Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and the San Francisco 49ers will face the Buffalo Bills and quarterback Josh Allen, who’s fresh off an engagement to longtime girlfriend Hailee Steinfeld. It’s a desperation spot for the Niners in their ultra-competitive and still-up-for-grabs NFC West. It’s another opportunity for James Cook, Khalil Shakir, Dawson Knox &co. to show us that the Bills can let everyone eat on offense.
And, speaking of eating, we’ve all been waiting for McCaffrey’s breakout game. It’s been a disappointing three few weeks for McCaffrey backers and Niners fans alike.
However, I like him to have his best game of the season tonight.
Best Christian McCaffrey prop bet for 49ers vs. Bills on Sunday Night Football
Christian McCaffrey 125+ rushing + receiving yards (+200)
I liked upscaling an alt for Josh Allen’s rushing yards this week, too, and like doing the same here for CMC’s rushing + receiving total. This game has all the makings of an inter-conference battle that should meet or exceed its expected total, so I believe there’ll be plenty of yards to be had.
And what would the reeling Niners be doing if they went away from McCaffrey in primetime? The market is clearly a bit uncertain about McCaffrey’s usage in this game, as the jump in juice from 100+ r/r yards to 125+ r/r yards is a whopping +115. 25 yards is a breakout run for McCaffrey and the Niners. It’s not that large of a jump.
Listen, I think McCaffrey is good for his 100+ at -115, if you want to be a bit safer. Perhaps it depends on how your fortunes fare on the early/evening windows. But, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, CMC’s been out there for 87.9% of the 49ers offensive snaps since Week 10. But his rush yards over expected (RYOE) is a dismal -33. That’s even worse when you consider McCaffrey led the league in RYOE in 2023 (+349).
More unfortunate stats for the 49ers’ running game from NFL NGS: McCaffrey’s first-contact-behind-line-of-scrimmage rate of 58.1% this season is up 23.2% from his rate in 2023. The 49ers haven’t been protecting him well; or McCaffrey just hasn’t been seeing the holes.
This is just simply a positive regression bet. McCaffrey needs a get-right game off this wacky season-long speculation about his Achilles/calf injuries from the offseason. He hasn’t cleared this number once, but did clear 100+ in Week 11.
Bottom Line
I’m betting on talent, here. I’m betting that the primetime 49ers tonight look a lot like the 49ers from 2023, which might be a bit of a pipe dream with their patchwork offensive line. But 125+ scrimmage yards for McCaffrey was once light work.
I’m riding some nostalgia for the two-to-one juice.
Best bet: Christian McCaffrey 125+ rushing + receiving yards (+200)
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