I’m all over second-year Ramily member Davante Adams to score against the Niners tonight, with his anytime touchdown price around +105. I much prefer that to his overs of 51.5 receiving yards or 4.5 catches. Puka Nacua can and will (most likely) dominate the counting stats, and we’ll just wait for Adams to do his thing during the money downs.
Below, I’ll break down Adams” touchdown-scoring prop for tonight’s much-anticipated matchup—the first-ever NFL game in Australia.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Davante Adams touchdown scorer prop bet vs. 49ers
Davante Adams to score a touchdown (+105)
Last season, Adams led all NFL pass-catchers with 23 targets inside the 10-yard line. He converted those opportunities into 11 touchdowns. He scored in nine of 14 total appearances in his debut LA season, but his specialty is scoring. And, at +120, the break-even probability is 45.5%. His established role near the goal line gives me reason to take that price.
Before his hamstring injury more or less detonated his season, Adams commanded a 23.8% target share, 27% of which came on first reads. Stafford knew even then to look for him. That distinction became its most lethal near the end zone, where Adams has made a career of winning immediately at his release point. A defender simply leaning the wrong way gives Stafford enough room to finish the play. Split second, no-look. Paydirt.
Their connection improved considerably over the course of last season, despite the injury. Adams caught 47.3% of his targets through six games, then 57.6% afterward; his 11 touchdowns came during that latter stretch. People might forget that Stafford missed much of their first training camp together with his mysterious back injury. Imagine their timing now after a healthy summer of OTAs, preseason, training camp, etc. Scary.
San Francisco’s defense allowed 29 passing touchdowns last season, and Adams scored one of them when the two teams met in November. Raheem Morris is the new defensive coordinator, so I could see the secondary having improved a bit over the offseason Still, McVay can use tight ends to threaten the run while isolating Adams outside. No one uses heavy personnel like the Rams; no one’s got fleeter feet than ‘Te. His footwork makes every single rep against him nightmarish.
Kyren Williams and the tight ends will get their scoring chances, too. I’m backing the future Hall-of-Famer Stafford targeted most often inside the 10, at a price that pays just a tipple more than even money.
