Update: The Heat have ruled out Jimmy Butler with an illness, which has changed the complexion of this game a bit. The Warriors are now 5-point favorites and the total comes in at 216.5. I’ll still take Golden State as the ATS pick and the under on the total.
Two teams who believe they are title contenders but currently sit in the play-in zone will face off Tuesday when the Golden State Warriors (36-34) complete their season series against the Miami Heat (39-32). The Warriors are 10th in the West and are likely to be in the play-in, while the Heat are the No. 7 seed in the East as of Tuesday and could climb up. The Heat won the first meeting between these teams 114-102 despite Jimmy Butler sitting that contest.
Golden State rookie Trayce Jackson-Davis is listed as questionable. The Heat remain without Tyler Herro, while Jaime Jaquez Jr., Caleb Martin and Kevin Love are all listed as questionable.
The Warriors are 2-point favorites according to DraftKings Sportsbook with the total set at 217.5. Golden State is -130 on the moneyline while Miami is +105.
Warriors vs. Heat, 7:30 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Warriors -2
The Warriors have generally been better on the road this season. They are 22-11 ATS away from the Bay Area, which is one of the best marks in the league. The Heat are not a strong home team, going 13-21 ATS in South Beach. Both teams have covered the spread just twice in the last five games.
Even though the stakes are somewhat higher for Miami since the Heat can actually get an automatic playoff spot, I think the Warriors get the job done on the road as they have done many times this season. Give me Golden State to win and cover.
Over/Under: Under 217.5
Golden State trends towards the over, going 36-34 to the over. Miami is the most under-friendly team in the league with a 26-45 mark to the over. The Warriors are 14-19 on overs as the road team, but have gone over their totals in four of the last five games. The Heat are 16-18 to the over as the home team, and have gone over their totals in two of the last five games. I like the under to hit in this game.
