2021, as was Taylor Moore in 2023. Malnati was also a huge long shot last year going off well into the triple digits. For DFS research, elite approach games and long-iron proximity are important stats to track, but looking for players capable of spiking on the greens is prudent as well, especially when looking down the board for GPP boom-or-bust type candidates.
2025 Outlook: The first two days of this event look nasty. Thursday has wind gusts forecast of up to 20-25 MPH with the potential for some short showers to be present in the afternoon as well. Things do get a lot better for the rest of the event, but Friday a.m. still has gusts in the 15 MPH range before dying out during the day. The wind dies down on Saturday and Sunday, so anyone who survives the cut could look to make a move with an early Saturday tee time. It could also be a case where fading the TH p.m./FRI a.m. group is prudent, although we won’t know for sure whether this is the best strategy until Wednesday evening when we get a final forecast. Whatever the case, expect another variance-filled event with the potential for massive wave split much like we had last week in Florida at Sawgrass.
Last 5 winners
2024: Peter Malnati -12 (over Cameron Young -10)
2023: Taylor Moore -10 (over Adam Schenk -9)
2022: Sam Burns -17 (in a playoff over Davis Riley)
2021: Sam Burns -17 (over Keegan Bradley -14)
2019: Paul Casey -8 (over Louis Oosthuizen and Jason Kokrak -7)
Winning Trends
Nine of the past 10 Valspar Championship winners had recorded at least one top 10 on the season before their victory here (Sam Burns had posted a T3 at the Genesis prior to winning in 2021, and a T9 at the API before winning in 2022).
The last six winners had played this event at least one time before winning. However, both Casey (2018) and Moore (2023) had missed the cut at Copperhead in their only other appearance before winning.
Winners’ Stats and Course Overview
Peter Malnati (12-under-par, 2024)
2023 lead-in form (T68-T9-MC-T14-MC)
- SG: OTT — 3.5
- SG: APP — 2.5
- SG: TTG — 5.2
- SG: ATG — -0.8
- SG: PUTT — 8.4
- Burns dominated on the greens at Copperhead in 2022. He gained over 9.0 strokes putting in 2021 on his way to winning and had another lights-out putting performance in 2022.
- Burns had played Valspar twice prior to his initial win in 2021 and had gained over 6.0 strokes putting on each of those previous starts.
- Winners have all tended to excel in the approach category, much like Moore in 2023, who gained 5.1 strokes on approach. Four of the top-five finishers from 2023 gained over 4.0 strokes on approach.
- Prior to Moore’s win last season, each of the winners at Copperhead from 2015 onward had gained over 1.0 strokes ATG for the week — with several gaining over 2.5 strokes around the greens.
- Putting still remains a dominant stat and where winners tend to gain the most.
- Last four winners: Malnati +8.4 SG: PUTT; Moore +4.9 SG: PUTT; Burns +5.2 SG: PUTT; Burns +9.1 SG: PUTT
Finding Values on DraftKings Sportsbook
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players (but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them). This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value compared to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
Keith Mitchell +5000 and $7,800
Comparables:
- Cameron Young +5000 and $8,000
- Stephan Jaeger +6000 and $7,900
- Ben Griffin +5000 and $7,900
Rasmus Hojgaard +6000 and $7,500
Comparables:
- Bud Cauley +6000 and $7,600
- Kurt Kitayama +6000 and $7,600
- Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen +8000 and $7,700
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
HORSES FOR COURSES
Sam Burns (best finishes: win-2021/2022): Burns has played this event five times but has dominated over that short period. He’s gained over 3.0 strokes putting in every start of his career at Copperhead, and finished T6 at this event in 2023 after winning it in back-to-back seasons. You won’t see a stronger player/course correlation than Burns and Copperhead.
Adam Hadwin (best finishes: win-2017, T5-2024): Hadwin is another former winner of the Valspar. He’s been boom-or-bust at this venue, posting three MCs over the past six years but also finishes of T5 in 2024, T12 in 2018, and T7 in 2022 (to go along with his 2017 win).
Justin Thomas (best finishes: T3-2022, T10-2023): Thomas has knocked on the door at this event before. The American finished T3 back in 2022 and has finished inside the top-20 in five of six career starts at Copperhead. He’s tended to excel with his irons around this setup and gained 7.4 strokes on approach here in 2022.
Lucas Glover (best finishes: T11-2024, T13-2019): Glover is a great ball striker so it’s not a shock he’s been able to handle himself well around this winding accuracy-driven venue. He hasn’t been able to sink enough putts to contend of late, but does have multiple top-15 finishes at Copperhead over the past five seasons.
K.H. Lee (best finishes: T9-2024, T19-2023): If you want a play out of left field, Lee may be your guy this week. He comes in on a four-event missed cut streak but is seventh in strokes gained total stats at Copperhead the last five years, and finished T9 at this event last season.
