This week is a glorious golf week as the PGA TOUR heads to TPC Sawgrass for THE PLAYERS Championship. This tournament is one of the most prestigious events of the year and draws an elite field to try and conquer the island green and claim a huge victory. The risk/reward setup of the course and typical Florida setup produce a wide range of results on every hole and throughout the tournament. With 144 players in the field, there are lots of options, but finding the right low-ownership plays can be challenging. Here are my top three pivot plays this week: Justin Thomas ($10,100), Jordan Spieth ($8,800) and Karl Vilips ($6,100). Each of those players should have lower ownership but also the ability to outperform expectations at their price point.
To make sure we’re all targeting the same fairway, a “pivot play” is a golfer with lower ownership but similar upside to more popular options available near the same DFS salary. Sometimes, the golfer with lower ownership brings extra risk factors, but to make your lineup stand out in tournament formats, it’s worth the extra risk for the higher ceiling. Players with lower ownership increase the chance of your entry finishing higher on the leaderboard. These pivot plays tend to be “boom-or-bust,” bringing high risk and high reward. Even though they’re NOT the safest plays in the price range, they have enough potential upside to be worth the risk. Be sure to check out my picks for cash lineups if you’re looking for safer options that raise the floor of your lineup.
Let’s break down why I like each of my top-three pivot plays this week.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $2.25M Fantasy Golf Millionaire [$1M to 1st]
Justin Thomas ($10,100)
Thomas still hasn’t won on the PGA TOUR since the 2022 PGA Championship, but that doesn’t mean his game isn’t in great form as he rolls into TPC Sawgrass. With Scottie Scheffler ($12,800), Collin Morikawa ($10,500) and Rory McIlroy ($11,500) getting much more attention, JT comes in a little under the radar with a very high ceiling–exactly what we’re looking for in pivot plays.
Last week at Bay Hill, Thomas was in the mix before his putter abandoned him over the weekend. He dropped all the way out of to top 35 after a 74-76 on the weekend. He will look to bounce back with the flat stick at TPC Sawgrass while keeping his approach game and iron play sharp. Over the last 30 rounds, Thomas leads this elite field in Strokes Gained: Approach, ranks second in Total Strokes Gained and second in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
Thomas already posted three top-10 finishes this season and also finished runner-up at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP last October. He has been knocking on the door of breaking back through, and if he can get his putter in gear, this could be the week for him.
He won at this event before, taking the title in 2021. Since then, though, he finished T33, T60 and missed the cut. However, given how good his game has looked this season and how low his ownership will likely be, he’s a great pivot off the other names at the top of the salary structure this week.
Jordan Spieth ($8,800)
Between $8,000 and $10,000 are some huge names including last week’s winner Russell Henley ($9,500), Viktor Hovland ($9,000), and Sepp Straka ($8,600). Straka is getting tons of attention along with Henley, Jason Day ($8,100) and Hideki Matsuyama ($9,900), but Spieth has shown enough upside lately that I like taking a shot on Spieth to post a high finish this week.
Spieth has proven he can keep with up with the top of elite field when he’s at his best and has shown glimpses of returning to form. Even though he missed the cut at The Genesis Invitational and failed to qualify for the API last week, he looked very strong in a top-five finish at the WM Phoenix Open and a top-10 finish at the Cognizant Classic in his first start at PGA National. He ranked in the top 10 for the tournament in both Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and Strokes Gained: Putting.
After taking last week off, his wrist should be in good shape coming to TPC Sawgrass. In his career at THE PLAYERS, Spieth has five made cuts, including two in the last four years since it was canceled. He missed the cut last year but finished in the top 20 in 2023.
He has been inconsistent this season and in the past at Sawgrass, but his ceiling makes him a good GPP target since his ceiling is so high. He’s worth the risk since his top form is among the best in the game.
Karl Vilips ($5,600)
With the salary structure this week, 98 players come in under $6,000. None of them will be extremely highly owned, but Michael Kim ($5,900), J.T. Poston ($6,900) and Harry Hall ($6,500) seem to be getting most of the attention. Last week in my flier spot I had success backing Max McGreevy ($6,600) as an ultra-cheap player on a heater. This week, I’m going to take a similar long-shot on Vilips. With a much bigger cut, he’s a very high-risk play, but the youngster definitely has the potential to be golf’s next big thing, and this is a very affordable way to include him in your lineups.
Vilips first burst onto the scene when Tiger Woods tapped him to be the first PGA TOUR golfer to rep Tiger Woods’ Sun Day Red clothing line. Vilips brings plenty of international appeal since he was born in Indonesia and raised in Australia, and now it looks like Tiger picked just the right golfer on the rise after Vilips won last week at the Puerto Rico Open in just his fourth PGA TOUR career start.
Last year, Vilips earned a PGA TOUR card on the Korn Ferry Tour where he posted seven top-25 finishes in 10 events, highlighted by a win at the Utah Championship. He made the cut at the Mexico Open and then finished T39 at the Cognizant Classic at PGA National. That success on a difficult layout shows he’s not just a one-week, weak-field wonder, and he comes in with enough momentum that I’m willing to take a flier on Vilips in GPP lineups this week.
Tiger knew first, but now I’m on board the Vilips Express. Hop on board while there’s still room! If you can’t handle the heat of trying to catch lightning with Vilips, Justin Rose ($6,300) and Doug Ghim ($5,600) are cheap plays I also like this week.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $1M Sand Trap [$200K to 1st] (PGA TOUR)
