The LA Clippers and Phoenix Suns are two teams in different positions in the Western Conference standings entering tonight’s 10 p.m. ET clash in Arizona, but both are panicking nonetheless.
The Clippers have lost five of their six games after the All-Star break — including back-to-back losses to their crosstown rivals — and their leading scorer, Norman Powell, will be sidelined for the sixth time in seven games after straining his hamstring against the Lakers. Powell’s injury could well end his Most Improved Player chase, as he’ll only be award-eligible if he misses fewer than three of LA’s remaining 22 games.
Phoenix’s dysfunction is much greater; the Suns have lost 11 of their last 14 games, with the league’s fourth-worst net rating across that span, and they tried, unsuccessfully, to deal Kevin Durant at the trade deadline. Phoenix’s odds to make the playoffs have dropped to +1700.
The Clippers are three-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-148 on the Moneyline) and the point total is set to 224.5. Meanwhile, the Suns are +124 on the Moneyline.
Kris Dunn 10+ Points (+155)
Dunn’s offense isn’t his calling card; instead, his intractable perimeter defense is the reason why he’s been a starter for a team that has the third-best defensive rating in the NBA. In fact, his usage rate this season is the second-lowest among 10 players who have played at least 500 minutes for LA this season. He’s only attempted more than nine shots seven times this season and scored double-digit points just 12 times in 57 appearances. But in his last six games, he’s averaged 9.3 points per game and recorded three double-digit scoring outings with Powell playing just nine total minutes. That includes a game against the Detroit Pistons and both against the Lakers, and in the last 15 games, those two teams have the best and second-best defensive ratings, respectively.
Phoenix’s defense isn’t anywhere close to that. In fact, since the start of their skid, the Suns have allowed 121.3 points per 100 possessions, the worst mark in basketball. Perhaps James Harden and Kawhi Leonard will benefit more than Dunn from Powell’s absence, but with how bad Phoenix is on that end of the ball, there should be plenty of extra points to go around. I’m not sure who will guard Kris Dunn tonight, but it shouldn’t matter; of the Suns’ rotation players, the only reliable defenders are Durant and Ryan Dunn.
Ivica Zubac 15+ Rebounds (+160)
Zubac is one of the best rebounders in basketball, ranking fourth in the league in the category with 12.6 boards per game, and across its skid, Phoenix has given up the eighth-most boards per game. Zubac has had 15 or more boards 21 times this season, including in three of his last six games and five of the 13 games that he has played without Powell. He’s one of just four players this season with multiple 20-point, 20-rebound games, along with Domantas Sabonis, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Nikola Jokić.
While the Suns’ marquee acquisition this season, former Charlotte Hornets center Nick Richards, has been pretty solid overall — he has the same total rebounding percentage as Zubac — he hasn’t been able to hold down the paint quite as well during Phoenix’s current slide. In their last 14 games, the Suns are allowing the third-most second chance points and the eighth-highest offensive rebounding percentage in basketball, and Zubac would have the 18th-highest career offensive rebounding percentage in NBA history if he’d played enough games to qualify. Plus, his offensive rebounding chances have gone up from 7.5 per game before the All-Star break to 8.0 per game since Powell’s injury.
Bol Bol U1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-110)
After playing relatively sparingly in his first five-plus seasons in the NBA, Bol has developed into a critical rotation piece for Phoenix in recent weeks. Since February 1, Bol has put up 12.2 points per game while shooting 53.4% from the field and 36.5% from beyond the arc, hitting 1.8 threes per game across that span and reaching the two-triple threshold six times. He’s not Victor Wembanyama — those comparisons were ludicrous from their inception — but at seven-foot-three and a seven-foot-eight wingspan with an above-average three-point shot, Bol can always get his shot off, given that none of his 143 field goal attempts this season have been blocked.
In their last 10 games, the Clippers’ opponents have shot a league-high 39.2% from beyond the arc, which isn’t an insignificant sample size. But it’s a paradoxical trend largely driven by shooting luck: LA has given up the fewest wide-open threes in the league since February 6 and has gotten within six feet of the shooter the most times across that span, but its opponents have converted tough shots at high rates. Bol isn’t of that mold, attempting just 1.7 threes per game with a defender within six feet of him and converting at less than a 20% clip. As long as the Clippers don’t let him get wide open, they’ll be fine; he’s hit wide-open threes at a 56.3% clip this season, the highest among 323 players with at least 30 such attempts.
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