The 2024-25 NBA season has now arrived following an eventful offseason. A new class of rookies has entered the league and will be looking to carve out their paths and put themselves on the NBA map.
While this rookie class does not possess as many household names as we are accustomed to, there is still plenty of talent and guys who will impact the future of the NBA in a major way in the coming years. It also leaves plenty of value in the Rookie of the Year betting markets as there is not as large of a consensus favorite as can often be the case.
This is a difficult future to fully evaluate as there are plenty of factors that go into it and the decision is ultimately decided based on voters. Factors like fit within a team and the quality of the player in front of them are out of the player’s control. However, the cream typically rises to the top and only one player will ultimately take home the award.
Let’s take a look at the top Rookie of the Year Candidates and each player’s route to the Rookie of the Year award. You can check out the full Rookie of the Year betting odds on DraftKings Sportsbook here.
Zach Edey: (+350) – Memphis Grizzlies
Selected with the ninth overall pick in this year’s draft, Zach Edey has been one of the more polarizing players across basketball in recent years. Standing 7-foot-4, Edey is the tallest player in Big Ten history and will immediately challenge Victor Wembanyama as the tallest player in the NBA. Edey is a two-time AP Player of the Year and two-time Naismith Award winner who averaged 25.2 points, 12.2 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 2.2 blocks per game last year at Purdue. Edey led the Big Ten in points, rebounds, field goal percentage, and effective field goal percentage in each of the past two seasons.
The biggest question mark surrounding Edey will be how his style of play translates to the NBA. While he has taken some massive strides forward in his movement ability, Edey is still more dependent on post-production than any other player in the NBA. The Canada native tallied 21 post-ups in the preseason which is more than any other player has ever recorded based on Second Spectrum tracking. He produced 1.31 points per possession on these opportunities. To put this in perspective, three-time MVP Nikola Jokic led the NBA in post-production last year with six per game and produced 1.14 points per possession in these opportunities.
Edey is expected to be the primary starter for the Grizzlies this season which should help his opportunity. He also has shown some nice chemistry with Ja Morant in pick-and-roll opportunities. The Grizzlies are expecting to take a massive step forward this season after an injury-riddled year last year and will need Edey’s production to get there. He will have the opportunity to play significant minutes in one of the better situations in the rookie class so if he makes an immediate impact the pathway to Rookie of the Year is there.
Reed Sheppard: (+700) – Houston Rockets
Selected with the third overall pick, Reed Sheppard joins a crowded and youthful Houston Rockets roster. There will need to be some difficult decisions made in Houston regarding who the franchise should truly build around, but Sheppard will receive his chance to prove why he should be considered a foundational piece.
Reed Sheppard was not looked at as an expected top pick entering last season but outperformed several of the higher-ranked recruits on the Kentucky roster. In his one-and-done season, he averaged 12.5 points, 4.5 assists, 4.1 rebounds, and 2.5 steals per game. Sheppard also knocked down 52.1% of his three-point attempts while launching 4.4 long-range attempts per game. He looked incredibly sharp in the summer league and has a style of play that can translate on just about any team.
The biggest concern for Sheppard is how the minutes will be split up. Fred VanVleet, Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Amen Thomson, Cam Whitmore, and Tari Eason will each be in the mix for minutes and Houston is allowing each of these talented prospects to earn their role. The lack of guaranteed opportunity is slightly concerning, but Sheppard has a polished game and has flashed some areas of his play in the preseason and summer league which he did not show at Kentucky.
Zaccharie Risacher: (+900) – Atlanta Hawks
The Atlanta Hawks selected Zaccharie Risacher with the first overall pick in this year’s draft. Standing 6-foot-9 and a career 40.7% three-point shooter from his three seasons playing professionally overseas, the hope is for Risacher to grow into the three-and-D style of player every team desires.
Atlanta is in a strange place as a franchise and elected to break up their star backcourt duo by trading Dejounte Murray this offseason. Trae Young remains the franchise centerpiece and they will be hoping for Jalen Johnson to take the next step this season. Risacher has a chance to grow into a key part of this core, but the Hawks will be operating with a bit more urgency than your typical team selecting first overall. He needs to add some weight to his frame and will struggle at times this season, but Risacher was still selected with the top pick for a reason.
The biggest reason for doubt regarding his Rookie of the Year chances is how much Risacher will have the ball in his hands. He plays a low-usage style of basketball, which is necessary when sharing the floor with Trae Young but also somewhat limiting to his upside. Expect Risacher to get plenty of opportunities this season and be a key part of the rotation, but it is fair to asses his ceiling is lower than the top pick in most years.
Matas Buzelis: (+1000) – Chicago Bulls
It was a bit of a surprise to see Matas Buzelis slip to the 11th overall pick on draft night. The Chicago Bulls were thrilled to see it happen and snatched up the hometown kid after he spent last season with the G League Ignite. Standing 6-foot-10 with an advanced handle, impressive explosiveness, and some legitimate creation ability- Buzelis has a chance to be a true foundational part of the Bulls moving forward.