Recent Form
Jake Knapp ($8,100; T12-T6): Knapp continues to play some high-level golf. He’s gained strokes on approach in eight straight events now and gained 9.1 strokes putting at Sawgrass.
Corey Conners ($9,600; T6-3): Conners followed up a third-place finish at Bay Hill with a T6 at Sawgrass. The Canadian is gaining everywhere at the moment and looks especially confident on the greens, which should bode well for his chances at Copperhead.
Joe Highsmith ($7,300; T20-MC-Win): Highsmith followed up his win at PGA National with a solid T20 at Sawgrass. He’s finished top-20 in three of his last four starts.
Danny Walker ($6,900; T6-T64-T13): Walker was a complete surprise last week, managing a T6 in his first-ever THE PLAYERS start. He gained 6.6 strokes off the tee and is coming in red-hot after he also finished T13 in Mexico.
Alex Smalley ($9,000; T16-T21): Smalley continued his solid run of play last week at Sawgrass. While he fell at T14 on Sunday, the American has finished T21 or better in six of seven starts in 2025 and is one of the best short-game players in the world at the moment, having gained over 4.0 strokes ATG in each of his last two starts.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Cash Games: Conners should produce
I do like Justin Thomas ($10,800, see below) this week, but if you are looking for a more balanced start, then Corey Conners at $9,600 should have your eye. The Canadian is gaining pretty much everywhere at this point and displaying a lot more confidence around and on the greens than he has in the past. It’s possible two weeks of being in contention will wear him out, but I wouldn’t discount another big week from him here. Taylor Moore ($8,600) has strong course history to rely on and is striking it better of late, making him appealing. Further down, I would not be shocked to see a decent rebound from Kevin Yu ($7,200) either, who continues to hit it well and has had a big price drop after one missed cut.
Tournaments: Kitayama could surprise
A tough Florida course is exactly the sort of track that Kitayama ($7,600) won on back in 2023, and with him finishing strong last week, I wouldn’t put it past him to produce a decent week at Copperhead in 2025. The American is still gaining strokes on approach and comes in 14th in SG: APP stats and 7th in SG: OTT stats. He found his putting stroke at Sawgrass as well, gaining 1.9 strokes on the greens; his best week putting to date. Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,600) is another name who may benefit from tougher conditions and did finish T9 at this event last season. Given that we saw Peter Malnati win this event last season, Matt Wallace ($7,200) is another veteran I would not overlook in this spot as he had a solid week in Puerto Rico just a couple of starts ago. Some cheaper boom-or-bust GPP options include Ricky Castillo ($6,600), Danny Willett ($6,200), and Vince Whaley ($6,500).
MY PICK: Justin Thomas ($10,800)
This pick is obviously a little chalky, but this week really does look like a great setup for Thomas to potentially bag his first win since the 2022 PGA Championship. He’s coming off a PLAYERS Championship where he undoubtedly gained a ton of confidence after starting so poorly with a 78, before rallying with a course record-tying 62 to make the cut. While he ran out of juice over the weekend and had to settle for a pair of 73’s and a T33 finish, Thomas should feel good about his effort and the fact he (statistically) had his best week with his putter on the PGA TOUR since the 2023 Genesis Open, gaining 4.7 strokes on the greens for the week.
As we’ve seen over the past three seasons, being in contention at THE PLAYERS isn’t necessarily a good thing either. Neither, Burns, Moore, or Malnati finished inside the top-20 at that event and so while Thomas may feel poorly for starting so slow last week and taking himself out of contention, he’ll also be fresher from not having to endure a weekend of high-stakes golf at one of the most stressful events of the season.
For DFS, I think there are plenty of ways to build around him this week which includes multiple cheaper players under $7,000 and for betting, his +1400 outright odds on the DraftKings Sportsbook are actually bigger than his odds were at another full-field event in February at the WM Phoenix Open.
MY SLEEPER: Davis Riley ($6,800)
Riley was our super-sleeper pick last week and he didn’t disappoint. If you used him at $5,000 in big-field GPPs at THE PLAYERS you were likely very happy with your returns as he not only made the cut, but produced 16 birdies in what were pretty tough conditions all week.
Despite a top-10 in Puerto Rico two weeks ago and the fact he comes in on a three-event made-cut streak, Riley still remains well below $7,000 in price. He’s now gained strokes on approach, around the green, and putting in three straight events as well, so while you would like to see him take a big step forward on the greens soon (to really make some noise), clearly his baseline game has risen substantially from the start of the year when he was missing cuts left and right.
Add in the fact he lost in a playoff at this event back in 2022 (a week where he gained over 7.0 strokes putting) and it’s hard to resist not going back to him one more time. He’s got good upside as a sub-$7k play for DFS and is again a solid longshot target for the placement markets at +700 (top-20) and +1600 (top-10) on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $750K Sand Trap [$200K to 1st]
