It feels as if PPR fantasy’s RB16, James Conner, has remained one of the more polarizing names for fantasy managers among marquee NFL feature backs . Many came into the season high on Trey Benson, thinking that, surely, Conner wouldn’t last another full season. Those are also the folks that have forgotten Conner hasn’t played fewer than 13 games in a season over the last four years. Or the folks that said that Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. weren’t going to connect; the former would be too distracted by video games and the latter was too caught up in his apparel dispute. The list goes on.
Though the reasons were and are many, I’m just not entirely sure I understand. They were hot air then; now they’re just blast-chilling cold takes. Conner playing the Seahawks on Sunday—a defensive team with a NFL-bottom-ten performance, thus far, against the run—and is only in 59.6% of starting lineups.
Let’s make the case for Conner, I suppose, since some of us still need convincing. Even though it might be one of the premier fantasy football smash spots of the week.
Analysis
Assuming you drafted James Conner this year and he still remains on your roster, you likely nabbed him somewhere in between the late-fifth and early-seventh rounds. In other words: we drafted him as a FLEX-level asset, and he’s performing at a low-end RB1 per-game clip. He didn’t fall to RB16 until after the Cardinals’ BYE in Week 11.
I called Conner a league-winner back in August. Here’s some of my analysis to that end:
I did not think I’d be saying this in 2024, but I believe James Conner might win folks some fantasy drafts at his current ADP. Getting him here could prove critically important to your roster construction, no matter what draft strategy you employ.
Citing injury as a reason to fade Conner this far is simply silly: last season, he played in at least 13 games for the fourth straight season. That’s comfortably consistent.
Trey Benson has flashed in the preseason, but I think that’s going to be more of a future concern. Conner averaged a 62% snap share last season, and I don’t see Benson moving the needle on that number. I certainly don’t foresee Conner losing feature-back, high-value touches to Benson.
Last season, Conner finished as the RB13. How is it that he’s being drafted outside the top-15 running backs in 2024? It can’t be age. 29 years old is getting up there for a halfback, but it’s by no means a guarantee of a plummet in production.
By all projection models, the Cardinals’s passing offense in 2024 is going to lap its production from last season. This should hopefully open up more opportunities in the run game for Conner, who will also see his fair share of targets. Project him for around 36 receptions and in the ballpark of 250 receiving yards.
He’ll finish well inside the top-24 RBs this year. He’s the cheapest sure-thing RB2 on the board this late.
Granted, I also have Rome Odunze and Dalton Kincaid on this list, who’d need to take quite a leap to win anyone a week, let alone a league. But what I said of Conner has, at least, materialized to some degree.
Over his last four games, Conner’s PPR points are as follows:
- 17.2 (vs. Chargers’ above-average run defense)
- 14.9 (vs. Miami’s ascending defense)
- 14.9 (vs. Chicago’s average run defense)
- 22.3 (vs. Jets’ above-average run defense)
And now we get him at the Seahawks; easily the worst of the five defensive units here. Benson and Demercado will get their touches, but there’s no reason to believe the Cardinals won’t continue to bring Conner in on short-/goal-line-yardage situations, as they’ve done in every game so far.
Bottom Line
Perhaps this is more a plea to acquire James Conner in leagues where the trade deadline is next Tuesday. He gets Carolina in Week 16, and the Rams’ so-so defense in Week 17. The latter, which falls on most leagues’ fantasy championship match, will likely be a heated divisional battle between two teams fighting for playoff seeding/spots.
That 59.4% figure, which represents the percentage of starting lineups in which Conner currently features, is far too low. He’s about to have an RB1-caliber week. What are we doing?
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