Update: Kuminga has been ruled out, although he is expected to play Thursday for Golden State. Lively is out for the Mavericks. Bettors have pushed this line in favor of Dallas now, with the Mavericks as 1-point favorites. I’ll still back Dallas as the ATS pick tonight. The total hasn’t changed and I’ll still take the over.
Two of the hottest teams in the NBA meet Tuesday evening in a critical Western Conference showdown when the Dallas Mavericks (45-29) face the Golden State Warriors (40-34). The Mavericks have won seven in a row and are currently a half-game up on the No. 6 seed, while the Warriors are two games up on the red-hot Rockets for the final play-in spot. Golden State has won four in a row. These teams have met twice already this season, with Dallas winning both meetings.
Dereck Lively is listed as questionable for the Mavericks. The Warriors have ruled out Dario Saric, while Jonathan Kuminga is considered questionable. Klay Thompson is listed as probable.
The Warriors are 1-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook and the total comes in at 232. Golden State is -118 on the moneyline while Dallas is -102.
Mavericks vs. Warriors, 10 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Mavericks +1
Dallas is 25-12 ATS as the road team, going 8-8 ATS as a road underdog this season. Golden State has been surprisingly bad at home with a 18-19 overall record and a 15-21-1 ATS mark. The Warriors are 11-19 ATS as a home favorite. This level of futility in the Bay Area is something Golden State hasn’t experienced in several years when it was considered a contending team.
The Mavericks have won both head-to-head meetings so far and have won seven in a row. The Warriors are playing better but simply cannot be trusted at Chase Center this season. Give me Dallas to cover as the underdog.
Over/Under: Over 232
The Mavericks trend to the under on the season. They are 34-39-1 on overs. On the flip side, Golden State is 37-37 to the over. However, the Mavericks are 19-17-1 to the over as the road team and the Warriors are 22-15 to the over at home. The last meeting between these teams in San Francisco went well over this mark, so I’ll back the over to hit once again in Tuesday’s contest.
