Last night, the Cleveland Cavaliers made it more difficult than they had to, as they fell behind by 16 points to the Chicago Bulls early in the second quarter. It marked the third straight game in which Cleveland fell behind by 15 points or more…and it has won all three. Whether the Cavaliers’ occasional early-game lapses or their late-game clutch are more indicative of their true character, they’re closing in on becoming the third team in NBA history to win 70 or more games in the season. Cleveland needs to win 19 of its final 21 games in order to achieve the feat, and it has +1100 odds to do so on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Meanwhile, the Miami Heat are virtually assured to finish in the Play-In Tournament for the third consecutive year, as they’re five games behind the Detroit Pistons for sixth in the East and eight and a half games ahead of the 11th-seeded Brooklyn Nets. Miami has been the definition of mediocre this season, sitting two games below .500 with a negative-0.4 net rating.
The Heat will travel to the shores of Lake Erie to take on the Cavaliers for a 7 p.m. ET nationally-televised clash.
Cleveland is an 11.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-625 on the Moneyline) and the point total is set to 222. Meanwhile, Miami is +455 on the Moneyline.
Bam Adebayo U35.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120)
Adebayo’s line is largely informed by the news that point guard Tyler Herro missed this morning’s shoot-around after contracting an illness and carries a questionable designation for the game, given that Adebayo did amass 38 combined P/R/A the last time Herro sat out, a 103-85 loss to the Boston Celtics on February 10. But Herro has missed only two games this season, and with him on the court, Adebayo faces a difficult path to 36 P/R/A, even with Andrew Wiggins, Kel’el Ware, and Jaime Jaquez Jr. already out. It’s a big line that he’s reached only 15 times this season.
I’m still convinced that the Cavaliers are systematically underrated, especially their defensive intensity. For the season, Cleveland has the league’s seventh-best defensive rating — slightly worse than the average champion since 2000 — and in its current 11-game winning streak, that figure has risen to fourth. During their winning streak, the Cavaliers have given up the eighth-fewest points, third-fewest rebounds, and third-fewest assists. I could see Adebayo reaching his number against a bad defense with his increased usage, but unless Herro doesn’t play, this line is far too high against an elite defense like Cleveland’s.
Evan Mobley to Record a Double-Double (-115)
Miami has been a pretty good rebounding team since the All-Star break, allowing just 41.7 rebounds per game across that span — the fifth-fewest in basketball — despite the tallest healthy player on the roster being the six-foot-nine Adebayo. Having Ware — who averaged 10.2 rebounds per game in his first five games after the All-Star break before suffering a knee injury on March 2 — helped, and the Heat subsequently allowed 43 boards the following day to Washington, which isn’t exactly elite on the glass.
I opted for Mobley instead of Jarrett Allen (+105 to record a double-double) because Allen is far more inconsistent as a scorer. Mobley has a double-double in exactly half his games and has scored fewer than 10 points just seven times all season, while Allen has done so 14 times. Allen may be more likely to snag 10 rebounds than Mobley, but Mobley hasn’t scored in the single digits in more than a month, making him a safer play. In 15 games since returning from an ankle injury, he has averaged 10.4 boards per game, with nine double-doubles.
Duncan Robinson U2.5 Three-Pointers Made (+124)
As he has been throughout his career, Robinson is a three-point specialist. His 80.8% career three-point attempt rate is one of the highest in NBA history, and his 9.9 three-point attempts per game across his seven seasons is the highest ever. His three-point attempt rate this season — 71.8% — is actually the second-lowest figure of his career. The 68.1% of his points that come from beyond the arc are the ninth-highest among 136 players who have played in at least 50 games this season and average at least 20 minutes per game.
Unfortunately, Robinson will run into one of the teams that is the best at preventing triples. Since the All-Star break, the Cavaliers have allowed just 36.6 deep tries per game, the 10th-fewest in the league, and they’ve held opponents to just a 32.0% clip, the second-lowest in basketball. Across that span, Cleveland has gotten within four feet of the shooter on 64.2% of their closeouts, one of the better rates in basketball, and it’s fourth in contested threes per game. To his credit, Robinson has hit three or more triples in three of his last four games, but this hot stretch followed a streak in which he had made two or fewer in three straight games. With some regression to the mean, the Cavaliers should be able to contain him.
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