The inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff is here. And while we’re used to mostly tight point spreads in the CFP, the new larger field, plus home field advantage in the first-round, gives us some larger spreads in the opening slate of games. I’m doing things a bit different with a few of these favorites, tying them together on a couple of moneyline parlays.
Notre Dame/Penn State MLP (-120) 2-units
Notre Dame/Ohio State MLP (-115) 1-unit
We’ll kick these parlays off with everything linked to the Irish on Friday night. Outside of Notre Dame’s stunning loss to Northern Illinois, Marcus Freeman has his team rolling this season. Now, while I’m not at all convinced the Irish in the same class as the likes or Oregon, Ohio State, Texas or Georgia, they’re not far behind.
While you can point out that the schedule for Notre Dame has been a cakewalk, you can say the same about Indiana. This is going to be a step up in class for the Hoosiers, and they only really tested themselves in a spot like this once this season — a 38-15 road loss at Ohio State. This is an elite Irish defense, and I expect them to limit Indiana’s high flying offense the way that the Buckeyes did. On the flip side, expect Notre Dame to still find ways to run the rock on Indiana, particularly in what should be a freezing night in South Bend with the potential for snow (not to mention a rowdy Friday night crowd).
It’s been a tremendous season for Indiana, but I think the Hoosiers are stepping into another weight class on Friday night.
As for Penn State, yes, we’re going to back James Franklin here in a big game. While PSU has had it’s struggles, it really comes against the elite of the elite. While you have a team like Tennesse that lands a path of going through Ohio State and Oregon if it wants to make it to the Final Four, Penn State landed on the complete opposite end of the spectrum.
The Nittany Lions land a home game against SMU here, and then would be a double-digit favorite over Boise State on New Year’s Eve if they can advance. That’s an encouraging path, and while these are “big” games, SMU is the type of competition that James Franklin should be able to handle.
The Mustangs had a great season in the ACC, but the schedule was extremely soft. If they’d showed up early in the ACC Championship game, they likely would’ve won the game. But the lights shined a little too bright for SMU, and they came out not looking sharp. That doesn’t bode well for a road trip to a whiteout at Beaver Stadium. This is going to be the best defense SMU has faced all season, and they’re going to have to figure it out in a hostile road environment. I like PSU to win in the trenches, and ultimately win the game.
The Buckeyes are coming off one of the most embarrassing losses I can recall in college football. The loss has bettors questioning their ability to advance in the CFP, as money has piled in on the Vols ATS and ML on DraftKings Sportsbook. It was a terrible loss in a rivalry game, and cost Ohio State a shot at a conference championship and a bye. As bad as it was, the Buckeyes still may be the highest power rated team in the country, or at least close.
It’s going to be really important for Ryan Day to get his team off to a good start here. The home crowd will be brutal if the Buckeyes have to play from behind. I think they do so, and I’ll go against what’s shaping up as a very public dog here. Give me Ohio State to advance, and finally get their rematch with the Ducks on a neutral on New Year’s Day.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
