Given that the College Football Playoff has been four teams in years past, we’re used to tight point spreads in the majority of these games. There have obviously been exceptions, but generally we’re getting the elite of the elite. With the larger field, and the first-round being played with home field, we have a bunch of larger favorites in the opening games. I wrote up how I’m handling the other three games for DK Network here, but with Texas the largest of the opening round favorites, I’m going to the total in this game.
Clemson/Texas UNDER 51.5 (-110) 1.5-units
I put this play out earlier, and you can now find yourself a juiced 52 at DraftKings Sportsbook. I’d fire on this one earlier rather than later, as I do expect this to be bet down as we approach Saturday afternoon. As of Tuesday afternoon, the DK Network betting splits page shows sharper play to the under, with just 46% of the bets, but for 70% of the money.
The best unit on the field in this game is going to be the Longhorns’ defense, and I expect them to set the tone. Texas is off holding Georgia to 16 points in regulation in the SEC Championship game, and has been lights out recently. The week prior, the Horns essentially shutout Texas A&M in a game with playoff implications on the road, as the Aggies only seven points came on a defensive touchdown. Prior to that, Texas limited Kentucky to 14 and Arkansas to 10 in SEC play.
On the whole, Texas held opponents to 12.5 points per game this season. The most any team scored coming into Austin was 17 points by Florida, and that included a garbage time touchdown by the Gators, with the outcome long decided. While Clemson’s offense was humming in the early parts of ACC play, it tailed off as the season went on. If you remove a meaningless 51 points against The Citadel, the Tigers were held to 24 points or less in their final four regular season games. Clemson did score 31 in the SEC Title Game against SMU, but got off to a hot start that I don’t anticipate repeating itself here in Austin.
Clemson squared off with a pair of SEC opponents in the regular season, and combined for 17 points in those games (three in the opener vs. Georgia, and then 14 in the season finale vs. South Carolina). I just don’t see where the Tigers find their offense in this game, going up against a defense that’s been playing very well.
Unlike the regular season, there’s no need for style points here from Texas. It’s survive and advance, and the Longhorns will have to turnaround and play a well rested Arizona State team on New Year’s Day (assuming they can win). With a defense like Texas, Clemson likely tries to muck this game up, so I’m expecting the game script to play in favor of the under out of the gates.
I could see this total closing in the high 40’s come Saturday, and think we wind up seeing something along the lines of a 27-13 victory for the Longhorns.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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