One of the best betting weekends of the season is upon us, with a terrific Divisional slate in the NFL. I’ve been posting plays on Twitter all week in real time, and may continue to add leading up to the weekend. You can find my article on all four games here, but below is my betting breakdown for Commanders at Lions.
Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (Saturday 8:00pm ET)
This is a really tough spot for Washington, coming off a road playoff win on Sunday night, and now going on the road again to face a well rested Lions team on a short week. Detroit’s been battling injuries during the second half of the season, so the bye was crucial for this team. I just see too many advantages here for the Lions, in what should be a much more rowdy home field advantage for Jayden Daniels and company to deal with in Detroit.
The Lions are going to be significantly more difficult to stop for a shaky Washington defense than Tampa was, specifically on the ground. The Commanders entered the postseason as the 30th-ranked rush defense in terms of yards per game allowed, and when the Bucs briefly pounded the rock in the third quarter, they had a lot of success.
Washington also had some serious struggles converting on fourth downs and in the red zone in Tampa, and as we saw in Week 18 against the Vikings, Detroit’s defense is strong in those spots. The Lions will also be super aggressive on offense, and Washington’s defense has been poor at getting big stops. I’m expecting a lot of these key plays at the end of drives to go Detroit’s way.
Tampa inexplicably went away from the ground game for much of the game, though, which the Lions will not do. Strong leans to both Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 82.5 Rushing Yards and Lions Team Total OVER 32.5, which I think tie in nicely to the matchup for Detroit. If the Lions don’t get back to 8.5, I’d still lay extra juice on a 7-point teaser.
The Play: 6PT Teaser KC -1.5/DET -2.5 (-120) – 2-units
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
