The PGA TOUR is headed to Mexico for a one-week stop south of the border on its way to Florida. While The Mexico Open doesn’t draw a ton of huge names, it should be a fun week with players on the fringes of the PGA TOUR getting a chance to step up and get a victory. With the thinner field, there are no traditional 3-ball matchups this week, so we’ll take a swing at some even tougher picks, raising the degree of difficulty and selecting from five-player “Tournament Group” props available on DraftKings Sportsbook.
If you’re not familiar with the tournament groups, let’s quickly go over the ground rules. In the matchup section of the tournament page, there are five groups of five players. Since the groups are bigger than head-to-head matchups, or even 3-balls, the odds are longer for any one player to get the win. It’s still much easier to pick the winner from this pool of five players rather than from the entire field, but all the players have odds of +250 or longer. The scoring does continue for the whole tournament, not just Round 1, so the payout will not be until the tournament concludes on Sunday.
Looking at those groups of five players, there are a few picks that stand out as my favorites, which I’ve highlighted below. For all the info on the course, format and field this week, be sure to check out Geoff Ulrich’s Cheat Sheet.
Alex Smalley (+280)
Smalley comes in as the favorite in this five-man group ahead of Jake Knapp (+330), C.T. Pan (+330), Nicolai Hojgaard (+360) and Matt Wallace (+360). Smalley comes into this event with the best form of the group, although his course history does leave a little bit to be desired.
Smalley has finished in the top-25 in three of his four events this season, including a T21 in his most recent event in Phoenix two weeks ago. The 28-year-old ranks second in the field in Total Strokes Gained, third in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and fifth in Strokes Gained: Putting over the last 24 rounds.
He did miss the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open and has missed the cut twice at this event. In his other appearance, though, he posted a T6 in 2022. In a group of five players like this, it’s better to chase spike weeks, so Smalley is a strong option here. Knapp would be my second pick in this group, and he comes with good odds, but he also has the added pressure of being the defending champ. Some players thrive in that situation, while others struggle, and this will be the first time Knapp faces that pressure.
Harry Hall (+360)
This is a crowded group of players priced in the $9,000 range for DFS. Taylor Moore (+300) and Michael Kim (+300) are the favorites, just ahead of Stephan Jaeger (+330), while Hall has the second-longest odds ahead of only Beau Hossler (+400). Hall has a good shot to thrive this week based on his recent form, and he makes a lot of sense at this plus-money spot.
This will be Hall’s third straight year playing the Mexico Open, posting a T10 in 2023 and a T33 last year. After that T33 last year, Hall caught fire later in the summer. He broke through for first PGA TOUR victory at the ISCO Championship last July on his way to posting an impressive total of 11 top-25 finishes in 2024.
He leads the field in Total Strokes Gained over the last 30 rounds and has been especially sharp with his short game and putter.
While his long-term form is outstanding, he has slipped up the past few weeks, missing the cut at the WM Phoenix Open and finishing just T58 at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Hopefully after that early exit and a week off, Hall is able to return in top form. He has a good shot winning this group.
Justin Lower (+360)
Another long-shot I like to win their group this week is Lower, who has the longest odds in the Tournament Group that includes Greyson Sigg (+300), Michael Thorbjornsen (+32), Ryan Fox (+330) and Kevin Roy (+360).
As I mentioned above with Smalley, I’m okay with not going with the safest play in the group if it gives me more potential for a “spike” week. Finishing second in a Tournament Group prop doesn’t get you any better than finishing fifth, so I like to swing for the fences, which is what I see Lower as in this group.
Lower definitely has the potential to contend. Last year, he finished T3 at this event behind only Knapp and Sami Valmaki, who pulled away from the rest of the field before the Final Round. He also finished T3 earlier this season at The American Express and, last year, had five top-10 finishes including a T2 at the World Wide Technology Championship, the PGA TOUR’s other event in Mexico.
Based on his boom-or-bust history, the 35-year-old has more of a chance to miss the cut than some of the other options in this group, but his ceiling is high enough that I’ll take him at +360 to claim the win.
