The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
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THE FIELD
Since there’s only one course in play, and the daylight hours are still shorter than usual, this tournament has a slightly smaller field with just 135 golfers. This week’s event isn’t a signature field tourney, but it still has a very strong field with world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and world No. 5 Hideki Matsuyama on the start list.
Last week’s winner Rory McIlroy isn’t playing but the field does include Matt Fitzpatrick, Justin Thomas, Wyndham Clark and Rickie Fowler. This event is a bit of a reprieve from the typical West Coast setups we get in that players are now at a stadium-style course, away from the ocean, and also no longer on full-fledged poa greens.
The Friday cut line also returns this week with only the top 65 and ties getting to play the weekend.
THE COURSE
TPC Scottsdale: Scottsdale, Arizona
Par 71, 7,261 yards
TPC Scottsdale underwent some minor renovations five years ago that were aimed at “toughening up” the golf course and resulted in a few holes being lengthened. Some bunkers were also moved to provide better protection for pins and to challenge players off the tee. Even with the changes, players have still managed to put up some low scores at this track, with the winners hitting between 16-19 under par the last three years.
One of the main features that make this such a fun event is the setup of the course. TPC Scottsdale is a traditional par 71, made up of three par 5s, four par 3s, and 11 par 4s, but it contains several scoring holes that encourage aggressiveness and reward great shots with chances at birdies and eagles. All of the par 5s are reachable in two by most players (especially the longer hitters), and these holes are generally three of the easiest to score on. The par 4s are mostly between 410 and 490 yards in length, and this can be where the big hitters gain their biggest advantage if they find the fairway off the tee.
There are also a couple of unique holes players encounter down the stretch, too. The 16th is a very easy par 3, except for the fact it’s set in a stadium with thousands of cheering fans who rarely stay silent. The drivable par 4 (hole 17) is also a gem, as it presents players with a huge risk vs. reward scenario coming home and can be a huge momentum shifter later in the round. In 2021, Brooks Koepka eagled this hole in the final round on his way to the win.
The desert setting of the course gives it a semi-links-like feel, but with tighter fairways and water in play on six of the final nine holes, it really sets up as more of a target golf environment. The average driving distance here is 10-12 yards more than the PGA TOUR average, but we’ve seen shorter hitters compete here regularly (see Webb Simpson and Nick Taylor, who won in 2020 and 2024), and past winners have tended to gain mostly on approach and via the greens with the putter.
Five of the last seven winners at TPC Scottsdale gained +5.0 or more strokes on their approaches over the field, so if a distance disadvantage off the tee is to be overcome, players will need a great week with their irons. Dominate off-the-tee play and putting can carry a player, but for shorter hitters, the key to TPC Scottsdale is great mid-to-long iron play. The 150-175 yards distance is an important basket for proximity stats, with five par 4s ranging between 450-500 yards.
Ultimately, Scottsdale is a stadium test similar to some of the other tougher TPC venues we see on the PGA TOUR. TPC Sawgrass is somewhat of a decent comparable in that elite ball striking and good scrambling/putting is primary to success at both venues, and players can’t necessarily bomb their way around either course. Since Scottsdale is such an all-around test it also makes course history somewhat more important this week than others (see the winning trends below), and a good week to lean on the course horses who have been dominant here throughout their careers.
2025 weather outlook: The weather this year looks ideal. While this venue can struggle with cooler desert temperatures and sometimes even a little rain or high winds, there is none of that in the forecast for this February. Temperatures will top out around 75-80F for all four days and winds will be calm almost the whole way through, with Saturday potentially having a few gusts approaching 10 MPH. For DFS, there isn’t much reason to expect a huge wave split this season over the first two days, so wave stacking in classic lineups isn’t recommended. That said, these greens can still get crusty in the afternoon, especially later in the week, so if you’re playing one-day tournaments I’d still lean toward early starters where possible.
LAST 5 WINNERS
2024-Nick Taylor -21 (over Charley Hoffman playoff)
2023—Scottie Scheffler -19 (over Nick Taylor -17)
2022—Scottie Scheffler -16 (over Patrick Cantlay playoff)
2021—Brooks Koepka -19 (over Kyoung-Hoon Lee -18)
2020—Webb Simpson -17 (over Tony Finau playoff)
WINNING TRENDS
- Of the last 14 winners, 13 have had a T-7 or better finish in one of their last five starts before their win at the WMPO.
