Fridays are for Five Lists of Five here at DKNetwork, and it’s sticks season! Week 11. Sticks. 11—get it? Sure you do. Energy is high! As is uncertainty abound. Big question marks still hang over players like Amari Cooper, Dalton Kincaid, Sam LaPorta, Tee Higgins, etc. We need fantasy football stashes. Fantasy football streamers. It never ends.
A reminder of the premise behind this specific series of lists: All I want is for you to be better than your friends. You’re going to be surrounded by them on Sunday, probably. How sweet would it be if you could be sure you’ve checked every box possible that might guarantee you a resounding victory this week? Some kick-your-feet-up insights? I’ve got some.
Again—I know my audience. The smoke-break audience. The quick-scan-of-the-phone-on-the-way-to-the-fridge audience. The give-me-as-much-info-as-possible-as-fast-as-possible audience. I’m a man of the people.
And so, once more: Five Lists of Five. Think of these as byte-sized, two-minutes-to-yourself lists to scan during your weekend as you foam at the mouth for any competitive fantasy edge. As much relevant analysis as I can fit into, like, 250 words per player.
Kicking it off this week with my top five fantasy football players most likely to score a touchdown in Week 11. I explain the metric and the methodology below, but these are all players I believe are must-starts in season-long fantasy, represent proportionate or good value in DFS, and worth decent looks for Anytime TD bets on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Also available from this week’s Fantasy Fridays Five Lists of Five:
- Top five fantasy football players to stash ahead of NFL Week 11
- Top five fantasy football must-starts and smash spots for NFL Week 11
- Top five fantasy football streamers for NFL Week 11
- Top five wide receivers due for fantasy football breakouts in NFL Week 11
Pay ‘Em Dirt
A little scientific abstract, here, before we get into the body of the dissertation, please. We’re going to be referencing a metric in this piece called Goal Line Grade (GLG), developed by Kyle Senra, an analyst at FantasySixPack. It’s a way to evaluate potential goal-line efficiency at a team-and-matchup level by following these steps:
Quantify Offensive Goal-Line Performance:
- Measure each offense’s touchdown efficiency on plays run within the opponent’s five-yard line.
- Bucket the data into rushing and passing plays.
Analyze Opposing Defensive Goal-Line Metrics:
- Assess the total touchdowns and percentage allowed by each opposing defense near their goal line.
- Correlate these metrics with the respective offense’s performance.
Integrate Projected Scoring Market Data:
- Incorporate DraftKings Sportsbooks‘ implied/projected totals for each team.
Compute Goal Line Play Type Disparity:
- Determine the variance between each offense’s rushing and passing grades.
- Identify the dominant area (rushing or passing) for each team based on the calculated difference.
In doing so, we’re left with both a firm reading on an offense’s effectiveness and effective tendencies within the five-yard line. As such, we’ll be able to best determine which teams, in their Week 11 matchups, are the most efficient in goal-to-go situations.
Here are the five running backs I think are most likely to score TDs, according to their team’s GLG, this week.
Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Los Angeles Chargers)
A little surprised at this, seeing how stout the Chargers defense is. But Cincinnati leads the way in Rushing GLG this week among all teams with 99.6. Through eleven weeks, the Bengals have a +22.6 rush-to-pass differential in in this model, which ranks sixth in the league.
For a team that’s been ballyhooed to have zero running game, this model sure thinks Chase Brown is a great bet to score a touchdown this weekend. He’s currently -125 to score an Anytime TD on DraftKings Sportsbook, which is a legitimate value for someone with the top potential to hit paydirt on Week 11’s slate.
Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams (vs. New England Patriots)
The Rams and the Lions (more below) are tied for second in Week 11 for Rushing GLG (96.5). This feels unsurprising, as the Rams’ offensive line hasn’t exactly allowed for much else to develop in goal-to-go situations in the passing game. Even there, Kyren Williams has three touchdown catches from Matthew Stafford.
Williams is, obviously, a must-start at New England this week. His current Anytime TD price on DraftKings Sportsbook is -220, so Brown still feels like the better value here. However, Williams’s 2+ TDs odds of +245 might be juicy enough to toss some pizza/beer money on.
The Rams are second in the league in rush-to-pass differential by this model with +28.
David Montgomery / Jahmyr Gibbs, RBs, Detroit Lions (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)
We didn’t exactly need the metrics to tell us this one, did we, folks? There was no question we were rolling out Montgomery and Gibbs in our season-long lineups. But we might have been hesitant to pay their salaries in DFS. GLG says fear not.
There once was a time when Montgomery was considered a potential fringe draft asset. Someone whose role would fade as Gibbs got older, perhaps a bit more durable. But, for Ben Johnson and Dan Campbell, it was always going to be Sonic and Knuckles. And Montgomery is the clear driver of this stratospheric Goal Line Grade, but Gibbs gets his drives, too.
I think the play, here, would be to parlay these two’s Anytime TD bets for +160. And, if you had to choose in DFS, it’d be Gibbs for me this week.
Alvin Kamara (vs. Cleveland Browns)
I already wrote up Kamara as a smash start this week:
As the Saints offense gears up for a frisky winter with its rag-tag cast of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Taysom Hill, Juwan Johnson, and Derek Carr, superstar Alvin Kamara might be in for quite a fantasy stretch run. We know that the Saints’ offense need not be anything better than league-average for Kamara to eat heartily around the holidays.
The Browns defense ranks 14th in the league in EPA/rush, which means it’s plain-old average at stopping the run. Had Kamara not dropped that pass last week for a clear touchdown, he’d be too big a name to even include on this list.
The Saints have the fourth-highest rushing Goal Line Grade this week, and are also fourth in the league through eleven weeks in rush-to-pass differential at the goal line with +26.5.
There’s always the shot that Taysom Hill might vulture a touchdown, so Hill’s +165 Anytime TD odds on DraftKings Sportsbook is worth a look. But, if we follow this data, Kamara’s a fantastic DFS play this week, and well worth his own -150 Anytime TD price.
Joe Mixon, RB, Houston Texans (vs. Dallas Cowboys)
This feels a bit like the Montgomery/Gibbs writeup, seeing as Mixon feels like the only thing that’s working for the Texans as it pertains to offensive scoring. They’re fifth in the league this week in rushing Goal Line Grade, with a score of 88.5. However, their rush-to-pass playcalling differential is only at +10.5 on the rushing side.
That’s fine. Mixon catches passes from Stroud out of the backfield, too. And it has not been pretty watching C.J. Stroud trying to force passes in the red area. He’s well-below league-average in EPA/dropback within the opponent’s 20-yard line.
The Texans were on primetime last week, too, and Mixon was visibly frustrated. He’ll hit paydirt under Monday Night Lights this week.
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