One of the best betting weekends of the season is upon us, with a terrific Divisional slate in the NFL. I’ve been posting plays on Twitter all week in real time, and may continue to add leading up to the weekend. You can find my article on all four games here, but below is my betting breakdown for Ravens vs. Bills.
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (Sunday 6:30pm ET)
This is the heavyweight matchup of the weekend, and has the potential to be one of the games of the year. I’ll admit, backing Baltimore’s secondary going up against Josh Allen is frightening, but I think the Bills are going to have an even more difficult time stopping what the Ravens do on the ground.
Buffalo’s pass defense also ranks in the bottom half of the NFL as well, so it’s not like there’s a glaring advantage for one side here. Baltimore’s run defense ranks atop the NFL, while Buffalo is around the middle of the pack. That said, the Bills got steamrolled on the ground when these teams met in September — Derrick Henry put up a 24-199-1 line on the ground and caught a touchdown, while Lamar Jackson posted 6-54-1 as a rusher. It’s worth noting, it was a desperation spot for Baltimore, who was 1-2 and coming off a poor second half against Dallas.
Despite the slow start to the season, the Ravens are playing their best football of the season, and the Bills have a tall task to stop this rushing attack. Jackson is having a career-season as a passer, and I expect him to make some big plays through the air that are the difference in this game, and also open up the running game for the Ravens to finish the game.
The weather looks like it will be a factor here, and while Buffalo might be more experienced in the elements, I would not want to be on the defense tasked with stopping Henry on Sunday night. Henry has now ripped off at least 138 rushing yards in four straight games, and I’m expecting another big one here en route to a road victory.
The Play: Ravens ML (-115) – 2-units
The Play: Derrick Henry OVER 97.5 Rushing Yards (-110) – 1-unit
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
