While the world tunes in to the earliest debate between US Presidential candidates in history Thursday night, the oddsmakers have already set a price on who will be sleeping in the White House on January 20, 2025.
Former President Donald Trump enters a favorite over the field at DraftKings Sportsbook, with a significant lead over President Joe Biden, according to the market.
While betting markets aren’t the perfect place to accurately assess election odds for many reasons, they can give an insight into momentum. But as far as imperfections, see: having Michelle Obama, who has repeatedly said she never intends to run for the office, priced as becoming the 47th President of the United States one out of 17 times minus the vigorish.
But they are interesting nonetheless and might give a real-time window as to how people feel each of the candidates performed by their movement during and after tonight’s debate. While accurate polling beyond focus groups might take days, betting markets react in real-time. A strong performance by either Biden or Trump, with more upside generally seen for Biden thanks to rumors about his mental acuity at 82, could see prices move significantly.
The President beat back many of those questions during his State of The Union in March, which saw his popularity slightly increase following the oft-fiery speech. But will another strong (or weak) performance by either candidate affect the betting markets? We’ll check back later this evening to find out.
Here are the latest odds to win the 2024 Presidential Election from DraftKings Sportsbook (only offered in Ontario, Canada):
Person to win 2024 Presidential Election
Donald Trump −155
Joe Biden +160
Michelle Obama +1600
Gavin Newsom +2000
Robert Kennedy Jr +3500
Hillary Clinton +4000
Kamala Harris +4000
Nikki Haley +6500
Gretchen Whitmer +10000
Elizabeth Warren +20000
Party to win 2024 Presidential Election
Republicans −155
Democrats +120
Independent +3500
