The NBA season is not even one-quarter of the way through but there have already been some massive shifts in the Awards departments. Near the top of this list is the Rookie of the Year race which has seen some drastic odds shifts.
While you can check out the full opening odds and breakdowns of each player here, this is a peak into the start of the careers of the next era of NBA talent and how the odds have reacted. This article dives into the updated favorites for Rookie of the Year, what the player has shown thus far, and an updated outlook for the top names. You also can check out the full Rookie of the Year betting odds on DraftKings Sportsbook here.
Jared McCain: (+350) – Philadelphia 76ers
There is a surprise new front-runner in the Rookie of the Year race as Philadelphia 76ers guard Jared McCain has leaped to the front of the line. After opening with +3500 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, the 16th overall pick has benefitted from an injured Sixers lineup and made the most of his opportunity.
In his first 11 games at the NBA level, McCain has averaged 13.5 points, 2.3 assists, and 2.1 rebounds in just 18.9 minutes per game. The Duke product was held to 17:24 minutes of game action or fewer in six of the first seven games this season. He then broke out playing 30+ minutes in each of the past four games and has produced scoring outputs of 18, 27, 23, and 34 points in these games. This 34-point output is the most tallied by any rookie so far this season. McCain leads all rookies in total points, three-pointers made, free throws, and is fifth in assists.
The 20-year-old has clearly proven to be more NBA-ready than the expectation for him and could not have made a better case for why he deserves minutes moving forward. The biggest concern with his Rookie of the Year outlook is if his minutes are cut once the Sixers begin to return to full strength. So far this season the star trio of Joel Embiid, Paul George, and Tyrese Maxey have suited up for just 13 of a possible 33 games so far this season.
Despite their 2-9 start, the Sixers still have deep playoff aspirations and will not have the patience to play through rookie growing pains. McCain is a caliber of talent that belongs in the Rookie of the Year conversation and has done everything possible to make his case for why he deserves to continue receiving minutes. It will be interesting to see what his level of opportunity looks like moving forward, but Jared McCain has been one of the biggest winners across the entire NBA to start this season thus far.
Zaccharie Risacher: (+425) – Atlanta Hawks
You rarely see as little hype around a number-one overall pick as was the case with Zaccharie Risacher this season. He opened with +900 odds at the start of the season but has opened some eyes and shown why he was selected with the top pick.
Through the opening 12 games of his NBA career, Risacher has averaged 11.7 points, 4.0 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 1.1 steals in his 26.8 minutes per game. He had his best performance against the New York Knicks where he logged 33 minutes of play and produced 33 points, seven rebounds, three assists, three steals, and two blocks which included shooting 6-10 from beyond the three-point arc.
Risacher has been especially impressive defensively and makes use of his 8-foot-11 standing reach. He also has yet to knock down three-pointers at the expected rate as he shot over 40% from beyond the arc overseason, but has shot just 24.6% through the early parts of this season.
The Hawks are in an interesting spot as a franchise as they attempt to re-tool to get back into the contending conversation rather than a full rebuild. While they are still focused on winning games, there is a bit more leash for their young players with Risacher headlining this. He has looked much more like a top pick than most expected and should continue to see his role grow throughout the season.
Zach Edey (+475) – Memphis Grizzlies
After entering the season as the favorite at +350 odds, Zach Edey has dropped back a bit in the Rookie of the Year race. The two-time AP Player of the Year has had some growing pains when making the NBA leap which is to be expected. Edey has started nine of the first 12 games and averaged 11.3 points and 6.8 rebounds in his 20.3 minutes per game.
The Edey believers and doubters have both been vindicated at different points at the start of the season. The Purdue product had his best game against the Brooklyn Nets where he produced 25 points, 12 rebounds, and four blocks while also knocking down a three-pointer in the game. However, he also has been limited to under 15 minutes of play in four games this season.
The biggest question Edey faced throughout college and leading up to the draft was can Edey’s unique size and frame can be relied on as a regular starter and be a matchup-proof player. Through the opening 12 games that remains unclear. Edey has had his moments where he has greatly struggled when forced out on the perimeter but possesses a competitiveness that should prevent anyone from counting him out.
Edey has not been able to assert himself as much as his biggest believers likely hoped, but his outlook remains mostly the same. He will continue to be a rotation player for this Grizzlies team and will have to live through the ups and downs that come with the various matchups. A bet on Edey to win Rookie of the Year may be more about the disbelief in the rest of the rookie class being able to outperform him as he is in line for one of the more guaranteed roles on a solid Grizzlies squad.
Carlton “Bub” Carrington: (+700) – Washington Wizards
The Washington Wizards added Alexander Sarr with the second overall pick in the draft and Carlton “Bub” Carrington with the 14th pick in this past year’s draft. While Sarr holds the fifth-best odds at +1000, it has been Bub Carrington who has shined the most and holds +700 odds to win Rookie of the Year to start the season. Sarr entered the season with +1300 odds for the award while Carrington held +1600 odds for Rookie of the Year at the start of the season.
Carrington has a more statically impactful game and has seen more opportunities this season. Through the opening 10 games he has played, the Pittsburgh product has averaged 9.9 points, 5.1 assists, 4.5 rebounds, and 1.3 steals per game across his 30.0 minutes of play. In contrast, Sarr has averaged 9.5 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks per game in his 25.3 minutes of play per game.
The Wizards are still working to figure out their long-term outlook and who their foundational pieces will be. Bilal Coulibaly has been a major beneficiary of the freedom and has shown significant growth throughout last year and this season. Carrington is capable of following this same path and is not as raw as Coulibaly was when he first entered the league.
Other Offensive Rookie of the Year Current Odds:
- Stephon Castle: +1600
- Jaylen Wells: +2200
- Ryan Dunn: +2200
- Dalton Knecht: +2500
- Kyle Filipowski: +3000
- Donovan Clingan: +3000
- Yves Missi: +3000
- Kyshawn George: +3500
- Jamal Shead: +4000
- Cody Williams: +7500
- Reed Sheppard: +8000
Best Bet: Dalton Knecht (+2500)
Jared McCain is the rightful front-runner for Rookie of the Year, but you missed the boat on getting in a high-value ticket. I still fear when the Sixers return to full strength there will not be enough available minutes for the Duke product to maintain this spot. While McCain has earned a role as at least a rotation player, this may not be enough to win Rookie of the Year.
One player with value on the Rookie of the Year board who is worth grabbing a ticket is Dalton Knecht. The Tennessee rookie opened the season with +1100 odds to win the award but has dropped to +2500 after the first 11 games. It is a long season and Knecht has not found his full footing, but the flashes are there.
Through the opening 11 games, he has averaged 7.3 points, 1.8 rebounds, and 1.3 assists in his 18.2 minutes per game. There feels to be a growing frustration with D’Angelo Russell which could open the door for more minutes for Knecht if the Lakers fully act on this. In the most recent matchup with the Grizzlies, Knecht saw a career-high 31:08 of game time and produced 19 points, three assists, and two rebounds while shooting 5-5 from beyond the three-point arc. Knecht currently ranks seventh in the team in minutes but has started one game and has seen some minutes in each game.
There is a lot of basketball left in the season and expect him to be in the mix at the season’s conclusion. +2500 is a valuable ticket to hold and Knecht will benefit from the bright lights of Los Angeles if it ends up a narrow race.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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