May we all try—Chargers fans everywhere—to cast the memories of Maxx Crosby shredding Storm Norton in the Week 18 win-and-in game between the Bolts and the Las Vegas Raiders, in which we saw Justin Herbert futilely mouthing prayers for a tie on the sideline so as to make it to the wild card round. No Chargering their way out of the playoffs at the eleventh hour this year. Your identity-overhauled Los Angeles Chargers are locked in as the five-seed in the AFC, and head to Houston to face C.J. Stroud and the Texans this Saturday. Chargers playoff bets are, for the first time in many years, live and bustling.
And who’s got it better than the Herbaughs (sic)? Let me hear you in the back: nobody. The Jim Harbaugh/Joe Horitz era in Los Angeles began with the drafting of star rookie LT Joe Alt out of Notre Dame, who’s become part of an offensive trench unit that allowed the Chargers to assert themselves game-after-game. Their 11-6 record feels precisely proportionate to their talent, without any last-minute-hail-mary or luck-of-the-draw turnovers to seal a game. They’re as 11-6 as 11-6 can get.
Right now, the Chargers are +3000 to win the Super Bowl on DraftKings Sportsbook. That’s good for the sixth-longest future odds of any playoff team, right in front of their neighbors, the Los Angeles Rams, who clock in at +4000 to take home the Lombardi Trophy.
How the Chargers’ season compares to those of other playoff teams
The offensive identity is what gets the most headlines, what with Justin Herbert finally having a season where he’s pointing us toward the ceiling of his abilities both regarding efficiency and dynamic mobility. J.K. Dobbins, but for an MCL tear in the latter half of the season, might have been a shoo-in for Comeback Player of the Year. And behind stud rookie standout WR Ladd McConkey are myriad pass-catchers who’ve gained Herbert’s trust: Quentin Johnston, Joshua Palmer, Will Dissly, and Stone Smartt (with a sprinkle of Derius Davis).
But DC Jesse Minter’s unit of run-supporting, ball-hawking, hybrid-effective linebackers and secondary personnel has been clanging and banging all year long, too. Let’s take a look at how complete a team this first-year Harbaugh Bolts squad is, and how it might stand up to the playoff bracket such as it stands.
Statistically, the Chargers hover around the top-ten in the league in almost every efficiency category, but only at the fringes.
According the this graphic below from rbsdm stats, as far as efficiency goes in terms of forward-facing playoff performance, the Chargers are clustered in terms of their quality right around teams like the Packers, Vikings, and Broncos—all, themselves, Wild Card teams and not division winners.
And yet it certainly feels like the Chargers could give both the Packers and the Vikings, especially, a run for their money. Think again about the total team identity. Vikings are struggling a bit trying to figure out how to maximize Sam Darnold’s arm talent on dropbacks, as they struggled to move the ball at all against an identity-driven Detroit Lions team in Week 18. And the Packers have been a rollercoaster all season long, what with all their injuries and special teams woes.
Advanced efficiency metrics for the 2024-2025 Los Angeles Chargers team
Offensively, this Herbert-led Chargers unit ranks 12th in total EPA/play, as the graphic below shows, 20th in the NFL in EPA success rate, 13th in the league in EPA/dropback, 18th in dropback success rate, and 18th in the league in total rush EPA/play.
It’s been the defensive phase, really, that’s been most elite for this Chargers team in 2024-2025. They rank fifth in total EPA/play allowed, fifth as well in total EPA/dropback allowed, sixth in success rate per dropback allowed, and ninth in total EPA/rush allowed.
This stacks up with the most elite defenses in the playoff bracket. The Chargers’ defensive efficiency rankings hover right around that of the Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles, and Denver Broncos.
And, to be clear, this is a defense that ranked 24th in the league in total scoring last year.
Assessing the Chargers by DVOA
DVOA: According to FTN Fantasy, DVOA is “measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent.” Here’s how the Bolts ranked in each DVOA figure this season.
