The most underrated never named Mr. December out there, in my opinion, is Matthew Stafford. Not only has he done nothing but win this calendar month (the Rams are 4-0), but he’s also failed to eclipse his passing yardage total the past two weeks. Good quarterbacks win; great quarterbacks cover (which Stafford has also done for the Rams in both Weeks 16 and 17). Tonight, he gets Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals at home with, for the second week, his full bevy of offensive weapons: Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, Tyler Higbee et al. will look to hang a number on the reeling redbirds. And there’s a best Matthew Stafford bet out there, as sure as there’s gold in them there hills.
I’ve already written up my favorite props for both Puka Nacua here and Cooper Kupp here. Below, I’ve broken down my favorite Matthew Stafford prop for this game. Saturday Night Lights—let’s roll.
Matthew Stafford best prop bet for Rams vs. Cardinals on NFL Week 17
Matthew Stafford o30.5 passing attempts
Everyone’s going to point to the 44-42 scorefest at SoFi against the Buffalo Bills to caution me against this over. Stafford only threw the ball 30 times then. But every Bills fan would tell you that the reliance on Kyren Williams’s inefficient-yet-dominant performance in that game (29 carries for 87 yards and tw touchdowns) was fated.
And thus, it might just not have been Stafford’s game with regards to the week of preparation. Though it sure did turn into a game that he needed to win.
I don’t think this game is going to be as run-heavy as the Week 16 contest against the San Francisco 49ers, nor the Week 17 game against the New York Jets. Even still, Stafford threw 27 times against the Niners in that divisional battle. That’s just barely below this threshold.
Not to mention, with a gelled offensive line and his full buffet of pass-catchers, McVay has been scheming Stafford into his bag, as evidenced by this stat re. Stafford’s play action percentage in this 2024 Rams offense (courtesy of NFL Next Gen Stats).
The Cardinals allow the eighth-highest EPA/dropback (0.06) and allow an average of 29 passing attempts per game. Stafford threw for 27 against them in a bitter Week 2 loss that catapulted Arizona into being early-season NFC West favorites.
This game is going to have more scoring than people think; I think Murray forces Stafford to keep up at home.
Best bet: Matthew Stafford o30.5 passing attempts
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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