It’s time to put all the negativity on the shelves and delve, into this 10-game slate for Week 12. Time has indeed flown, as I already see Christmas decorations and colorful elves. It’s a little ridiculous if you ask me. We haven’t even expunged our Thanksgiving swells! But I ain’t here to yell. Only try and dispel, misinformation so we can enrich ourselves. Ascertain coaching tendencies and tells. And excel. So that the players we click gel, then propel us to the land where everyone jumps and yells because we strap on the belt that indicates much wealth.
There are 10 games on the main slate. DraftKings Sportsbook has five games with an O/U of at least 45: DET/IND (50.5), NE/MIA (46), DAL/WAS (45), SF/GB (48.5) and ARI/SEA (47.5). There is one game with a total of 40 or below: MIN/CHI (39.5).
There are two double-digit spread favorites: KC -11 over CAR and WAS -10 over DAL. There are two games within a field goal: GB -1.5 over SF and ARI -1 over SEA. There are five home dogs: NYG, CAR, IND, CHI and LV.
Six teams are on bye: ATL, BUF, CIN, JAX, NO and NYJ.
DISCLAIMER: This piece is written early in the week, so it won’t factor in injuries or lineup changes that occur closer to Sunday.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st].
Quarterback
Stud
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks ($6,200) – The range of outcomes has been extremely wide for Murray this season. He has five games over 20 FPTS but two games below 10 FPTS. Both of those games were blowouts. This game has a healthy total of 47.5 and the spread is only 1 point. The Cardinals currently sit atop the NFC West, but only by one game, so it should be a competitive affair. The floor/ceiling combo looks to be a nice one for Murray as he will likely provide at least 15 FPTS with a ceiling in the 28 FPTS range. The rushing prowess is the most enticing aspect of his game. He’s rushed for at least 45 yards in five games and has scored four rushing touchdowns.
Other Options – Jared Goff ($6,600), Brock Purdy ($6,400), Bo Nix ($6,300)
Value
Drake Maye, New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins ($5,900) – Since becoming a starter, Maye has scored double-digit FPTS in every contest, with two over 20. He’s a rookie and has made some rookie mistakes, translating to six interceptions, but the game doesn’t look too fast for him or overwhelmed him. He’s made some really nice throws. While he doesn’t run as much of Kyler Murray, Maye has rushed for 260 yards and a touchdown in seven games, with a high of 95 yards. The Dolphins offense is starting to hum, so points will likely be scored, which means Maye will have to be aggressive and make plays.
Other Options – Tua Tagovailoa ($5,800), Geno Smith ($5,700), Anthony Richardson ($5,600)
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Running Back
Stud
James Conner, Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks ($6,500) – I like Kenneth Walker III as well in this game. Conner is $400 cheaper and is more involved in the passing game, but Walker has home-run ability. As mentioned in the Kyler Murray section above, this game should be highly competitive. Conner has scored double-digit FPTS in all but two games this season. Over the last four games, he’s scored at least 14 FPTS in all with two above 20. He’s carried 12, 18, 20 and 10 times while catching at least two passes in all. He’s gone over 100 yards rushing twice and scored two touchdowns. The Seahawks are the fifth-most generous in EPA per carry.
Other Options – Christian McCaffrey ($8,500), Joe Mixon ($8,000), De’Von Achane ($7,500), Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,300), Kenneth Walker III ($6,900), David Montgomery ($6,700), Isiah Pacheco ($6,200) if he starts
Value
Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys ($5,600) – Robinson is splitting the snaps with Austin Ekeler, which caps the upside, but the floor is pretty high and he could hit a ceiling outcome this week, as the Cowboys have allowed the most EPA per carry by a wide margin. In addition, Washington is a 10-point favorite at home, so the game script should be favorable. Robinson has scored double-digit FPTS in all but one game this season and scored seven touchdowns. He should get the bulk of the red zone carries as well. Last week, he received one while Ekeler was shut out.
Other Options – Tyrone Tracy Jr. ($6,000), Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,900), Rachaad White ($5,400), Bucky Irving ($5,300), Javonte Williams ($5,200)
Wide Receiver
Stud
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks ($6,300) – As you can tell from above, I do like this game to provide some fantasy goodies. Over the last two weeks, JSN has received 11 and 13 targets, turning those into 10 and seven receptions for 110 and 180 yards with two touchdowns. That translated to 24.8 and 40 FPTS.
Other Options – Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,300), Nico Collins ($7,600), Tyreek Hill ($7,200), DK Metcalf ($6,600), Deebo Samuel ($6,500), Marvin Harrison Jr. ($6,100)
Value
Jauan Jennings, San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers ($5,600) – No Brandon Aiyuk, no problem for the 49ers as Jennings has filled in admirably. Over the last two games, Jennings has garnered 11 targets in each, converting those into 10 and seven receptions for 91 and 93 yards with a touchdown. Back in Week 3, Jennings caught 11 of 12 targets for 175 yards and three touchdowns. The stars aligned in that one, with multiple injuries, but that’s the kind of ceiling he possesses. This game has a healthy total of 47.5 and the 49ers should be well motivated, losing to Seattle last week and being one game back for the division lead.
Other Options – Courtland Sutton ($5,800), Deandre Hopkins ($5,400), Christian Watson ($5,200), Xavier Worthy ($5,000), Alec Pierce ($4,900), Tyler Lockett ($4,800), Kendrick Bourne ($3,600)
Tight End
Stud
Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos ($6,300) – In a season mired with Ls and blackness, one ray of light shining on the Black Hole has been Bowers. The rookie tight end leads the position with 89 targets. Last week, he caught 13 of 16 targets for 126 yards and a touchdown. In the Week 5 game against Denver, Bowers hauled in eight of 12 targets for 97 yards and a touchdown.
Other Options – Trey McBride ($5,600), Jake Ferguson ($4,400), TJ Hockenson ($4,200), Jonnu Smith ($4,100)
Value
Ja’Tavion Sanders, Carolina Panthers vs. Kansas City Chiefs ($3,400) – The Chiefs are coming off their first loss of the season and are 11-point favorites on the road. So, Carolina will more than likely be chasing points in this one. On the season, the Chiefs have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points on average to tight ends. They’ve allowed the second-most receptions and most yards. The production has been inconsistent for Sanders, but he caught four of five targets for 87 yards two games ago and had a two-game stretch in Weeks 6 and 7 receiving six and seven targets.
Other Options – Hunter Henry ($4,000), Theo Johnson ($2,900)
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Vikings DST at Chicago Bears ($3,400) – The Vikings DST has allowed the fifth-lowest EPA per dropback and blitzes at the second-highest rate in the league. Caleb Williams has the eight-lowest EPA per dropback and has been sacked at the highest rate. The Vikings DST has racked up 16 interceptions, five fumbles, 35 sacks, and scored three touchdowns. The unit has put up double-digit FPTS in all but two games this season.
Other Options – Chiefs DST ($3,900), Lions DST ($3,700), Texans DST ($3,600), Commanders DST ($3,500), Buccaneers DST ($3,300), Broncos DST ($3,200)
Value
A very interesting week for defenses as I don’t like any of the cheaper ones and there are a ton of options I like on the high end.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st].
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
