The return of Nico Collins was, dare I say, slightly underwhelming for fantasy managers. While the Texans easily handled the Cowboys 34-10 on Monday Night Football in Week 11, Collins and his fellow wideout Tank Dell finished with the same stat line: 4/7 for 54 yards and zero scores. With a combined 19.20 fantasy points, it’s safe to say Collins’ and Dell’s performances were underwhelming. It’s also key to note that Collins appeared to be on a snap count, playing only 28 of 60 offensive snaps (46.7%)—his lowest snap percentage in the past two seasons.
We look on to Week 12 now, where Houston will host the 2-8 Titans in an AFC South matchup. Will we see bounce-back performances from the Texans’ wideouts?
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Let’s get the obvious out of the way. The Titans offense is struggling. Tennessee ranks 31st in the league in passing yards per game (1,975), 29th in passing success rate (39.5%), middle of the pack in rush yards per attempt (16th), and 28th in points per game (17.0). However, the Titans defense has been holding their own against opposing offenses. Tennessee currently allows the lowest passing yards per game (164.6) and the second-lowest fantasy points per game to wide receivers (14.4).
A huge factor in Collins’ and Dell’s lack of production in Week 11 is due to the Texans’ weak offensive line. Stroud faced pressure on 36.8% of drop backs and had an estimated time to throw under 2.5 seconds on 52.9% of snaps. Micah Parsons generated 10 pressures on 36 pass rushes (27.8% pressure rate)—tied for his most pressures in a game in his career—and 6/10 of those came against right tackle Tytus Howard. Plain and simple, Stroud has not been supported by a solid offensive line and and faced a fair amount of pressure, spiking the ball once and targeting the backfield and tight areas 29.4% of attempts.
I’d expect Collins to get back to his normal form and on a regular snap count when Sunday rolls around. While the Titans defense is stingy, Sam Darnold, Justin Jefferson and the Vikings were able to put up 236 passing yards—81 to Jefferson—on Tennessee in Week 11. Dell, however, hasn’t seen consistent targets when Collins in on the field. Weeks 1-3, Dell faced just 17 targets, versus being peppered 18 times in total across the last two games Collins was out.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
