As it would turn out, Brock Bowers can be a one-man wrecking machine when it comes to fantasy defense starters and streamers. My general faith in the Dolphins’ defense in Week 11 was shaped around the idea that Bowers—a rookie—wouldn’t be able to one-man show a scoring defense into below-replacement-level points. But alas. He’s just that good.
The Rams defense had a field day in New England, and both our Week 12 sits scored fewer than 10.0 FPTs (Buffalo and New Orleans). That’s a three-for-four week, friends. Hope you followed the right 75%!
Onto Week 12.
Start ‘Em
Washington Commanders D/ST (vs. Dallas Cowboys; 40.5% rostered)
Even Dallas fans are tired of Cooper Rush, despite his relatively-clean-but-still-unimpressive Monday Night Football outing against the Houston Texans. Calls for Trey Lance are coming, especially seeing as Cowboys fans have seen plenty of Cooper Rush in replacement of Dak Prescott over the years. They know his ceiling.
So, too, does this Commanders defensive squad. Joe Whitt Jr., Washington’s new DC, has this year emphasized speed more than ever in the pass rush so as to cause more turnover-yielding pressures. What run game hath this paltry Cowboys offense to combat the reckless due of Jonathan Allen and Montez Sweat, who are the primary contributors to Washington’s league-leading 29 sacks?
I’m surprised the industry is so low on this unit this week. It’s floating around the tenth-ranked defense this week, with six teams on BYE. This is a unit who holds opponents on third down 58% of the time, and only allows 184.4 passing yard per game. Their 21st-ranked passing DVOA gets a bump due to the poor matchup this week.
They’re an above-replacement-level start, at worst.
Arizona Cardinals D/ST (at Seattle Seahawks; 12.9% rostered)
Everyone must think the Cardinals are fools’ gold. 12.9% rostership for this defensive unit against an inconsistent Seahawks offense is a bit egregious. Not, however, as egregious as the 31.6% of leagues that aren’t starting James Conner against that team this week (I wrote about that here).
As of this moment, this unit ranks 13th in rushing DVOA, and 14th in passing DVOA. Average numbers, sure, but not if you isolate the last few weeks. In four of their last six weeks, the Cardinals D/ST has posted over 8.0 FPTs. The two games in which they scored fewer were against the Packers and the Dolphins.
Despite the Seahawks’ offensive weapons and potential for explosiveness, they’re the 25th-ranked offense against fantasy D/STs.
Smash start. Watch for big games from Budda Baker and Kyzir White.
Sit ‘Em
Tennessee Titans D/ST (vs. Houston Texans; 17.5% rostered)
Stroud & co. haven’t been as efficient through the air as 2023, even with Nico Collins back the past two weeks.
I don’t buy that this Titans unit, which has legitimately impressed as a more-solid-than-expected bunch, is going to play disruptor to playoff-bound offenses in the second half of the year. This is when teams are ramping up.
I think the Texans absolutely shell the Titans this week in Houston. Tank Dell is loosened up, and Nico Collins is two more weeks removed from the injury. Practices should be getting cleaner, and defenses are going to be so terrified of Joe Mixon’s breakaway potential that they might shorten their over-the-top coverage.
Stroud has a game on Sunday, and eviscerates this defense.
Chicago Bears D/ST (vs. Minnesota Vikings; 17.3% rostered)
This unit certainly has more to play for than the Titans unit above, though their playoff hopes are about the same. I expect the Bears to play hard all through the season, if only because expectations were set so high coming into ’23-’24. The organization will want to evaluate for the future.
Still—ever since the loss of Jaquon Brisker, this unit hasn’t been the same. They’re elite in passing DVOA (sixth in the NFL) and elitely poor in rush DVOA (30th in the league). The Vikings have found something with Aaron Jones and Cam Akers, and their offensive line, even without Darrisaw, is good enough to bully the Bears’ front seven.
This is also an offense that has Justin Jefferson. So, at any given time, a replacement-level fantasy day might be obliterated. Sit them.
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