Let’s start by acknowledging it: we’re staring down the barrel of just about potentially the best Wednesday college hoops slate of games all season. Two SEC titans, the Florida Gators and the Alabama Crimson Tide, and two Big 10 stalwarts, the Maryland Terrapins and the Michigan Wolverines, are set to clash before the clock strikes Thursday. These games have massive implications on conference championship seeding, and the bracket for the week. We need not get into how those dominos set up more to fall come Selection Sunday and March Madness.
After finally regaining some momentum in feeling out the Gators—we backed them -8.5 against the Aggies last game and hit—we’ve got a bit of a murky situation against a banged-up Alabama squad on Senior Night in Tuscaloosa.
Let’s get into the picks, predictions, and best bets for the second of these two headliners.
Alabama vs. Florida prediction, pick, best bets
Bright Lights, Big Night
Let’s begin with this: it’s Senior Night in Tuscaloosa, and Mark Sears is a senior. We love a Senior Night crowd backing a Senior Night star. It’s hard not to see flashes of Cooper Flagg’s dominance in Cameron the other night against Wake Forest. And, given the way Bama plays with tempo and loves the fast-break almost as much as they love the three-pointer, you have to imagine those aspects of their game tonight will be as spirited as they’ve yet been.
And it’s not just the Senior Night of it all; it’s the look-ahead to their matchup against No. 1 Auburn this weekend. Missouri is looming in the standings, and the ever-important SEC Tournament double-bye hangs in the balance for the Crimson Tide. And while Nate Oats knows he can’t afford to have his team get caught thinking too much about the absolute gauntlet of a schedule they’re about to endure if they intend to make a national title run, it’s fair to say that it’ll begin creeping into the psychology of his players should they start to give up a big lead to Florida.
And that’s totally possible. The matchup between Florida’s high-octane offense and Alabama’s struggling defense could tip in the Gators’ favor. Florida’s 83.8 points per game — one of the top-scoring attacks in the country — goes head-to-head with an Alabama defense surrendering 80.1 points per outing, ranking among the worst in D1. The Gators’ efficiency from the field (46.7%) and dominance on the glass (42.0 rebounds per game) could expose Alabama’s weaknesses, especially with the Crimson Tide giving up 36.3 boards per contest. While Alabama defends the perimeter well (30.1% allowed from three), their inability to force turnovers could allow Florida’s crisp ball movement to control the tempo and dictate the game.
The Gators
They Gators are also knocking down 35.4% of their shots from beyond the arc (285-of-806) and converting 71.2% from the free-throw line. We love to see they can go toe-to-toe with Bama in the deep game, but their SEC free-throw shooting has been a touch worse: 69.4%.
They’ve has dished out 458 assists this season, ranking 70th in the nation in ball movement. The Gators take care of the ball with deliberate purpose (as mentioned above), averaging just 10.6 turnovers per contest, while committing 16.6 fouls per game on defense.
This is a balanced team, and with the return of Alex Condon to the frontcourt, and some absolutely stellar play from Will Richard, this team is playing with some serious momentum.
Pick, prediction, and best bet
Maybe for the Gators, momentum will be its own reward headed into next week. I’m fading them on the road here; this group of seniors under Nate Oats deserves a bit more respect than 3.5 points (the current spread on DraftKings Sportsbook) and think Alabama leaves it all on the home court in a track meet. After all, so long as they win one of their next two games against the Gators and/or Auburn, they secure an SEC Tournament double-bye.
Florida’s penchant for losing road rematches to conference rivals should be noted: both the Vols and the Bulldogs beat them after Florida drubbed both in The Swamp. And, while Florida’s offense boasts impressive numbers, the statistical gap between these teams isn’t as wide as it seems. Alabama’s defense struggles in points allowed, but their 41.8% opponent field goal percentage ranks a solid 74th in the country, suggesting they can contest shots effectively. The Crimson Tide also hold opponents to just 30.1% from three, which could help neutralize Florida’s 35.4% outside shooting. With both teams limiting turnovers and Alabama playing on their home court — where they’ve been more consistent — the slight statistical edge for Florida might not be enough to outweigh the home-court advantage.
Give me the Gators’ susceptibility to flub on the road, plus a spread that seems to suggest the market’s really feeling Florida after their blowout of A&M; mix in a little bit of Senior Night magic in Tuscaloosa, and I think the Tide win by five-or-more.
