Update: Both Lillard and Lopez have been ruled out, while Antetokounmpo is in. The line is going to swing more in Phoenix’s favor, and I’m going to change my ATS pick to the Suns because of the absences for Milwaukee. My ATS pick is now Suns -5. The total comes in at 242 and I still like the under, especially with Lillard sitting out.
We get a rematch of the 2021 NBA Finals Tuesday night when the Milwaukee Bucks (33-17) visit the Phoenix Suns (29-21), although both teams have changed substantially since that series. The Bucks are coming off a tough loss to the Jazz while the Suns got a nice win over the Wizards. This is the first meeting between these teams this season.
Damian Lillard and Brook Lopez are listed as questionable for the Bucks, while Giannis Antetokounmpo is listed as probable. Lillard played in the last game but Lopez did not. The Suns are clean on the day-to-day injury front.
The Suns are 3.5-point favorites according to DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total coming in at 243.5. Phoenix is -162 on the moneyline while Milwaukee is +136.
Bucks vs. Suns, 10 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Bucks +3.5
Milwaukee is just 1-3 as an underdog this season, but the Suns are 13-22-2 ATS as a favorite. The Bucks are coming off a brutal showing in the fourth quarter in particular, and that’s something they’ll want to bounce back from. Even though Milwaukee’s defense has been bad, the Bucks tend to show up when there’s a big-time opponent on the other side. The Suns qualify as that type of opponent.
Phoenix has been on fire after some early jitters, winning three of their last four and covering the spread in all three. However, they only covered the spread three times during their seven-game winning streak. I like Milwaukee to bounce back Tuesday night.
Over/Under: Under 243.5
The Bucks, despite having one of the best scoring offenses in the league, have gone under their totals in the last four games and five of the last six. The Suns have gone 3-3 to the over in their last six, but had four unders and a push prior to that. Even with two high-powered offenses with plenty of star talent, I like this total to go under.