Fridays are for Five Lists of Five here at DKNetwork, and for Week 12, we want that partridge in a pear tree kinda win on Sunday, you know? What with the twelve days of Christmas just around the corner. The duration of which will be decidedly different for Daniel Jones, freshly released from the New York Giants per his own request. And that’s not even the most breaking fantasy news of the weekend. We’re waiting to hear statuses on CeeDee Lamb, Ladd McConkey, Malik Nabers and more.
Kicking it off this week with my top five fantasy football players most likely to score a touchdown in Week 12. I explain the metric and the methodology below, but these are all players I believe are must-starts in season-long fantasy, represent proportionate or good value in DFS, and worth decent looks for Anytime TD bets on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Also available from this week’s Fantasy Fridays Five Lists of Five:
- Top five fantasy football must starts and smash spots
- Top five wide receivers due for fantasy football breakout games in NFL Week 12
- Top five fantasy football stash players for NFL Week 12
- Top five fantasy football streamers for NFL Week 12
Pay ‘Em Dirt
A repeat of last week’s scientific abstract, here: We’re going to be referencing a metric in this piece called Goal Line Grade (GLG), developed by Kyle Senra, an analyst at FantasySixPack. It’s a way to evaluate potential goal-line efficiency at a team-and-matchup level by following these steps:
Quantify Offensive Goal-Line Performance:
- Measure each offense’s touchdown efficiency on plays run within the opponent’s five-yard line.
- Bucket the data into rushing and passing plays.
Analyze Opposing Defensive Goal-Line Metrics:
- Assess the total touchdowns and percentage allowed by each opposing defense near their goal line.
- Correlate these metrics with the respective offense’s performance.
Integrate Projected Scoring Market Data:
- Incorporate DraftKings Sportsbooks‘ implied/projected totals for each team.
Compute Goal Line Play Type Disparity:
- Determine the variance between each offense’s rushing and passing grades.
- Identify the dominant area (rushing or passing) for each team based on the calculated difference.
In doing so, we’re left with both a firm reading on an offense’s effectiveness and effective tendencies within the five-yard line. As such, we’ll be able to best determine which teams, in their Week 11 matchups, are the most efficient in goal-to-go situations.
Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Washington Commanders (vs. Dallas Cowboys)
According to the GLG model, the Commanders and Brian Robinson Jr. have the highest Goal Line Grade of the week. In fact, they reached an almost unheard of triple-digit rushing GLG score of 112.
Now, the one problem with calling Robinson is that, of course, dynamic quarterback Jayden Daniels is in the mix for extending the ball over the goal line on designed quarterback runs or quarterback sneaks. Still, Robinson Jr. is tied for fourth in the league with touchdowns inside the opponents’ 12-yard line (seven total).
Robinson’s 19 total carries within the 12-yard line isn’t that much more encouraging than Daniels’s 15 carries. Nor Austin Ekeler’s 14. But I think that has much more to do with Robinson having missed games with injury than anything else—at least for Ekeler. Not to mention, Washington would do well to be a bit careful with its rookie quarterback who keeps missing practice. Daniels has looked human the past few weeks.
I don’t think this play is going to come down to one or two goal-line carries. I expect Washington to get close to double-digit snaps, if not more, around Dallas’ goal line. Robinson will convert one.
De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins (vs. New England Patriots)
Miami’s GLG is second this week behind Washington and sits at a figure of 93.75. Their passing goal line grade for this week is 67.5. That means They’re about 26% more likely on any given snap to hand the ball off to either De’Von Achane or Jaylen Wright inside the goal line.
Mostert’s status for Sunday’s game is up in the air, which might mean, even if he’s active, McDaniel and co. will be more likely to run Achane at the goal line. Achane has 15 carries inside opponents’ 12-yard lines, and has so far converted three of those for touchdowns.
New England’s defense gave up double-digit snaps inside that same part of the field to the Los Angeles Rams offense in Week 12. Surely this Dolphins offense can match that. Should they, I like Achane to blow by the pylon cam.
Brock Bowers, TE and/or Jakobi Meyers, WR, Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Denver Broncos)
The Las Vegas Raiders lead the league in pass-to-run goal line grade differential this week, with a +22% score leaning pass, according to Senra’s model, here. The primary beneficiary of that, of course, would be Brock Bowers. He leads the Raiders with nine (a relatively middling figure) targets within opponents’ 20-yard line. He’s caught five of those passes, converted none of them for touchdowns. One of the targets ended in an interception.
What with Ameer Abdullah likely toting the rock for Las Vegas this week, the lean toward pass makes sense. Bowers, for all his remarkable league-leading tight end stats this year, is actually due for some positive regression in the red zone. The Broncos’ defense is stout, with a eighth-ranked passing DVOA and a fifth-ranked DVOA so far this season.
But the lean is still pass, especially given the injuries in the backfield.
I mentioned Meyers in this title because I could see him breaking loose on a zig or a slant, but he’ll be getting the Patrick Surtain II treatment. Be cautious with that.
Theo Johnson, TE, New York Giants (vs.
Matchup-driven pick! The Buccaneers have the 28th-ranked scoring defense against tight ends in PPR fantasy football. And what’s better for a backup-quarterback-thrust-into-starting-role than a binky tight end?
The Giants are right behind the Raiders when it comes to passing GLG this week (91) and also have a second-best +18% pass-to-run differential in this area. In a week with six teams on BYE, Johnson is an intriguing (and analytically promising) bet to get an end zone target.
He only has a single target inside opponents’ 20-yard line. Two tight ends with positive red zone regression likelihood this week? Yes please.
James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals (vs. Seattle Seahawks)
I’ve already voiced my outrage at James Conners’s 59.6% starting lineup percentage this week. This is the definition of a smash spot, and I wrote it up as such yesterday for DKN here.
Over his last four games, Conner’s PPR points are as follows:
- 17.2 (vs. Chargers’ above-average run defense)
- 14.9 (vs. Miami’s ascending defense)
- 14.9 (vs. Chicago’s average run defense)
- 22.3 (vs. Jets’ above-average run defense)
And now we get him at the Seahawks; easily the worst of the five defensive units here. Benson and Demercado will get their touches, but there’s no reason to believe the Cardinals won’t continue to bring Conner in on short-/goal-line-yardage situations, as they’ve done in every game so far.
There is no reason to believe, against this Seahawks unit, that Conner and the Cardinals (who have a rushing GLG of 89 this week, and +8% differential) won’t smash-mouth a touchdown in over the goal line.
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