The College Football Playoff semifinals continue with a high-profile matchup between Ohio State and Texas. Here are the betting splits and most popular player prop bets at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Ohio State is a six-point favorite over Texas with a total of 53.5 in the Cotton Bowl.
Betting Splits
Ohio State has dominated its first two opponents of the CFP, defeating Tennessee 42-17 and defeating Oregon 41-21. Meanwhile, Texas barely scraped by Arizona State in overtime in their quarterfinal matchup. The public is backing the Buckeyes to keep that dominance rolling. 76% of the bets and 76% of the handle are on the Ohio State moneyline.
When it comes to the spread, an even greater amount of the public is on the Buckeyes, as they are getting 81% of the bets. They are getting 79% of the handle, so there is a very small indication of bigger bets leaning toward the Longhorns, but it is mostly all Buckeyes on the spread and the moneyline.
When it comes to the total, the public is loving the over. 76% of bets have the game going over 53.5 points. Ohio State has scored over 40 points itself in each of its first two playoff games and Texas has had a prolific passing attack at times this season, so the public trusts the offenses to rule the day. However, there is a massive disparity when it comes to money. Despite getting 76% of the bets to the over, only 54% of the handle is on the over.
A 22% difference from bet percentage to handle percentage is very significant, indicating that bigger bettors are fading the public and taking the under. Despite both offenses performing well so far in the CFP, these are two of the top three passing defenses in the country, measured by defensive EPA/pass. Therefore, bigger bettors are relying on the offenses regressing to the mean against elite defensive competition.
Most Popular Player Props
Here are the top five most-bet player props for the Cotton Bowl:
- Jeremiah Smith Anytime TD (-195)
- Jeremiah Smith 2+ TDs (+270)
- First TD Scorer- Jeremiah Smith (+425)
- Will Howard 3+ Passing TDs (+220)
- Jeremiah Smith 100+ Receiving Yards (+110)
It’s safe to say that the public is enthralled by freshman phenom wide receiver Jeremiah Smith. Four of the five most popular player props for the game involve Smith and the fifth is for Will Howard to throw touchdowns to Smith and his fellow receivers. Jeremiah Smith has had an amazing freshman season, but specifically in the CFP, he has been the standout performer of the entire postseason. In Ohio State’s two games, Smith has combined for 290 receiving yards and four touchdowns. Texas will need to focus all of its efforts on slowing down Smith if they want to win this game.
Since the five most popular player props are all on Ohio State players, here are the two most bet player props on the Texas side:
- Matthew Golden Anytime TD (+125)
- Gunnar Helm Anytime TD (+195)
Matthew Golden is the Longhorns’ leading receiver this season and he is coming off of a massive performance against Arizona State. Golden had 149 yards and a touchdown in the quarterfinals and bettors are backing him to find the end zone again in this game. Tight end Gunnar Helm has also been one of Ewers’ most reliable targets all season. Most importantly, Helm has found the end zone in each of Texas’ two playoff games. Against a tough Ohio State defense, Quinn Ewers is likely to look to his most consistent targets, which would be Golden and Helm.
Check out my favorite player prop bets for the Ohio State vs. Texas game here.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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