On February 22, the Los Angeles Lakers went to the Mile High City and defeated the Denver Nuggets, 123-100, announcing their presence as legitimate contenders to win the Western Conference. Tonight’s 9:30 p.m. ET rematch was supposed to be yet another preview of the conference semifinals, but Los Angeles has slid down to fourth in the conference after losing LeBron James to a groin injury, and now Luka Dončić will sit as well.
Moments after finishing with 45 points, 11 rebounds, and three assists in a 126-106 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks last night, Dončić was noncommittal about whether or not he’d play in tonight’s clash, but the Lakers eventually ruled him out with calf and ankle soreness. Los Angeles will also be without Jaxson Hayes, James, Rui Hachimura, and Maxi Kleber, and Dorian Finney-Smith and Gabe Vincent are also doubtful with injury management. Trey Jemison is questionable with an illness.
Against such an injury-bitten Lakers team, three-time MVP Nikola Jokić should thrive. This season, the Serbian is averaging 29.0 points, 12.9 rebounds, and 10.4 assists per game.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Nuggets are 15-point favorites and the point total is set to 227.5. Below, I’ve outlined my favorite props centered around Jokić.
Best Nikola Jokic Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Nikola Jokic 10+ First-Quarter Points (+115)
Given Los Angeles’ litany of injuries, I expect Jokić to go in, impart significant damage, and retire to the bench for an early night, so I’m avoiding his full-game points prop. A Lakers team led by Austin Reaves and replacement-level guys is simply never going to be good enough to keep it competitive with Denver, unless Reaves has the game of his life. Los Angeles’ starting front-court is likely to consist of Alex Len and Jarred Vanderbilt; since joining the Lakers, Len has graded as worse than a replacement-level player and Vanderbilt, while an excellent defender, is just six-foot-eight.
Jokić’s first-quarter usage this season hasn’t been crazy; he has just the 10th-highest usage rate in the opening frame this season among players who have appeared in at least 45 games, but he does play nearly the entire quarter and is averaging 9.7 first-quarter points, the second-most of anyone in the league. His efficiency is also ridiculous in the frame; he’s shooting 62.7% from the field and 47.6% from deep, both better than his game-long stats. It’s unclear what kind of team Los Angeles will put on the floor, given that the combination of players that are going to play tonight have probably never suited up together in an NBA game before, but whatever the lineup, it’s one that Jokić should dominate easily.
Nikola Jokic U12.5 Rebounds (-110)
I’m taking the under on Jokić’s boards not because I’m a believer in Len, Vanderbilt, Christian Koloko, or any big man the Lakers might put out there, but because Los Angeles is effectively punting on this game. The Lakers’ backups were bad enough to be in an eight-point deficit at halftime against Milwaukee — a worse team than the Nuggets — last night, even with Dončić scoring a season-high 29 points in the first half. Without Dončić or Finney-Smith — probably Los Angeles’ fifth-best player, after Dončić, James, Reaves, and Hachimura — I can’t see a world in which this game is competitive. I predicted that Dončić would carry the Lakers to a victory last night against all odds, and I was wrong. Jokić won’t see the court in the fourth quarter.