- Each of the past nine winners of the WMPO had posted a top-10 finish at this event in a season prior to their win.
Winners Stats and Course Detail
2024: Nick Taylor (21-under par)
2024 lead-in form (T71-MC-T7-T52-T21)
SG: Off the Tee—+0.1
SG: Approach— +5.1
SG: Tee to Green—+7.3
SG: ATG—+2.1
SG: Putting—+8.9
- Phoenix might be one of the best all-around tests of the season, as players who can spike in multiple different categories often do well here.
- Scheffler dominated off the tee on his first win but has putted well at this venue in both of his wins — and it’s worth noting that five of the top-10 finishers at this event in 2022 gained over 5.0 strokes putting.
- Last season’s winner Nick Taylor led the field in SG Putting stats
- Three of the last four winners ranked in the top three for the week in strokes gained approach stats, with 2020 winner Webb Simpson gaining 7.5 strokes on approach for the week and 2023 winner (Scheffler) gaining +9.5 strokes on approach.
- Driving Distance also tends to get emphasized here more than it does at other venues, and only three of the past nine winners ranked outside the top 30 for the week in driving distance (Matsuyama 2016, Webb Simpson 2020).
- Winners have still gained most of their strokes via Putting and Approach so while good OTT play is important, a disadvantage OTT can still be overcome (much like Taylor did last season by gaining 8.9 strokes putting)
- As for approaches, the most popular range tends to be between 150-175 yards, but there are also plenty of > 200-yard shots in play with three par 5’s and five par 4s in the 450-500 range.
Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players (but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them). This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value compared to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
Jordan Spieth $8,700 and +6500
Comparable
J.J. Spaun $7,900 and +6500
Comparable
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
HORSES FOR COURSES
1. Scottie Scheffler ($12,000; best finishes: win – 2023, win – 2022): It’s hard to argue with the success that Scheffler has had at TPC Scottsdale. The last three seasons he’s shot a combined 43-under par and has dominated on these greens, gaining 4.2 and 6.5 strokes putting in both of his wins.
2. Hideki Matsuyama ($10,200; best finishes: win – 2017, 2016): Matsuyama has won this event twice and has finished T-4 or better in four of the nine instances where he’s started and finished the event (WD-2018). The Japanese superstar’s impressive tee-to-green works wonders in this tougher desert environment, and he is just a couple of starts removed from a win in Hawaii.
3. Rickie Fowler ($7,600; best finishes: win – 2019, second – 2010 and 2016): Fowler won this event in 2019 and has finished T-11 or better in five of the past nine seasons, a run that also includes a playoff loss to Matsuyama in 2016.
4. Justin Thomas ($10,500; best finishes: 2020 – T3, 2019 – third): Thomas has played at the WM Phoenix Open in each of the past eight years and finished no worse than T-13 in his last seven starts at TPC Scottsdale (T-12 last season). He’s ranked second in strokes gained total stats at this week’s venue, despite never winning this event. After a couple of solid starts to begin his year, a win this week wouldn’t be overly shocking.
5. Sahith Theegala ($9,500; best finishes: T3-2022, T5-2024): Theegala has impressed at this venue in limited starts. He nearly won on his debut back in 2022 and posted another strong finish last season with a T-5. He is priced up now so his course form is somewhat baked in, but he’s still a name who could pop at this event any season.
RECENT FORM
1. Sepp Straka ($9,400, Recent finishes: T7-win): Straka continued his impressive tear last week. He led after three rounds and finished T-7 gaining over 2.0 strokes ATG and on APP. He’ll look for a third straight top 10 this week.
2. Lee Hodges ($7,100, Recent finishes: T33-T9): Hodges had a solid week at Pebble right up until hole 18 on Sunday, where he took a quad bogey. The American is striking it well and has three top 10s over his last five PGA starts.
3. Sam Stevens ($7,600, Recent finishes: T17-T2): Stevens continued his impressive play last week, one week after coming up a shot short at Torrey Pines. He’s gaining big off the tee right now but will need his irons to rebound around the more accuracy-driven TPC Scottsdale.
4. Tom Kim ($9,600, Recent finishes: T7-MC): Kim started the season slowly but came to life last week at Pebble Beach where he finished T-7 and gained 4.2 strokes putting. He’s looking for his first win in over a year this week in Phoenix.
