One of the best betting weekends of the season is upon us, with a terrific Divisional slate in the NFL. I’ve been posting plays on Twitter all week in real time, and may continue to add leading up to the weekend. Let’s breakdown the plays I have so far below.
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (Saturday 4:30pm ET)
Interestingly enough, the Texans and Chiefs were the only teams to finish the regular season under .500 ATS, yet make the playoffs. Someone’s going to cover on Saturday afternoon, and when these teams met less than a month ago at Arrowhead Stadium, it was the Chiefs. Remember, that was a weird game, as Kansas City was initially an underdog with Patrick Mahomes coming off an ankle injury, and playing a short week Saturday game.
Mahomes obviously wound up playing in that one, and KC won 27-19 as three-point favorites. Now we have a significantly inflated line, although you could argue the previous number was much too short, and influenced by the Mahomes injury. I’m not laying more than a touchdown with the Chiefs in this spot, mostly because of how much respect I have for Houston’s defense — specifically in the secondary. That said, the Chiefs have plenty of advantages of their own in this game, and we know how they tend to grind out these postseason games.
I was on Houston last week, and the offense was nothing to write home about. The defense was spectacular, and benefited from some atrocious turnovers from Justin Herbert. Mahomes isn’t going to make the same mistakes at home here. But C.J. Stroud might, in a rowdy road atmosphere against an elite Kansas City defense.
I also think the Chiefs should be able to move the ball on the ground in this game. Isiah Pacheco has been eased back in since returning from a broken leg, but this should be a spot that he’s unleashed. Pacheco and Kareem Hunt shared time from late November through Christmas, but we know Andy Reid wants Pacheco to be the featured back in big games. Pacheco hasn’t played since Christmas Day, like most of Kansas City’s key players, so he got about three and a half weeks to get back to full health. Expect a big workload for Pacheco against a Houston run defense that ranked 12th in yards per game allowed on the ground.
Numbers are shifting throughout the week, but any teaser that gets both Kansas City and Detroit to -2.5 or better is good with me, and Pacheco rushing props up to 50.
The Play: 6PT Teaser KC -1.5/DET -2.5 (-120) – 2-units
The Play: Isiah Pacheco OVER 43.5 Rushing Yards (-110) – 1-unit
The Play: Isiah Pacheco 50+ Rushing Yards (+130) – 0.5-units
Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (Saturday 8:00pm ET)
This is a really tough spot for Washington, coming off a road playoff win on Sunday night, and now going on the road again to face a well rested Lions team on a short week. Detroit’s been battling injuries during the second half of the season, so the bye was crucial for this team. I just see too many advantages here for the Lions, in what should be a much more difficult home field advantage for Jayden Daniels and company to deal with in Detroit.
The Lions are going to be significantly more difficult to stop for a shaky Washington defense than Tampa was, specifically on the ground. The Commanders entered the postseason as the 30th-ranked rush defense in terms of yards per game allowed, and when the Bucs briefly pounded the rock in the third quarter, they had a lot of success.
Washington also had some serious struggles converting on fourth downs and in the red zone in Tampa, and as we saw in Week 18 against the Vikings, Detroit’s defense is strong in those spots. The Lions will also be super aggressive on offense, and Washington’s defense has been poor at getting big stops. I’m expecting a lot of these key plays at the end of drives to go Detroit’s way.
Tampa inexplicably went away from the ground game for much of the game, though, which the Lions will not do. Strong leans to both Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 82.5 Rushing Yards and Lions Team Total OVER 32.5, which I think tie in nicely to the matchup for Detroit. If the Lions don’t get back to 8.5, I’d still lay extra juice on a 7-point teaser.
The Play: 6PT Teaser KC -1.5/DET -2.5 (-120) – 2-units
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday 3:00pm ET)
Due to the game being moved to Arizona on Monday night, the Rams are in a similar spot to the Commanders here. They’ll be on the road for the second time in a row, and on a short week, not to mention that Los Angeles will be playing outdoors in the northeast. In a more even scenario, I’d be tempted to take the Rams here. I lean to Philly at home as the side, but have a lot of respect for the Rams, given their quarterback, coach and defense. You could talk me into teasing either side in this game as well, and while I may come around on a tease, I did make a play on the total right when this game hit the board.
These are two terrific defenses that are playing at the top of their game, and also recently saw each other in the regular season. While we saw a lot of points on that Sunday Night Football matchup in Los Angeles, taking things out into the elements in Philadelphia in January, along with the familiarity of the recent matchup, and I think we see a grinder here.
The Eagles allowed the fewest points in the NFL this season, and their numbers were even better at home, where they allowed just 15.3 PPG. The Rams were right around league average in points allowed, but improved as the season went on, and had the third-best road defense in PPG allowed at 19.
I expect both pass rushes to make an impact in this game, and both secondaries to make some plays. Both teams also should be looking to hand the ball off, and while they are capable of big plays, that should also chew some clock. I think we see a low scoring game here, and would play the total down to 44.
The Play: UNDER 45.5 (-110) – 1-unit
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (Sunday 6:30pm ET)
This is the heavyweight matchup of the weekend, and has the potential to be one of the games of the year. I’ll admit, backing Baltimore’s secondary going up against Josh Allen is frightening, but I think the Bills are going to have an even more difficult time stopping what the Ravens do on the ground.
Buffalo’s pass defense also ranks in the bottom half of the NFL as well, so it’s not like there’s a glaring advantage for one side here. Baltimore’s run defense ranks atop the NFL, while Buffalo is around the middle of the pack. That said, the Bills got steamrolled on the ground when these teams met in September — Derrick Henry put up a 24-199-1 line on the ground and caught a touchdown, while Lamar Jackson posted 6-54-1 as a rusher. It’s worth noting, it was a desperation spot for Baltimore, who was 1-2 and coming off a poor second half against Dallas.
Despite the slow start to the season, the Ravens are playing their best football of the season, and the Bills have a tall task to stop this rushing attack. Jackson is having a career-season as a passer, and I expect him to make some big plays through the air that are the difference in this game, and also open up the running game for the Ravens to finish the game.
Henry has now ripped off at least 138 rushing yards in four straight games, and I’m expecting another big one here en route to a road victory.
The Play: Ravens ML (-115) – 2-units
The Play: Derrick Henry OVER 97.5 Rushing Yards (-110) – 1-unit
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
