After winning Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2023, Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud has been in a little bit of a sophomore slump. Last season’s second overall pick has completed 63.2% of his passes — a similar percentage to his rookie year — but has been less efficient, throwing for only 3,492 yards and 19 touchdowns to go along with 11 interceptions. Still, the Texans have won 9 of their 15 games and are guaranteed at least the fourth seed in the AFC.
Houston’s Christmas Day game against the Baltimore Ravens will go a long way towards determining both teams’ eventual playoff fates. Baltimore is behind the Pittsburgh Steelers for the AFC North lead on the virtue of Pittsburgh’s better record against conference opponents, so if all the standings hold, we will see this matchup again in two and a half weeks. If the Texans beat the Ravens and the Steelers lose to the Kansas City Chiefs, Houston will have the inside track to the third seed in the conference.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Houston is a 5.5-point underdog, and the point total is set at 46.5. Below, I’ve identified my favorite prop bets centered around Stroud.
Best C.J. Stroud Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
C.J. Stroud 250+ Passing Yards (-105)
Stroud has been a pretty low-volume passer in recent weeks, especially after losing Stefon Diggs to a torn ACL in Week 8. Things took a turn for the worse last week when Stroud’s best friend, wide receiver Tank Dell, suffered a gruesome dislocated patella and torn ACL in Saturday’s loss to the Chiefs. To replace Dell, the Texans signed former Baltimore wideout Diontae Johnson, who will make his Houston debut against his former team.
I like Stroud to put up 250 yards — a mark that he’s hit only once in his last seven games — because of the opponent he is facing. Baltimore has arguably the best run defense in the league, which should incentivize Stroud to pass. The Ravens’ secondary has combined high volume with mediocre efficiency, and opposing passers have put up 4,095 yards against them, more than anybody except the woeful Jacksonville Jaguars. Stroud is an above-average quarterback — per Pro Football Focus, the league’s 11th-best — and should have no trouble stacking up yards against Baltimore.
C.J. Stroud O1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+130)
Even with his top two red zone threats lost for the season, Stroud is still a good bet to throw at least two touchdown passes in what should be a relatively high-scoring affair, given Lamar Jackson’s brilliance and the Texans’ own struggles at keeping receivers out of the end zone.
Because of their focus on ground defense, the Ravens have given up lots of touchdowns to opposing wide receivers. In fact, their 26 passing touchdowns allowed ties for fifth-worst in the NFL. Plus, for all of his struggles, Stroud has started to find his groove in recent weeks. He has thrown two touchdown passes in three of his past four games, including a Week 15 win against the Miami Dolphins, a team that has allowed fewer touchdown passes than all but four teams.
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