I don’t want to sound too overexcited as an NFL fan, but it’s entirely possible our ship hath come in. There we were in October, firmly in the fantasy football trenches of Weeks 7-12, while the new NBA season kicked off and DraftKings Sportsbook rolled out the most cherry red carpet for the beginning of its season: King of the Court. Here we were with our TD promos and our SGP boosts. But where was anything regal—dare I say royal— for the NFL?, some wondered. Turns out, it was in the kitchen all along, and the good folks over at DKSB were just waiting for the playoffs to juice us all up. Welcome to King of the End Zone—or, as its otherwise been billed for Wild Card Saturday: Derrick Henry’s lair.
My venerable colleague Jeff Pratt, who was DKN‘s premier trumpeter re. King of the Court, offers a breakdown of the King of the End Zone promo in his column here, where he also chooses a few longer-odds picks to be crowned on Saturday.
I’ll offer the same breakdown of the promo here, but with different analysis. I’m most curious to see if the advanced analytics align for the short-odds favorite, Derrick Henry (-190), is a tall glass of juice worth that almost -200 squeeze. It was often the case that the odds-favorite ended up being crowned King of the Court during the NBA’s first week (see: Giannis Antetokounmpo), so it’s not out of the question that the market has itself protected and prepared for a Derrick Henry longest touchdown.
First, some rundown of the promo. Then onto Henry.
King of the End Zone — What You Need to Know
King of the End Zone Preview & Picks | Saturday, January 11
Players with shortest odds to score a TD:
- Derrick Henry (-190)
- Joe Mixon (-130)
- J.K. Dobbins (+100)
- Rashod Bateman (+140)
- Nico Collins (+140)
- Mark Andrews (+145)
Analysis: Can Derrick Henry be King of the End Zone?
Right. So we’ve all familiarized ourselves with the promo now that we understand that we are evaluating our next succession plan for the NFL throne—indeed, searching for a crownless again to make king—only if this candidate scores the longest touchdown of the day. So our evaluation of Henry will be matchup-specific, and we’ll focus mostly on Baltimore’s ability to create explosive plays on the field with Henry, as well as Pittsburgh’s ability to stop it.
Let’s start with Pittsburgh defensively.
How Pittsburgh’s defense protects against explosive run plays
Let’s start by taking a look at Pittsburgh’s defensive efficiency across the last seven games, during which the team has gone 2-5. Note how the Steelers rank below-league-average during that time in total EPA/play allowed. They’re clustered right with the Lions, Saints, Cardinals, and Rams; two playoff-quality defensive units, two non-.
During that same timespan, however, the Steelers still have limited opposing rushing offenses to only 17 plays of 10+ rushing yards, good for 11th-best in the NFL. That’s good for a ninth-best-in-the-NFL 9.0% explosive play rate.
That’d mean ripping off a quintessential Henry run against, on average, a defense that was still turning in top-ten caliber performances against explosive plays—when it was over-worked by a disappointing offense, banged up with various week-to-week injuries, and simply trying to limp into the playoffs. When it was consistently losing games.
Now they’re coming off a game in which they held the Cincinnati Bengals’ hellcat offense to fewer than 21 points, albeit in a loss.
Also, just in terms of analyzing the back-end of the Steelers’ defense, seeing as they’d be the last line of defense between Derrick Henry and the end zone:
- FS Minkah Fitzpatrick, whose max speed for the season was 20.90 mph, but only needed to top out at 17.94 mph when the Steelers last played the Ravens
- A healthy SS DeShon Elliott, whose max speed for the season was 19.90 mph—just under Fitzpatrick—and missed the Ravens game with an injury.
Last time Henry played the Steelers in Week 16, he topped out at 21.44 mph. Speed advantage remains with Henry, but only on straight-vector pursuit angles, I’d say.
Derrick Henry’s explosive play against the Steelers in Week 16
Let’s specifically use NFL Next Gen Stats to take a look at the 44-yard run on which Henry hit that 21.44mph speed against the Steelers. It was an outside zone-blocking play, and here’s how the dots line up 3.0 seconds after the ball is snapped, when Henry is going to break free.
Minkah Fitzpatrick is in the backfield on a safety blitz (39), who just missed grabbing Henry after the handoff. Note where James Pierre (42) is lined up at safety, as he’ll eventually be the one to tackle Henry.
Perhaps what’s most important to note about this play is just how thoroughly blocked it is by the Ravens. Other than 95 to Henry’s kitty-corner, everyone’s been chipped or is currently entrenched in a block.
Here’s the view at the point of the tackle:
Important to note how Pittsburgh was able to get its backup SS James Pierre (who started off 54.18 yards from the snap) to rally to the ball at a top speed of 20.48 mph to eventually pinch Henry into a sideline-adjacent tackle.
Pittsburgh rallied to the ball here before Henry could even rip off a 50-yard rushing touchdown. This is at the beginning of a fourth quarter in a grind-it-out divisional game. A tired, beleaguered defense still kept Henry out of the end zone on his longest run.
I’m not sure it matters much to me that Henry is second in the NFL with 46 explosive runs. Other than his 87-yard touchdown against the Bills, he hasn’t crossed the fifty-yard-touchdown mark all season long. And it has, far and away, been Derrick Henry’s most efficient and productive season as a rusher.
Is Pittsburgh going to allow Henry to score for over 50+ yards? Or are some deep-threat pass-catchers better shots at being longer-odds Kings of the End Zone?
Verdict
Derrick Henry to be King of the End Zone on Wild Card Saturday? – No.
Simply too much defensive power stacked against him. I would, however, include him in a parlay in which you choose someone more likely to get a 50+ yard touchdown on Saturday. In the following order, I’d prefer:
- Joshua Palmer, WR, Los Angeles Chargers (+380)
- George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (+210)
- Rashod Bateman, WR, Baltimore Ravens (+140)
- Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens (+145)
- Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans (+140)
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is thegreatdansby9) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and cannot access any non-public information.