Buzelis still has to add some weight to his frame and was a streaky shooter with the Ignite. The Bulls are coming off a 39-43 record and will be looking to take a step forward this season. Buzelis fits around the Bulls’ young core and will provide some necessary creation ability to their offense.
There is not the cleanest outlook for minutes for the rookie but Buzelis should be good enough to earn a role rather quickly. The biggest concern for his Rookie of the Year campaign is the poor track record for Ignite products translating to the NBA. Players like Scoot Henderson, Jalen Green, and Jonathan Kuminga have not made an immediate impact upon making the NBA leap and Buzelis will need to break this streak. Once expected to grow into one of the largest NBA feeder programs, the Ignite shut down largely due to the ever-changing landscape. While this is something to keep in mind, Buzelis has been considered a top prospect for just about the entirety of his life and there is still plenty to like on the tape we have seen.
Stephon Castle: (+1100) – San Antonio Spurs
Another player who opened some eyes with his summer league play is Stephon Castle. The UConn product was drafted with the 4th overall pick and will be joining forces with Victor Wembayama as the Spurs begin their climb back to NBA relevancy. Castle started 30 of the the possible 34 games for the National Champion winner, averaging 11.1 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 2.9 assists per game.
The biggest concern with Castle is that his projected NBA role will look much different than the version of him that was seen in college. His camp made it extremely clear leading up to the draft that he viewed himself as a point guard and ball-dominant in his style of play. However, when you watch his UConn tape he operated in the dunker spot a great deal of the time with Tristen Newton leading the offense. Castle also shot just 26.7% on three-point attempts on the season.
Seeing Castle play a different style and have success at the summer league was settling to see. Ultimately he seems like a winning player who can fit into just about any role and the shooting concerns did not show face in his high school or AAU play. The addition of Chris Paul limits the opportunity for point guard minutes for Castle this season. While he is going to help the team in a major way, my biggest concern is it does not show on the box score as much as people would like to see. Expect Castle to be a key part of the Spurs core moving forward, but he will be tested with his three-point shot before the red carpet is laid out for significant minutes.
Dalton Knecht: (+1100) – Los Angeles Lakers
It has been a rapid rise to the spotlight for Dalton Knecht. The 23-year-old has had a unique path to the NBA at this point which involved starting his college career at Northeastern Junior College in Colorado before transferring to Northern Colorado and then eventually Tennessee. During his lone year playing SEC basketball, Knecht led the conference in scoring averaging 21.7 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 1.8 assists. He was the engine of the Tennessee offense and also shot 39.7% on three-point attempts while shooting 6.5 long-range attempts per game.
Knecht was also a surprising player to slip down draft boards and was selected by the Los Angeles Lakers with the 17th overall pick. While he may be overshadowed in the headlines by second-round pick Bronny James, there is a much more clear route for Knecht to make an immediate impact on this Lakers team. His age was held against him in the evaluation period, but Knecht is about as NBA-ready as a prospect can come. He should have a role in the Lakers rotation immediately.
Knecht has shined in preseason including producing a recent 35-point performance in which he scored 20 consecutive points for the Lakers. JJ Redick is a great fit for him as a coach as Knecht has a somewhat similar skill set to what Redick possessed during his playing days. Knecht also is a few inches bigger and is a better athlete than Redick ever was. With the bright lights of Los Angeles on him, the attention will be there for Dalton Knecht if his level of play is Rookie of the Year worthy.
Other Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds:
- Alexandre Sarr: +1300
- Carlton ‘Bub’ Carrington: +1600
- Rob Dillingham: +1700
- Ron Holland: +2000
- Donovan Clingan: +2000
- Cody Williams: +2500
- Kel’el Ware: +3500
- Tidjane Salaun: +3500
- Jared McCain: +3500
- Terrence Shannon Jr: +4000
My Pick: Matas Buzelis (+1000)
There is a case to be made for a number of the players on this list, but Matas Buzelis is my prediction for who will be raising the Rookie of the Year trophy at the season’s conclusion. Buzelis finds himself in a unique situation in Chicago, as he should get guaranteed minutes and potentially earn a starting spot on a team that will still hold some sort of playoff (or more likely play-in) hopes.
While the Ingite track record has not been strong, Buzelis was the fifth-ranked player in the 2023 recruiting class based on 247 Sports and 11th based on ESPN rankings. He comes from a family of professional basketball players, mostly in Lithuania, and was raised in Chicago so there should not be as significant of an adjustment period.
On the court, Buzelis has a complete game balanced with flash and a willingness to do the dirty work. He does not hesitate to attempt to rise up and dunk on opponents while possessing the creation ability to put the ball on the floor and get to his spots. He is a versatile defender who is a talented shot-blocker and is capable of switching out to guards on the perimeter. The effectiveness of the jump shot will swing his outlook in a major way, but all the tools are there for Buzelis.
With an intriguing combination of talent and opportunity, I like the +1000 swing for Matas Buzelis to win Rookie of the Year this NBA season.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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