I’ve already written up my take on the game itself here, so if you’re looking for a pick, prediction, or best bet on the spread, pop over to that piece. This one, however, will be for my favorite prop bets in the Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Florida Gators college basketball clash tonight.
It’s the biggest game on a Wednesday billing with several other marquee games (Michigan vs. Maryland, UConn vs. Marquette, Tennessee vs. Ole Miss, etc.), and so I decided to evaluate my favorite player-specific markets for Senior Night in Tuscaloosa. I run through my plays and the analyses below.
Top prop bets for Alabama vs. Florida on 3/5/25
Mark Sears 3+ three-pointers (+100)
Anyone else feel like this is an absolute bargain? Sears hasn’t chucked up fewer than eight three-point attempts since the game against Texas on February 15th. In the five games since, he’s failed to clear 11 three-point attempts only twice.
The Tide have been unleashing Sears with an incredibly competitive SEC tournament ahead, and we should expect nothing less tonight, at home for his Senior Night swan song. On any given day, Sears could have a big day from beyond the arc against this Florida defense. But it’s not just any given day.
While the Gators limit opponents to 30.6% from three, Sears has been impressive from long range, shooting 37.4% on the season. His ability to hit quick, off-the-dribble threes and capitalize on fast-break opportunities could exploit any lapses in Florida’s perimeter defense. If Sears can create space or catch Florida scrambling in transition, he’ll have plenty of chances to knock down key shots and stretch the defense.
Just around a 40% three-point shooter with an uptick in attempts the past five games. Give me Sears to make it rain thrice tonight.
Best bet: Mark Sears 3+ three-pointers
Automatically tail Mark Sears to cash 3+ three-pointers with me here!
Will Richard 14+ points (+100)
Again, even money on arguably one of the hottest players in the SEC right now? Feels like a bargain. I know Florida’s away, and they’ve had their fair share of struggles against conference opponents on the road (see: Tennessee, Georgia), but Richard’s been too hot to ignore
Richards’ scoring ability isn’t out-of-nowhere—he had a run at the end of January and beginning of Februrary during which he cleared this number in three of four games. This game’s going to be a track meet, and the scoring’s going to have to come from somewhere. Clayton Martin hasn’t posted over 20 points since January, so there’s reason to believe that, even if Martin regresses positively, Florida will still be in need of backcourt points.
It could be the sucker play, seeing as he’s hot. But 14 points at even money is good enough for me to roll the dice on a game with a total hovering right around 180 points.
Best bet: Will Richard 14+ points
Automatically back Will Richard to fill up the scorecard with me here!
Clayton Martin 5+ assists (+170)
The line right now for Martin is at 4+ assists for -130, so we’ll climb his ladder a bit. As I mentioned above, Martin’s been essential to the balance of this Florida team, but it hasn’t been necessarily via making it rain. In the same timespan he’s failed to clear 20 points, he’s also always scored more than 10 points, so the consistency is real.
There’s been a bit of variance in his assists, with some games in early-to-mid February when he approached double digit dishes, and two in a row to finish out that month with a goose egg, and a two-spot.
He’s averaging exactly 4.0 assists per game on the season, so if you want to take the conservative play at -130, I won’t begrudge you whatsoever. I just think this game is going to be a barnburner, even if it has scoring droughts. Martin’s point total is too high for me to get in on, but 5+ assists at +170 feels like a good value.
Best bet: Clayton Martin 5+ assists
Automatically climb Clayton Martin’s assist ladder with me here!
