The 2024 NFL Draft less than a month away, so it’s time to start thinking about who your team might pick and where top players might go and the fantasy football implications of those picks. For this short mock draft we’re going to look at the odds over at DraftKings Sportsbook. The odds don’t exactly present themselves so we can easily base a 32 pick first round, so we’ll take a look at the Top 10 picks according to the odds.
1. Chicago Bears — QB, Caleb Williams, -10000
The odds are still up, but you’d be making a penny on the dollar at -10000. This pick has been a foregone conclusion since last season even if fans weren’t able to see it. The trade of Justin Fields to the Steelers made it as official as it can be before the pick actually happens. Williams will be the most-touted and highly evaluated quarterback they’ve ever drafted and they’ve had a long, long run. Nothing is a lock, but Bears fans should be excited.
2. Washington Commanders — QB, Jayden Daniels, LSU, -165
Daniels to the Commanders is the rumored pick at the moment, but this remains fluid. Drake Maye remains a candidate for this pick at +145. Both the Commanders and the Patriots are in desperate need for a quarterback, so the odds favor Daniels and Maye to go to these two teams, but the order is far from a lock.
3. New England Patriots — QB, Drake Maye, North Carolina, -135
Maye had been the consensus No. 2 pick coming out of the 2023 season, but Daniels has snuck ahead of him at this point. It’s still close, as Daniels is +155 to go to the Patriots as well. How these two teams truly see these two players is information we may not be privy to until the picks are made.
4. Arizona Cardinals — WR, Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State, -175
Harrison has been mocked to the Cardinals on a consistent basis and there is little doubt they are going to take a wide receiver after letting Marquise Brown and Ronald Moore walk. After Harrison, the next pick odds are J.J. McCarthy +175, Drake Maye +750, Malik Nabers +1200, and Jayden Daniels +1200. The books could see the Cardinals trading back for a team in desperate need of a quarterback, like the Raiders, Vikings, or Giants. If one of the Top 3 QBs were to fall somehow, those teams would be even more desperate to jump to pick 4.
5. Minnesota Vikings (trade with Chargers) — QB, J.J. McCarthy, Michigan, +275
Nabers is the favorite to go with the fifth pick at +225, but the odds show the book isn’t confident about that, especially when you look at Nabers’ odds for the next pick. Harrison is close behind at +275 if the Cardinals were to draft Nabers or trade out for someone wanting a quarterback. McCarthy is tied with Harrison at +275 and a trade up seems like the most likely path if the Top 3 QBs all go with the first three picks.
The Chargers very much need a top wide receiver after letting Keenan Allen and Mike Williams go this offseason, but new head coach Jim Harbaugh appears to be all in on the run game. Tackle Joe Alt comes in at +500 as the fourth most-likely pick, but I believe Harbaugh will look to compile some picks in a trade, as the Chargers do need to fill some holes.
The Vikings are still in a good window with their offense, so making a move on McCarthy makes sense here. There are varying evaluations on the Michigan QB, but it seems more and more likely teams are willing to go after him early in the draft.
6. New York Giants — Malik Nabers, WR, LSU, +140
This pick is tough. The Giants need to upgrade on Daniel Jones, so they could go quarterback. But if there isn’t a QB here they really like, they could go wide receiver, which is another huge need. The odds have Nabers as the favorite at +140, which technically makes him more likely to go to the Giants than Chargers. If they happen to be all in on McCarthy, they could trade up here, but they could also trade up later for someone like Bo Nix or Michael Penix. Nabers will be tough to pass on.
7. Tennessee Titans — Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame, -150
The Titans appear to be all in on a rebuild around Will Levis and they need to keep him safe. Alt feels like a strong possibility here, especially if the Chargers trade out of their pick. If they love Rome Odunze (+700), I could see them grabbing him here, but with the Calvin Ridley trade, they probably will look to strengthen a weak line.
8. Atlanta Falcons — Dallas Turner, OLB, Alabama, +150
The Falcons got their quarterback by signing Kirk Cousins and will likely look to the defense with this pick. They remained abysmal at getting to the QB last year and Turner is regarded by many as the top player to turn that around in 2024.
9. Chicago Bears — Rome Odunze, WR, Washington, +200
This would be the dream scenario for the Bears, which is good, because it is also the odds on favorite scenario. Odunze could tempt the Titans and if the Chargers hold and go wide receiver with their pick, Odunze could be gone by the time the Bears draft again. But as things are, this does appear to be a plausible pick. Teaming Caleb Williams, D.J. Moore and Odunze would be a nice way for the Bears to start 2024.
10. New York Jets — Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia, +150
Bowers is the favorite to go to the Jets and that makes sense as the team is very much in win-now mode with Aaron Rodgers getting long in the tooth. Bowers is easily the best tight end in the draft and has special abilities after the catch. He should be a capable starter in year one and only get better.