The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $500K Pitch + Putt [$100K to 1st]
The Field
The PGA TOUR added this event to the schedule in 2022 (its second event in Mexico) and subsequently moved the tournament (its third year on the PGA) to a late February time slot. Despite the move to before the year’s first major, the 2025 Mexico Open at Vidanta remains a less-than-elite field. Only three of the world’s top-40 players are in attendance, with Aaron Rai, Rasmus Hojgaard and Akshay Bhatia leading the way. Maverick McNealy was a late withdraw Sunday night.
This event has been won by betting favorites numerous times (Jon Rahm in 2022 and Tony Finau in 2023) but certainly, we have seen players longer in the betting odds rise up and challenge in this weaker field setting as well. That includes last year’s champion Jake Knapp, who went off around +4000 and outdueled Sami Valimaki, who was available at well over +10000 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Despite the lack of star power, the Mexico Open is still a full 144-man field, and the cut will take place on its usual spot this Friday, with the top-65 players and ties making the weekend.
For DFS, the lack of top-end options will create interesting game theory dynamics for larger field GPPs with lots of the bigger names likely to have huge amounts of ownership.
The Course
Vidanta Vallarta (designer: Greg Norman)
7,456 yards, par-71; Greens: Paspalum
The course this week is the same one the players have tackled the last three years in the Greg Norman-designed Vidanta Vallarta. The expansive Par 71 has four par 5s and wider fairways but also features plenty of water and bunkering in play to test players.
Vidanta is a true resort course (and plays as a Par 73 with six par 5s for the amateurs) but does have a very tropical/wild setting to it. To get to the venue, players have to travel across a huge river on a suspension bridge, so logistics mean there is some travel involved just to make it to your tee time on time. The venue is situated around six man-made mini-lakes, and there are over 100 bunkers in play. From a design standpoint, Vidanta in many ways plays as a kind of beefed-up version of Norman’s other Mexican course, El Camaleón, which hosts the Mayakoba Classic every season. However, it’s more open and has larger greens, which also allows it to compare well to other off-shore, coastal venues like Coco Beach in Puerto Rico or the Renaissance Club in Scotland.
From a mainland setting, it also profiles well with courses like Detroit Golf Club and TPC Twin Cities, two courses that 2023 winner Tony Finau has also won on before.
The venue yielded a winning score of 17-under par in 2022, and there was somewhat of an advantage for longer hitters that shone through on the leaderboard where several solid drivers — Rahm included — took center stage. Driving distance at this venue the last three years was well above the PGA’s seasonal average, and the open layout proved a fruitful playground for those ball-strikers with power who sometimes struggle around more technical venues and green structures. Last year’s winner Jake Knapp gained 2.8 strokes off the tee and bested Rahm, reaching 19-under par.
As a note, around the green play tends to be the least important factor of all the main skill categories at Vidanta, and good weather for 2025 means we’ll likely see very high GIR%’s once again — and less emphasis on ATG skill. The Paspalum greens this week, a common grass in tropical climates, also tend to play slower and are more receptive to approaches. The slower greens also tend to help out poor putters and in the last two seasons, we have seen players who typically struggle with putting on traditional PGA setups spike with that club.
Looking to big hitters this week and players trending well off the tee is a good way to start research. In 2022, all but one of the top-10 finishers at this event gained 1.5 strokes or more off the tee for the week and wider fairways means accuracy isn’t super important. While both of Norman’s PGA TOUR venues (El Camaleón and TPC San Antonio) could be used as corollaries for the week, I’d also look at past results from venues like TPC Twin Cities (3M Open), The Renaissance Club (Scottish Open) and Coco Beach (Puerto Rico Open) to help gauge who may benefit from this less traditional setup.
2025 Weather Outlook: The weather for this year’s event looks near-perfect once again. The wind should be under 10 MPH on each day, giving players the ability to go pin-seeking. The larger greens will be the biggest defense in some respects from players going low, which should again give an advantage to bigger hitters who will be approaching the greens with shorter irons. I don’t see much advantage to wave stacking. Both Thursday and Friday afternoons have slightly higher gusts than the morning waves will see but it’s unlikely to lead to a huge split. For one-day lineups, early starters would likely be preferred.
Past Winners and Stats
2024 — Jake Knapp (-19)
Last four starts, lead-in form (T28-T3-MC-T70)
SG: OTT — 2.8
SG: APP — 8.7
SG: TTG — 11.4
SG: ATG — -0.1
SG: PUTT — 3.2
- Rahm gained most of his strokes off the tee in 2022, which was a huge theme for the top finishers at this event last season as well as the top eight finishers all gained over 1.0 strokes OTT
- Finau also gained massively off the tee in 2023 but also hammered his approaches — hence the 24-under par winning score
- All of the golfers in the top 10 at Vidanta in 2023 gained strokes off the tee and nine of the 10 gained over 1.5 strokes OTT; Last year, 12 of the top 14 finishers gained over 1.0 strokes OTT
- With the wider fairways, distance certainly seems to play better than accuracy and it’s worth noting that notoriously inaccurate drivers like Eric Cole and Akshay Bhatia both gained over a 1.0 strokes OTT in 2023
- The slower green speeds also mean regularly poor putters will likely have a better chance of spiking with that club than usual — 2023 saw Tony Finau, Akshay Bhatia and Emiliano Grillo (who often struggle with the flatstick on regular venues) all gain over 4.0 strokes putting — the 3.2 strokes putting Knapp gained here last season was a career best at the time.
Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players (but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them). This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value compared to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
Niklas Norgaard Moller +4000 and $8,400
Comparables:
- Jake Knapp +4000 and $8,600
- Alex Smalley +4000 and $8,700
- Justin Lower +5000 and $8,500
Adam Svensson +5500 and $7,500
Comparables:
- Michael Thorbjornsen +5500 and $7,700
- Carson Young +6000 and $7,700
- Greyson Sigg +5000 and $8,000
Recent Form
1. Michael Kim ($9,200; T13-T2): Kim kept up his hot streak last week at Torrey Pines. The American gained strokes in every category for the second week in a row. He’ll likely be a popular target in DFS this week as a result.
2. Taylor Moore ($9,000; T9-T22): Moore finished T-9 in his last start in Phoenix and has made the cut in each of his last four events. He’s killing it off the tee and has shown improvement on his approaches this year. His putting upside makes him a legit threat for another high finish in what is traditionally a lower-scoring event.
3. Akshay Bhatia ($10,700; T9-T32): Bhatia got things rolling last week with a solid final round and a T-9 finish. He gained 4.3 strokes on approach and is coming to a course where he finished T-4 back in 2023. The American is the betting favorite and a legit threat for win number three this week.
4. Kevin Yu ($8,800; T17-T16): Yu continues to bring elite ball-striking to the table every week. He’s posted back-to-back top 20s now and also gained 3.1 strokes ATG at Torrey Pines on his way to a T-17 finish. This will be his first time playing Vidanta but his off-the-tee prowess should serve him well.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Cash Games: Bhatia potentially underrated
Bhatia is the betting favorite but at under 11k he might be a little too cheap in this field. He was top-10 last week, has two PGA wins and is one of the most talented rising stars in the game. He also finished top-eight at this event a couple of years ago. Building around him this week feels like a solid plan. There is also solid value in the 8k range with names like Smalley and Knapp (see below) who have both shown some good form of late. Down lower, I like Antoine Rozner ($7,300) and Ricky Castillo ($7,200 – see below as well) as cheaper players to fill out lineups with.
Tournaments: Nicolai Hojgaard can rebound
Nic Hojgaard ($8,100) showed some form in his last start in Phoenix where he finished T-36 and gained 4.9 strokes on approach and 3.6 strokes putting. This simpler setup in Mexico should favor him as it has other elite ball-strikers like Jake Knapp and Tony Finau, who can often get befuddled when faced with more complex greenside setups. Charley Hoffman ($7,600) has played well in Mexico before and could certainly rebound after torching people with a MC in Phoenix. Below 7k there are a few names who could pop in this kind of event and setting and offer good boom/bust appeal for GPPs: KH Lee ($6,900), Luke List ($6,900), John Pak ($6,200), and Cristobal Del Solar ($6,200).
MY PICK: Jake Knapp ($8,600)
Knapp looks like a player who could end up as a repeat winner this week in Mexico at an event he thoroughly dominated in 2024. The American has yet to post a top-10 this season but he’s made four cuts in a row and is starting to showcase the elite ball-striking that led him to a win on this course last year.
He gained a yearly best 2.4 strokes OTT at the very tough Torrey Pines and has now gained over 2.0 strokes on approach in each of his last two starts. Knapp’s putter is always a little up and down but he started the season by gaining 5.2 strokes on the notoriously tough Torrey greens and gained 3.2 strokes putting in Mexico last season, which at the time was a career-best.
I think he’s being underrated somewhat in both the DFS and betting streets and I like him as a core value to target on DraftKings, where he’s only $8,600. His lower salary will allow you to go balanced or stars and scrubs if building around him. For betting, his top 10 odds (+800 with ties) and +4000 outright price both look like solid plays on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
MY SLEEPER: Ricky Castillo ($7,200)
Castillo is a solid ball-striker who showed some form in his last start at the Farmers — where he finished T-15. The 23-year-old won on his debut on the Korn Ferry Tour a couple of years ago and managed to gain entry to the PGA this season. Like last season’s winner Jake Knapp, his strength is generally his long game and he’s gained strokes on the field off the tee in all five of his previous PGA starts.
On top of the course favoring Castillo, he’s also done well in Latin America, posting top-10 finishes in Panama, Columbia and Chile last season. A supreme ball-striker who should benefit from the slower greens in play this week, which have helped poor putters like Knapp and Finau, I like Castillo as a lower-owned target in GPPs for play on DraftKings.
For betting, his top-10 and top-20 odds (+850/+360) make him a solid ladder candidate and a player you could think about adding to any first-round leader cards this week as well.
