The PGA TOUR makes its second straight start in Hawaii this week with the Sony Open on tap. The field moves to 144 players but we have less top-end talent at the top. The course also changes dramatically this week as we have a narrow par 70 in play at Waialae Country Club. The older course has just two par 5s and features plenty of long, winding par 4s, with small greens and very narrow fairways.
Here is some of what I wrote about Waialae in the PGA DFS Cheat Sheet that was released on DK Network earlier in the week.
“Accuracy off the tee is important, but traditionally, this is a course that favors players with great approach games who can get into a rhythm on these slower Bermuda greens. The 2018 winner, Patton Kizzire, ranked 67th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee for the week but third in SG: Approach. Justin Thomas also didn’t rank in the top half of the field in accuracy off the tee the year he won — and he still won by seven strokes.
In 2019, Matt Kuchar gained +5.5 strokes on approaches and also gained over +7 strokes on the greens. In 2022, Hideki Matsuyama was solid in his ball striking but struck gold with his putter, gaining a career-best 7.3 strokes putting for the week. In 2023, Si Woo Kim put on a ball-striking clinic gaining 8.2 strokes on approach (first in the field) but was barely positive putting (+0.9 strokes). When it comes down to it, recent form in the major ball-striking categories is certainly a great start for success on Waialae, but the need to sink as many 5-15 footers as possible and be smooth around the greens is just as vital.“
With winds for the first day expected to reach gusts of 20 MPH in spots, we can also expect dry greens and tougher conditions for the pros in Round 1. I still expect the course to play under par but I would be careful being too bullish with More Than’s on birdie or stroke props. This venue can frustrate players even in calm conditions if their approaches or short games aren’t clicking and I imagine that will only be magnified with the wind up on Thursday.
We’ll try to sort through all that chaos and find the best edges this week below.
Russell Henley More Than 11.5 Pars
Henley loves this track. He’s finished T-11 or better at Waialae in three of the past four seasons and has shot 5-under par or better at this venue in five of his last 12 competitive rounds. I’m not necessarily needing him to go super low in the wind on Thursday, however, as I like playing him to land us 12+ pars in this spot.
The American is a great scrambler (13th in SG: ATG last 24 rounds), which should help him avoid bogeys in these windy conditions, and is sixth in bogey avoidance in this field over short-term form. He finished just T-30 last week but did play well around the greens and knows this week’s track much better than the Plantation Course.
Maverick McNealy Less Than 67.5 Strokes
I’m going to throw caution out the window a little and say it’s OK to back Maverick McNealy for a solid opening round. The American has played extremely solid golf over the last few months and is a name that could outperform this week again. He grabbed his first win at the RSM Classic to end 2024 and finished T-8 at the Plantation Course last week, gaining 2.5 strokes on approach and over 3.5 strokes around the green.
McNealy has also done well on these more classic tracks throughout his career. He’s got multiple top-five finishes at Pebble Beach (a very comparable seaside venue) and also finished T-7 at Waialae back in 2023. The experience is nice, but this is really a recent form play. McNealy has shot four under or better in eight of his last 12 PGA rounds and is capable of catching fire with his putter at any time. He’s not a player I would want to be fading at the moment and with his total still at reasonable levels, I’m happy to play him lower than in this spot.
Robert MacIntyre More Than 11.5 Pars
MacIntyre is a veteran of links golf and has had plenty of success over the past year or so on the PGA TOUR. While he’s known for his creative swing, he’s also become a very solid scrambler/putter and managed to gain an insane 9.6 strokes around the greens last week. Maybe that number regresses a lot at Waialae, but he’s still a player I would pick to have some success in these windy conditions and he did finish last week with just five bogeys, including a bogey-free seven-under-par round on Sunday.
The Scotsman also ranks 14th in bogey avoidance over the last 24 rounds and will be playing Waialae for the second straight season, which should provide him with a nice experience bump. Just like Henley, I see him posting a lot of pars in Round 1 with his short game able to save him on any missed greens and the wind stopping him from accumulating too many birdies or better.
Brian Harman More than 67.5 strokes
I mentioned in the intro that this may be a good spot to fade some of the players in poor form in the total strokes category. Brian Harman may be well-suited for this sort of venue but he’s not been in good form for quite some time now. The American’s last top 10 on the PGA TOUR came in June of 2024 at the Travelers (T-9) and he lost strokes across the board last week in Maui, where he finished T-58.
I could see Harman bouncing back this week but shooting three under par or better in windy conditions on a tight little course like Waialae isn’t something I’d want to trust to a player not clicking in most areas of his game right now. Harman’s a player I would be OK taking the More Than on in this market for Round 1, and potentially beyond.
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