One of the best betting weekends of the season is upon us, with a terrific Divisional slate in the NFL. I’ve been posting plays on Twitter all week in real time, and may continue to add leading up to the weekend. You can find my article on all four games here, but below is my betting breakdown for Texans at Chiefs.
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (Saturday 4:30pm ET)
Interestingly enough, the Texans and Chiefs were the only teams to finish the regular season under .500 ATS, yet make the playoffs. Someone’s going to cover on Saturday afternoon, and when these teams met less than a month ago at Arrowhead Stadium, it was the Chiefs. Remember, that was a weird game, as Kansas City was initially an underdog with Patrick Mahomes coming off an ankle injury, and playing a short week Saturday game.
Mahomes obviously wound up playing in that one, and KC won 27-19 as three-point favorites. Now we have a significantly inflated line, although you could argue the previous number was much too short, and influenced by the Mahomes injury. I’m not laying more than a touchdown with the Chiefs in this spot, mostly because of how much respect I have for Houston’s defense — specifically in the secondary. That said, the Chiefs have plenty of advantages of their own in this game, and we know how they tend to grind out these postseason games.
I was on Houston last week, and the offense was nothing to write home about. The defense was spectacular, and benefited from some atrocious turnovers from Justin Herbert. Mahomes isn’t going to make the same mistakes at home here. But C.J. Stroud might, in a rowdy road atmosphere against an elite Kansas City defense.
I also believe the Chiefs should be able to move the ball on the ground in this game. Isiah Pacheco has been eased back in since returning from a broken leg, but this should be a spot that he’s unleashed. Pacheco and Kareem Hunt shared time from late November through Christmas, but we know Andy Reid wants Pacheco to be the featured back in big games. Pacheco hasn’t played since Christmas Day, like most of Kansas City’s key players, so he got about three and a half weeks to get back to full health. Expect a big workload for Pacheco against a Houston run defense that ranked 12th in yards per game allowed on the ground.
Numbers are shifting throughout the week, but any teaser that gets both Kansas City and Detroit to -2.5 or better is good with me, and Pacheco rushing props up to 50.
The Play: 6PT Teaser KC -1.5/DET -2.5 (-120) – 2-units
The Play: Isiah Pacheco OVER 43.5 Rushing Yards (-110) – 1-unit
The Play: Isiah Pacheco 50+ Rushing Yards (+130) – 0.5-units
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