5. SungJae Im ($9,800, Recent finishes: T33-T4): Im fell back a little at Pebble beach with a T-33 but has still had a nice start to the season. He has two top 10s in four starts and will be playing a course in Scottsdale where he finished T-6 two seasons ago.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Cash Games: Go Full Scottie
If you got away with fading Scottie Scheffler ($12,000) last week, congrats. But I would not recommend double-dipping this week. These stadium environments have been Scheffler’s big moneymakers the last few seasons and TPC Scottsdale is a venue where he’s rarely disappointed, having finished T-3, first and first the last three seasons. Going with Scheffler means looking for better low-priced value to stack alongside him. J.J. Spaun ($7,900) rates out well at under 8k this week, as does Matt Fitzpatrick ($7,700). Further down, Tom Hoge and Lucas Glover at $7,400 also rate out as solid targets.
Tournaments: McNealy could rise up
Maverick McNealy ($8,800) disappointed a little last week but his body of work over the last 5-10 events has been impressive and he finished T-6 at this venue last season. The American is a West Coast native and is still gaining strokes on approach at a higher rate than he usually does, so if/when he bounces back with his putter (usually his best club), we can expect another big finish. Further down, I’m also prone to give Daniel Berger ($7,400) another shot who looked great in the fall and was T-21 in Palm Springs two weeks ago. He’s got multiple top-10 finishes at Scottsdale. Other GPP targets this week to consider under 7k include Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($6,900), Matti Schmid ($6,700), Kyoung-Hoon Lee ($6,600), and Joel Dahmen ($6,400).
MY PICK: Kurt Kitayama ($8,900)
I think there is a good chance we see Scottie Scheffler ($12,000) return to form this week and bag another win at TPC Scottsdale, but in terms of players who are a little more back in the pack, Kitayama is a name I could see going very under the radar this week.
He didn’t play Pebble and at 82nd in the current OWGR standings, needs a big winter/spring to qualify for Augusta. Kitayama has also excelled in the desert. Last season he placed T-25 in Utah and then T-9 in Vegas in back-to-back starts and has found TPC Scottsdale much to his liking as well, placing T-8 here last season and T-23 on debut back in 2023. He’s also excelled at several other venues that integrate water and tougher approaches into their setups, landing a win at the comparable Bay Hill in 2023 and a T-3 at the tougher PGA National in 2022. Past Scottsdale winners Scottie Scheffler (winner Bay Hill 2022 and 2024) and Rickie Fowler (winner PGA National 2017) have also found those setups to their liking.
Kitayama can be up and down with the putter, so it’s notable that he’s gained over 3.0 strokes on the Scottsdale greens on both of his starts. While he started 2025 without any notable results, he ended 2024 with a T-5 at the Zozo Championship in Japan and is still gaining a lot off the tee and showing improvement with his short game, where he’s also gained strokes in three straight starts.
At $8,900 this week, I think a lot of DFS players will avoid him for cheaper options who have shown a little more form in 2025. He’s a solid contrarian/pivot option for me in larger field DFS tournaments and also a nice outright option at +6000 on DraftKings Sportsbook. We’ve seen him beat a tough Scheffler-led field before and there is no reason to think he can’t come up big again on a similar course this week.
MY SLEEPER: Tom Hoge ($7,400)
To be honest, I’m not sure how much of a sleeper Hoge will be this week. For a player who has gained 2.5+ strokes on approach in four straight starts and posted a solid T-17 last week at Pebble Beach, he looks remarkably cheap at $7,400.
Hoge also has some solid history at this week’s venue and sets up well for these stadium tests. He’s finished T17-MC-T14 at TPC Scottsdale the last two seasons, with both of his top-20 finishes having him gain over 2.0 strokes on the greens. Further, Hoge has never lost strokes on approach in any of his seven career starts at Scottsdale and has gained 2.7 strokes or more on approach in each of his last three starts. He’s also finished T-3 at TPC Sawgrass and TPC River Highlands, two venues where multiple-time Scottsdale winner Scottie Scheffler has also won.
After an up-and-down start in Hawaii (T8-T45) that saw him lose strokes OTT in two straight events, Hoge has righted the ship somewhat and gained strokes OTT now in his last two starts. If his putter gets going this week, he’s someone whose irons will allow him to keep up with the Schefflers of the world at a venue like Scottsdale.
At just $7,400 in price for DFS, he’s a solid value play to consider and at +550 /+260 in the top 10/20 market, he makes for a nice investment on DraftKings Sportsbook as well.
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