And no, it’s not o0.5 engagement rings given. But he sure would have hit that number, too! Major congrats to Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen, who will head into his Sunday Night Football matchup against Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and the San Francisco 49ers fresh off an engagement to longtime girlfriend Hailee Steinfeld.
A primetime football game for one of the NFL’s most elite dual-threat quarterbacks after a qualifying life event? That’s a big “yes please” from me on his prop market. He’s bound to put on a show in some way, so the trick is finding the best value.
Here’s where I’m eyeing a sprinkle or two.
Best Josh Allen prop bet for 49ers vs. Bills on Sunday Night Football
Josh Allen 40+ rushing yards (+130)
I like upscaling an alt line here for Allen’s rushing yards this week. San Francisco’s secondary is indeed hurt, but they still rank third in defensive passing DVOA. A lot of folks have been all over Allen’s o19.5 longest completion line (-130), and for good reason.
According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Josh Allen throws deep balls (20+ yards) ninth-most in the league among quarterbacks. That’s good for 12.1% of his total throws. Of his 41 deep throws, he’s completed 14 of them. See the below graphic.
Having said that, the 49ers’ defense has allowed the fourth-fewest explosive passing plays (defined as throws of 15+ yards) this year, with 52 across 11 games. I don’t know if Allen’s going to make his money with the deep ball.
This game might be all about scramble rate. The Niners’ unit is also fairly elite at preventing scrambles; they’re seventh in the league with a 10.9% figure, good for 42 total scrambles. Allen averages just north of six carries per game, combining both scrambles and designed runs. The math here would suggest that, on average, the Niners would force Allen (who has 383 total dropbacks) to scramble about four times in the game.
Allen has 20 carries in his last two games. Even though that’s likely unsustainable, and he’s about to be equipped with his healthiest pass-catcher room in a while (sans Dalton Kincaid), I expect him to use his legs quite a bit. Both by design, and by improvisation.
Bottom Line
I think Allen will be good for six-to-eight carries tomorrow night, and all we’ll need with that number is Allen to rip off a single ten-plus-yard run on one of his carries, which is well within reach. Nothing pumps up the Bills crowd at home than a Josh Allen angry run. Expect him to clear this number easily.
Best bet: Josh Allen 40+ rushing yards (+130)
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