I don’t know about you. But, after what was a bizarre and frustrating Sunday Night Football from a fantasy scoring perspective, I’m really hoping this game tonight can provide some fireworks. And why not? The fantasy-relevant names, many of whom remain in starting lineups with head-to-head matches hanging in the balance, are many: Cooper Kupp, Kyren Williams, Tyreek Hill, De’Von Achane, Puka Nacua, Jaylen Waddle. You could even throw Raheem Mostert in there, as I’m sure some folks did at FLEX.
Optimism on prop markets (unless you were a John Metchie III backer) wasn’t the play last night. But, may I remind you: Murphy’s Law! For every dud, there will be a dynamite.
As for player-specific markets, I’ve got a Cooper Kupp prop by which I’m deliciously intrigued. Click any of the below links with the odds to ferry yourself right to Cooper’s prop page on DraftKings Sportsbook!
I also wrote up a Puka Nacua prop for tonight I think is borderline must-bet.
Best Cooper Kupp prop bet for Rams vs. Dolphins on Monday Night Football
Cooper Kupp Rushing + Receiving Yards o65.5 (-115)
Oddly enough, Kupp’s rush + rec yards o/u in this game is lower than his receiving yards line of 67.5. And that’s set at -120 odds. Which is to say: the market believes Cooper Kupp is going to lose 2-3 rushing yards against the Dolphins tonight.
Not me! I know Kupp will occasionally hit a jet sweep or, much more frequently, be used in the screen game as an extension of the running attack. But the idea that the market is definitively saying that play would result in a loss of yards is just too absolute for me to not see this as an extreme value.
Even with cantankerous ankles, the anvil weight of time slowing his ability to change directions, Kupp’s extremely effective on a per touch basis. He’s averaging 8.5 yards per touch this year. As sufficient as that may be, it’s actually down over the last two years. In 2022, he averaged 10.8 yards per reception and 5.8 yards per carry over nine games. In 2023, his efficiency increased slightly in receiving, averaging 12.5 yards per reception.
One of the primary reasons? Matthew Stafford hasn’t had any time to throw the ball, and hasn’t had a consistent offensive line gelling to protect him. That, however, changes tonight.
A boost up front: the Rams are expected to activate OL Steve Avila and Jonah Jackson off injured reserve ahead of Monday night’s matchup vs. Miami.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 9, 2024
The Rams’ offensive line is the healthiest its been since Week 1. The significance of this cannot be understated.
Why the above matters for Cooper Kupp Rushing + Receiving Yards o65.5
I did mention in my last article: I do think the Rams are going to be a bit hesitant to throw outside in the short-to-medium game, as the expectation is that former Ram Jalen Ramsey is going to be playing his most inspired football of the 2024 season. I like this to mean a lot of extensions of the run game via the pass, and I think Puka Nacua benefits most from this.
But seeing as how we should account for the Rams’s healthier offensive line, desire to win big offensively to keep apace in the division, and the Dolphins’ defense’s knack for giving up explosive plays, I like Kupp to average somewhere between 11-12 yards per touch tonight.
That would mean we only need him to snag seven catches at that rate. Should be have a reception for longer than 20 yards, it might be kick-your-feet-up time.
Bottom Line
Cooper Kupp is going to be running motions like the Energizer bunny, and he has a knack for slipping past defenders into the second-level. Should he do that once, or even twice, the game-script will likely see him eclipse this total before the fourth quarter.
He’ll need to stay healthy throughout the whole game (obviously, but it feels like that needs to be said these days!), and the Rams can’t blow the Dolphins out on the ground. I’m jumping all over this.
Best bet: Cooper Kupp Rushing + Receiving Yards o65.5 (-115)
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is thegreatdansby9) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
