Throughout the Kansas City Chiefs’ dynasty, they’ve never really had an elite wide receiver, which is scary news for the rest of the NFL, given that they’ve won each of the last two Super Bowls.
On paper, this year’s squad might have the best wideout options, given that the Chiefs drafted Xavier Worthy ($5,500) 28th overall during the summer, welcomed JuJu Smith-Schuster ($3,200) back after a one-year stint with the New England Patriots, traded for DeAndre Hopkins ($4,700) during the season, and signed Hollywood Brown ($4,200) in free agency. Add that to the return of Justin Watson ($3,000) and it becomes clear that Kansas City has made some real progress in that department.
A wide receiver corps that’s merely mediocre, not outright bad, sounds like a gift to Patrick Mahomes ($6,000), arguably the greatest quarterback ever, right?
They might not have made a huge impact in the regular season, but the new acquisitions will be vital if the Chiefs want to make another deep playoff run. It’s a decent bet that Worthy will have some impact, given that he was the only Kansas City wideout to make a catch in the team’s Divisional Round win over the Houston Texans. But of Hopkins and Brown, who has more DFS value for the AFC Championship Game?
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Mahomes targeted Hopkins just once and Brown just twice in the Divisional Round, and neither made a catch, so I’m not expecting huge performances from either of them on Sunday, even against a Buffalo Bills defense that allowed the 17th-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts — the most of any team remaining in the postseason. Honestly, the only pass-catcher I really trust on the Chiefs is the ageless wonder, tight end Travis Kelce ($6,000).
I prefer Brown to Hopkins, though. Although Hopkins is a likely Hall of Famer and one of the best receivers of his generation, he’s clearly past his prime. This season, he recorded just 610 receiving yards between stints in Tennessee and Kansas City, the first time he has failed to record 1,000 receiving yards in a full season since his rookie year in 2013. He did have one vintage performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in his second week in a Chiefs uniform, but other than that, his Kansas City stint has been fairly disappointing.
Brown, meanwhile, suffered a serious shoulder injury in the preseason and didn’t make his debut until Week 16, so he’s still acclimating to the Chiefs offense. He appeared in just 45 snaps across two regular-season games (33% of all available snaps), but he still hauled in nine catches for 91 yards and garnered a 19.0% target share, the second-highest on the team, behind only Kelce. In the two games that the pair played together, Hopkins saw his snap share decrease to just 48%, and Mahomes threw to him only eight times, compared to Brown’s 15.
In the win over the Texans, too, Brown played 67% of snaps and Hopkins just 31%. Perhaps head coach Andy Reid was trying to protect the 32-year-old Hopkins — who’s slightly worse as a run-blocker than Brown — but it seems like the pecking order is clear: it’s Kelce, then Worthy, then Brown, then Hopkins.
Perhaps Mahomes will target both Brown and Hopkins more against the Bills, whose cornerback depth falls off after Christian Benford, who’s currently questionable with a concussion. While Benford is Pro Football Focus’ fifth-ranked cornerback, nickelback Taron Johnson is 75th and the other outside back is 95th-ranked Rasul Douglas. To make matters worse for Buffalo, safeties Taylor Rapp and Damar Hamlin have both struggled in coverage this season.
Brown lines up primarily in the slot, so he shouldn’t get much action — if any — against Benford, and instead can target Johnson. He might also draw matchups against Rapp or Hamlin, each of whom has allowed a passer rating over 100 this season. Overall, the Bills have been around the middle of the pack in terms of both yards and touchdowns conceded to opposing receivers.
