The Super Bowl is over. The NBA All-Star Game has also passed us by. Spring is officially around the corner, people, and that means one thing: Baseball. Camps opened up last week and, if you’re anything like me, you’ve been reviling in the grainy cell phone videos of pitchers throwing for the first time or hitters getting some swings in the cage.
Spring also means it’s time to bet some MLB futures on the DraftKings Sportsbook. For the purposes of this article, let’s focus on team win totals, which you can wager on by clicking here.
Kansas City Royals
Under 83.5 Wins (-110)
The Royals were a trendy pick to exceed expectations last season and, spoiler alert, they did. After not having posted a winning record in the eight years following its 2015 World Series victory, Kansas City won 86 games, defeated Baltimore in the Wild Card, then ultimately fell in the ALDS to the Yankees. It was unquestionably a fantastic result for the organization and the fans. However, in my opinion, the team has done little to build off the good vibes and momentum.
The Royals big moves this offseason were mostly in the pitching department, retaining Michael Wacha and Michael Lorenzen in free agency, then bringing in Carlos Estevez to compete with Lucas Erceg for saves at the back end of the bullpen. The team also traded for Jonathan India, who likely projects as the squad’s leadoff man. To me, India is a perfect representation of how middle-of-the-road this whole roster feels. While India is on the heels of posting a career-best .352 expected wOBA with the Reds, he’s also slashed just .247/.343/.393 with a 101 wRC+ since the beginning of 2022. Remember, Kansas City’s offense had broken by the end of 2024, registering league-worst marks in ISO (.099), wOBA (.257) and wRC+ (61) in September. If India is supposed to fix that issue, I’m left slightly underwhelmed.
Then there’s simply the matter of regression. Putting Bobby Witt Jr. aside — a man who might challenge for AL MVP every year for the next decade — Kansas City’s two best hitters in 2024 were Sal Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino. Perez is a soon-to-be 35-year-old catcher and Pasquantino hit an eye-popping .360 with runners in scoring position last season. Seth Lugo is also 35-years-old and he’s coming off a career-high 206.2 innings of work. Lugo finished his first campaign in a Royals uniform with a 3.00 ERA, but let’s just say the 3.84 ERA he posted in the second half was much more aligned with his ERA estimators than the 2.48 figure he produced prior to the All-Star Game.
PECOTA has the Royals winning 81.3 games in 2025. FanGraphs’ model says 81. To me, there are only three legitimately bad teams in the American League — White Sox, Athletics and Angels — and you could make the case that all three are improved from last year. Victories aren’t going to be easy in the AL and I believe Kansas City will find that out the hard way.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Under 77.5 Wins (-110)
I don’t want to say that there’s nothing about the Pirates that excites me in 2025, but the more I look at this roster, the harder it is to find the path to 78 wins. This is a franchise that has not reached that relatively low level of success since all the way back in 2018. In fact, in the last eight seasons, Pittsburgh has lost 100 games more often than its won 78. Woof.
So, how does this bet go sideways? It feels like the only avenue the Pirates have to overachieve this summer is by essentially becoming the NL version of the Mariners — and ask Seattle fans if that’s a pleasurable experience. Pittsburgh’s starting staff has the chance to not only be legitimate, but truly one of the league’s best if things fall the right way. Still, even the few bright spots come with asterisks. Paul Skenes is a dominant force and currently the odds-on favorite to win the National League Cy Young, per DraftKings Sportsbook. However, he’s never thrown 140 innings in an MLB season. Neither has Jared Jones. Mitch Keller’s thrown over 150 innings each of the past three years, yet he’s only once done so with an ERA below 4.00. For the second season in a row, the Pirates’ former top prospect started strong, but faded in the second-half, posting a 5.65 ERA with a 4.58 FIP after the All-Star break. Bubba Chandler and Thomas Harrington are also waiting and seemingly ready in Triple-A, though it’s doubtful either will be with the big club in April or May.
While the very young pitching staff might end up a major strength, Pittsburgh will still need to produce runs and therein lies the worry. The Pirates ranked 24th in runs scored in 2024, which actually might be a small miracle considering they sat 28th in both wOBA (.295) and wRC+ (86). The team only had three regulars finish the season with a wRC+ above 100 and one of that trio was the 38-year-old Andrew McCutchen. Additions like Tommy Pham and Spencer Horwitz simply aren’t enough to make this lineup anywhere close to league-average, especially with Horwitz expected to miss Opening Day after thumb surgery. At 4.23 runs per game, FanGraphs projects only the Marlins to have more trouble scoring runs than the Pirates among NL clubs. That’s not the kind of company you want to be keeping. Heck, Miami’s another recent example of how a promising pitching staff alone isn’t nearly enough to compete in MLB.
Toronto Blue Jays
Under 78.5 Wins (-105)
I’ve been a pessimist this whole article, but I can’t shake the feeling that the Blue Jays organization is a house of cards that is one light breeze away from caving in. Now, the timing of this article is important. I’m writing this mere hours after Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the team were unable to come to an agreement on a contract extension, likely leaving the All-Star free to explore free agency next winter. Now, that doesn’t technically impact the 2025 outlook — it might actually be positive if you’re someone who believes in the walk year narrative — but it does create uncertainly. For me, that’s a huge red flag for a team that lost 88 games in 2024 and has a farm system that sits comfortably in the bottom half of the league.
Not having Guerrero or Bo Bichette locked up past this summer can go one of two ways for Toronto. On the one hand, it could make the front office desperate to try and win in the final season of a very disappointing contention window. It’s not like we haven’t seen the Blue Jays try to spend money, and they could be just as aggressive at the trade deadline. Conversely, if this team doesn’t perform well to open the year, it could be equally aggressive in moving expiring assets come late July — particularly Bichette, who has barely had any extension talks with Toronto this offseason. Do I truly believe the Jays’ current roster is that of a below .500 squad? No. However, Toronto opens the season with a nightmarish schedule. Of its first 32 games, 29 are against the Orioles (7), Red Sox (7), Yankees (3), Astros (3), Mariners (3), Mets (3) and Braves (3). If the Blue Jays get off to a slow start, it might easily start a downward spiral from which they never recover.
Again, this is a talented group of players on paper, and the additions in the bullpen of Jeff Hoffman and Yimi Garcia should greatly assist a unit that struggled to an AL-worst 4.82 ERA and was the clear Achilles heel of the team. That said, it’s easy to poke holes. Kevin Gausman’s strikeout rate fell off a cliff in 2024 and he pitched to an inflated 4.71 xERA. Max Scherzer is 40 and injury prone. Chris Bassitt is 36 and registered a career-low 4.16 ERA last year. Even Anthony Santander, Toronto’s biggest free agent addition, comes with some risk. Santander mashed 44 long balls in his final campaign with the Orioles, yet no one in baseball outperformed their expected home run total by a wider margin (+7.6).
Would I be shocked if the 2025 Blue Jays made the postseason? Not especially. PECOTA even projects the team for a respectable 85.2 wins this season. Yet, in my opinion, it feels like there are more negative outcomes than positive when accessing this organization’s future.
