We’ve reached the point in the NFL season where there are no more bye weeks and teams are starting to set their sights on the postseason … or the NFL Draft. Peter Keating of The Underdogs podcast joined Friday’s edition of GoJo and Golic to discuss underdogs in Week 15 and all things NFL.
To better understand why some NFL teams are struggling, Mike Golic Jr. asked Keating to identify the common factors contributing to their challenges this season. He shared that underdogs were THRIVING early in the season, pulling off surprising wins and performing well against the spread. But as the year has progressed, teams with poor records have proven to be genuinely BAD, offering few options for value plays or underdogs. Keating explained it is tough to identify underdogs to bet on because the league has become both top-heavy and bottom-heavy simultaneously. He noted that while some of this disparity can be attributed to luck — the Kansas City Chiefs as an example and said they can’t keep winning games by 2 points forever — other factors, like injuries, tanking or simply how the season has played out have left many teams at the bottom in rough shape. He pointed to the Giants as a striking example, highlighting how rare it is to see a home team listed as a 16.5-point underdog, yet still not be a tempting pick against a strong opponent like Baltimore. In the end, Peter admitted that the overall quality of the league’s worst teams makes it tough to find an underdog worth backing with any level of confidence.
What is @PeterKeatingNJ finding about the gap between the top of the NFL & the bottom and how it affects identifying underdogs?
"As we've gone on teams with the bad records in the NFL turn out to be, for the most part, really bad, not value plays or good underdogs…I mean, the… pic.twitter.com/oik69RRIDK
— GoJo and Golic (@GoJoandGolic) December 13, 2024
Speaking of bad teams, as much as people like to blame quarterbacks for their teams’ struggles, Mike Golic Sr. offers a different perspective by asking Keating if some of the challenges come from the difficulty offensive linemen have in transitioning from college to the pros. Keating pointed out that while it’s easy to lay the blame on a QB, the offensive line often emerges as a common denominator for teams at the bottom of the barrel. Teams like the Giants, Jets, and Raiders have faced quarterback play that’s fallen below expectations, but poor offensive line performance is a consistent thread amongst these losing teams. He highlighted that most of these teams are losing battles in the trenches, not only in pass blocking but also run blocking, and it’s rare to find even one elite lineman on a team with a poor record.
Struggling NFL teams have one thing in common: poor play in the trenches. Should rebuilding the O-line take priority over drafting a rookie QB?
“But if you're the Giants drafting 2, do you want a quarterback at that spot, or can you sign somebody and spend a year rebuilding in… pic.twitter.com/FDmBADqOwl
— DraftKings Network (@DKNetwork) December 13, 2024
When talking about teams hurt by bad luck, Peter pointed to the Jets as an example, having lost many one-score games. However, he suggested that the young players who looked promising two years ago might bounce back with better coaching, more competence and a bit of luck. Still, he argued that teams in rebuild mode should prioritize fixing the offensive line rather than just placing a rookie quarterback behind a shaky front. He specifically mentioned the dilemma of dropping a player like Shedeur Sanders into a team with a weak offensive line, questioning whether that’s setting the quarterback up for failure. Keating referenced Jacksonville as a cautionary tale, where they spent heavily on skill players in the offseason but neglected their offensive line, leading to Trevor Lawrence struggling this season. He applied this thinking to the Giants, questioning if they should draft a quarterback at the No. 2 spot or spend a year rebuilding in the trenches to provide a stable foundation for whoever takes over under center as the eventual franchise quarterback.
Shifting gears to the games this week GoJo asked Keating what was his bet of the weekend, Keating shared that he is focusing on the under in the Bengals vs. Titans game. That total sits at 46 and the Bengals are a 5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook. He explained that on his Underdogs podcast, they often highlight an under of the week, and his research has turned him into a bit of an amateur meteorologist. He identified that whether it is in college or the NFL, games are much more likely to hit the under when wind speeds exceed 15 miles per hour. Rain and strong winds are expected this weekend in Nashville, making the under in this game an enticing option. While the Bengals have been scoring heavily, Tennessee’s defense has faced its share of bad luck. And while the Bengals defense has been maligned, they are particularly bad against the pass., which could be impacted by the weather. Cincinnati’s run defense has actually improved significantly since some early-season struggles. The combination of luck, the matchups and the weather leads Keating to really like the under in this matchup.
Watch or listen to the full show below and tune into GoJo and Golic weekday mornings from 8-10 a.m. ET on DraftKings Network! See more about how to watch DraftKings Network here.
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Watch GoJo and Golic every weekday on Samsung TV Plus, Roku, Xumo Play, Google TV and DraftKingsNetwork.com from 8 to 10 a.m. ET. The show is also available via audio on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. You can also follow Mike Golic Sr. on X at @golic and Mike Golic Jr. on X at @mikegolicjr.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information
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