The 6-4 Houston Texans travel to Dallas to take on the 3-6 Cowboys on Monday Night Football. The Texans have been floating around a touchdown road favorite in this one all week, and they’ll be the bettors choice in this one for sure (with over 80% of the money on DraftKings Sportsbook laying the points as of late Monday morning).
The Texans are just 4-5-1 ATS this season, so while I do think Houston finds a way to win the game, this is a lot of points to lay. But the Cowboys remain winless at home this season, so it’s easy to see why the money is piling in. Before we get into my play for the game, there is an interesting trend on the Texans that I feel would be a better way to back them in this game. Houston is 9-1 ATS in the first half of games this season, getting off to very strong starts. Laying Texans -4 for the first half, or backing the Texans on First Half/Full Game double result is a better play to me than backing them for the full game.
That said, I’ll be staying away from a side in this one, and backing a big game from Joe Mixon. Outside of the game that Mixon left against the Bears due to injury, last week against the Lions was the first full game Mixon played this season that he was held under 100 rushing yards. It wasn’t for lack of workload either, as Mixon saw 25 carries, but Detroit’s elite run defense held him to an impressive 46 rushing yards.
In all five full games prior to the loss to Detroit, Mixon had gone for at least 102 yards, and even more encouraging, is that he’s been handed the ball at least 24 times in each of his last four games. That means we can count on a steady workload on Monday night in Dallas, which presents an ideal matchup for Mixon. The Cowboys rank 31st in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game at over 152, but the numbers get worse.
After giving up 187 yards on the ground last week to the Eagles, the Cowboys are now surrendering over 170 rushing yards per game over their last three. And if we want to isolate just home games here, Dallas is allowing a ridiculous 208.8 rushing yards per game at AT&T Stadium this season. We’ll see if Houston can win with margin here or not, but I’m confident that regardless of how the game script in this one goes, Mixon will remain heavily involved.
I’m playing the over on his rushing total, but if you want to build a Same Game Parlay like we did on Thursday night with Saquon Barkley that cashed, you could also look to build on this. Mixon to go for 100 rushing yards and a touchdown in a Houston victory is priced at around +216 in this one, if that floats you boat.
PLAY: Joe Mixon OVER 86.5 Rushing Yards (-115) 1-unit
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
