The final games of the NBA regular season are just a month away, which means that if it wasn’t already, the stretch run is properly among us. All of the teams with the playoffs virtually secure will set their eyes on their first round series, and all the teams virtually eliminated will focus on the draft lottery instead. The Oklahoma City Thunder and the Cleveland Cavaliers have clinched playoff berths, while the Utah Jazz have been fully eliminated.
Here are my top bets for Thursday’s games at DraftKings Sportsbook for tonight’s hoops action, with one bet from every game.
First, let’s take a look at the full slate:
Washington Wizards at Detroit Pistons, 7 p.m. ET
Los Angeles Lakers at Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30 p.m. ET
Orlando Magic at New Orleans Pelicans, 8 p.m. ET
Brooklyn Nets at Chicago Bulls, 8 p.m. ET
New York Knicks at Los Angeles Lakers, 10 p.m. ET
Washington Wizards +6.5 Second Half (-112)
When these two teams faced off on Tuesday night, it was really only a pitiful first-quarter display in which the Wizards shot just eight-for-23 (34.8%) from the field and zero-for-nine from three that made all the difference. After that point, Washington was outscored by just five points in the final three quarters. For the season, the Wizards have had a negative-13.1 net rating in the first quarter — the second-worst mark in the league — but that improves somewhat to negative-11.6 in the second half. Over the last month — a span in which Washington is a respectable 4-6 — the Wizards have a second-half net rating of just negative-6.0.
Washington is four games worse than the New Orleans Pelicans for the fourth-worst record in the NBA, and with the flattened lottery odds, the Wizards can afford to win without affecting their chances of landing the first overall pick and drafting Duke forward Cooper Flagg. Even though six Washington players — including the recently-traded Kyle Kuzma — rank among the 20 worst players in the league by box plus-minus, several Wizards have shown flashes of competence in recent weeks, including lottery picks Alex Sarr and Bub Carrington. Sarr has had two double-doubles in his last three games, and Kyshawn George has scored double-digit points in four of his last five.
Los Angeles Lakers Moneyline (+210)
Frankly, the Lakers — who have lost two straight games, the first of which was a narrow defeat to the Boston Celtics in which they shot just five-for-23 (21.7%) from the field in the third quarter and the second was a disappointing loss to the Brooklyn Nets, who have the league’s third-worst net rating over the last month — have absolutely no business winning this game. But Los Angeles had no business blowing out Boston on January 23, beating the New York Knicks on the road without Anthony Davis on February 1, or dispatching the Denver Nuggets on February 25. In the last two months, the Lakers have lost to the San Antonio Spurs, Philadelphia 76ers, Utah Jazz, Charlotte Hornets, and the Nets, who will all pick in the lottery. Of the teams likely to make the playoffs, they’ve only fallen to the LA Clippers and the Celtics.
The team’s injury report is long for tonight’s game — Rui Hachimura, Jaxson Hayes, LeBron James, and Maxi Kleber remain out, while Luka Dončić is questionable — but Los Angeles shouldn’t be counted out regardless. Dončić has been listed on the injury report prior to virtually every game he has played with the team, and he has only missed one, which came on the second night of a back-to-back. There are few players alive who can drag any level of talent to a victory, but Dončić is one of them. The Lakers conceded 16 offensive rebounds to Brooklyn on Monday and Dončić shot just eight-for-26 (30.8%) from the field. As long as No. 77 is anywhere near his usual efficiency, I’d never doubt his team.
Cam Thomas 25+ Points (-105)
Thomas can do exactly one thing well — score the ball. He still grades out as a roughly replacement-level player, despite averaging 24.0 points per game on okay efficiency, because according to box plus-minus, his defense gives away everything he adds as an offensive player. Among all players who have played at least one minute this season, Thomas has been the 25th-worst defender and the 56th-best offensive player. He doesn’t add much as either a rebounder or a playmaker, either. But he can certainly score; as a 21-year-old sophomore, he had three consecutive 40-point games
Meanwhile, the Bulls have played basically Thomas-level defense; everyone has put the ball in the basket against Chicago. For the season, the Bulls have had the 10th-worst defensive rating in basketball while playing at the league’s third-fastest pace. Add it all up, and Chicago has allowed the second-most points, second-most rebounds, and fourth-most assists while forcing the third-fewest turnovers. Plus, Lonzo Ball — arguably the Bulls’ most talented perimeter defender — is doubtful for tonight’s game. If there’s ever a game that Thomas was destined to go off, it’s this one.
Orlando Magic-New Orleans Pelicans O216 (-110)
Of tonight’s slate, this game has the lowest over-under by eight points, and it’s for good reason; the Magic have the league’s second-best defensive rating, and the Pelicans’ is the sixth-worst. But it’s too low; three of each team’s last five games have gone over, and since the All-Star break, New Orleans has had a roughly league-average offense and a still-poor defense, while the Magic’s defense has slipped closer to the middle of the pack. Zion Williamson has been healthy for the better part of two months now, and he’s playing some of the best basketball of his career. Williamson has recorded two triple-doubles in his last six games and scored 20 or more points in nine of his last 10. The Pelicans’ loss of rookie center Yves Missi won’t help their defense, and the most likely scenario in which this bet doesn’t hit is if the inconsistent Paolo Banchero simply shoots Orlando out of it.
Stephen Curry 6+ Three-Pointers Made (+140)
Tonight, Curry will almost certainly become the first player in NBA history to make 4,000 regular-season three-pointers, as he’s just two triples away from the mark. Even after he inevitably hits his second three-pointer, he should still keep firing away, especially if he’s in a rhythm. With the game being played at Chase Center, Warriors fans will be eager for Curry to fire early and often, and as soon as he finds a groove, it’ll be hard to get him out of it. Kings fans know it well; he shoots nearly 44% from deep in his career against them. Since the All-Star break, Sacramento has allowed the 10th-most made three-pointers per game at the sixth-highest percentage.
Plus, Golden State’s decision to deal for Jimmy Butler at the trade deadline has benefited Curry more than even the most ardent Warriors supporter would have expected. Since Butler joined the team, Curry is averaging 29.9 points, 4.1 rebounds, 6.1 assists, and 5.2 made three-pointers per game on 50-42-92 shooting splits. His average game score across that span is nearly as high as it was in 2015-16, when he became the only unanimous MVP in league history. In a player who looked to be past his prime at the beginning of the season, Butler has unlocked a Curry who has turned back the clock in an instant.