- Total offensive DVOA: 6.4 (11th)
- Offensive passing DVOA: 29.2% (tenth)
- Defensive rushing DVOA: -10.0% (19th)
- Total defensive DVOA: -5.1% (tenth)
- Defensive passing DVOA: -2.2% (sixth)
- Defensive rushing DVOA: -9.2% (17th)
How they got here:
Identity, Identity, Identity. They shoved it down every team’s throat. Joe Alt ended the year as Pro Football Focus’s 19th-best tackle in his rookie season. Not elite by any means, but a skyward-pointing vector, for sure. Jesse Minter mutated this defensive unit from the punchline of the joke to an absolute boogeyman, in the same way Harbaugh overhauled the offensive line to keep Justin Herbert upright.
All of the above statistics would not have been possible without the Horitz/Harbaugh cultural overhaul. This is a football team of football guys, now. And they’re here to play the sport with joy in January; that might just be enough to get hot, stay hot, and make an impressive run into February.
Playoff Outlook
Game 1: at Houston Texans on Wild Card Saturday
I said in our DKN Wild Card Weekend predictions roundtable: I think the only lock of the weekend might be how thoroughly the Chargers roll the Texans. Flat out, this is an elite pass-rushing unit against a patchwork, oft-injured, and underperforming Houston offensive line. Laremy Tunsil at LT has been the only elite offensive line position this season for the Texans, where he’s allowing a 0.4%. RT Titus Howard has also been effective, only allowing a sack percentage of 1.1%; however, both these tackles have allowed right around a league average 8.5% quarterback pressures. Guards Shaq Mason and Juice Scruggs both allow well-below-league-average time to pressure (TTP), at 2.68 seconds and 2.84 seconds, respectively.
Do I imagine this will create difficulty for the Chargers’ pass rush to get home? Not really. Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack will require all of Tunsil’s and Howard’s attention on the edges, and that will leave the interior rush to fluster and punish C.J. Stroud.
The Chargers will likely get out to an early lead in this one, so I can see folks wanting to take the Chargers first half spread. Second halves haven’t exactly been their forte this year (more stats on that later), so they’ll need to correct that. But with a vastly superior offensive line that should be able to handle Will Anderson, Jr. & co., and the vastly superior collective coaching of Harbaugh and Minter vs. Demeco Ryans and his staff, the Chargers will win this one handily. The NFL will get Harbuagh in the Divisional Round.
Best bet: Chargers -3
Outcome: Chargers 27, Texans 17
How the Chargers can make a deep playoff run
Improve second-half offensive efficiency (they average just under 11 points in the second half, good for 19th in the league); keep Herbert healthy; win turnover battles; undo opponents’ mental composure with a devastating front-seven.
Betting market to watch: Joshua Palmer’s prop market
Palmer doesn’t get enough credit for his safety-valve role in this Chargers offense. Perhaps it’s because Herbert didn’t need him as much during the regular season, as he was gaining momentum with, mainly, Ladd McConkey and Will Dissly. There would’ve been a time when I said Derius Davis or Kimani Vidal might be the X-factors for this team, but barring any trick play in the deep recesses of Harbaugh’s bag, I think it’s Palmer who might rise from the ashes during the playoffs.
He’s out for this Saturday, but keep an eye on his availability going forward. His Anytime TD markets will be interesting, especially with DraftKings Sportsbook‘s King of the End Zone promotion (if you bet on the player who gets the longest TD of the day, you get a share of $2 million), which I wrote about here.
Are the Chargers a good bet to win the Super Bowl?
Among the many Chargers best bets out there for the playoffs, we’re left wondering: are they a good bet to win the title at those +3000 odds? According to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), the Chargers have just under a 9.0% chance to take a plane to New Orleans for media week in February (8.8%).
This ascending Chargers team feels like one whose most significant accolades are a year or two in the future, but +3000 on a sprinkle, if you find this team fun, is something I’ll likely talk myself into wagering.
If you want to ride the lightning with me and back the Chargers to win it all in Caesar’s Superdome come February, let’s roll.
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