Today marks a huge moment for the country … and college football as we get the first look at the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff bracket. ESPN’s Adam Rittenberg joined Tuesday’s edition of GoJo and Golic to break down what to expect from the rankings.
Given the number of upsets and close-calls we have seen this season, Mike Golic Jr. asked Rittenberg which team he thinks could pose a challenge for the committee to evaluate. Rittenberg pointed to Indiana, sharing that the Hoosiers are consistently outscoring opponents by at least 14 points. However, he pointed out that Indiana’s strength of schedule lacks significant nonconference opponents due to their position and the new structure of the Big Ten. Rittenberg stressed that the Hoosiers haven’t faced top teams like Oregon or Ohio State and Penn State isn’t on their schedule this year, but they do face the defending champions Michigan this Saturday. However, Rittenberg questioned how much a win over Michigan, which already has four losses, would enhance Indiana’s resume, adding more intrigue about where they will be in the playoff seeding.
Rittenberg also discussed some intriguing two-loss teams. He questioned how Alabama and LSU will be viewed before their Saturday night showdown at Tiger Stadium. He also mentioned Ole Miss, a team that has been strong overall, except for two games they could have won and a tough home loss to Kentucky. Evaluating Ole Miss’ standing is another factor. Rittenberg pointed out that in the Big 12 and ACC, there’s a growing belief that only one team from each conference may make the playoffs, though an at-large spot could still be viable, with some clarity expected after tonight’s rankings.
When asked who he thought was the best one-loss team in the country, Rittenberg chose Georgia, highlighting the Bulldogs’ strong performance, especially in the second half against Alabama, and their dominant win over Texas with an impressive defensive strategy. However, he also noted Georgia’s tendency for quarterback turnovers, leaving room to make a case for Ohio State or Texas. Ohio State, coming off a big win at Penn State, seems to have made defensive improvements since their loss to Oregon. Rittenberg acknowledges that Ohio State’s season hasn’t been as dominant as expected, with challenges on the offensive line and some defensive weaknesses exposed by Oregon.
Rittenberg was asked how far he thought Penn State might drop after their aforementioned home loss to the Buckeyes. Rittenberg shared that although there’s no baseline from the College Football Playoff committee yet, Penn State was sixth in the AP poll. Thus, Adam speculated that the Nittany Lions might drop to 8, 10 or perhaps closer to 12, which could be concerning since their remaining schedule lacks any teams likely to be in the committee’s top 25. Penn State’s resume include a solid home victory over Illinois and a few road wins, such as against West Virginia and a comeback win over USC, but nothing comparable to other contenders’ key victories.
Rittenberg doesn’t expect many two-loss teams to make the final 12, mainly due to key upcoming matchups. He noted that the Alabama-LSU winner should stay in playoff contention if they avoid further losses, which makes their game a de facto playoff elimination game. Ole Miss is another team to watch, so long as they can beat Georgia and finish strong. Adam pointed out that Ole Miss has built a super team with retained talent and transfers, rivaling Ohio State’s approach.
Rittenberg was less optimistic about the Big Ten, noting that a two-loss Ohio State might only be a contender if they defeat Indiana but stumble elsewhere. However, losses to teams like Purdue, Northwestern or Michigan certainly wouldn’t strengthen their case. He sees a few two-loss contenders outside the SEC and the Big Ten, with Notre Dame being an interesting case. While Notre Dame has performed well since their loss to Northern Illinois, that defeat looks increasingly problematic as Northern Illinois has struggled since that major upset. Texas A&M was another team on Adam’s radar, although with only one SEC loss and a season finale against Texas still ahead, it could also be challenging for the committee to evaluate.
Senior shared an intriguing scenario with Adam: If Indiana defeats Ohio State, the Buckeyes would likely remain around third in the rankings. Even with two losses — a close one to top-ranked Oregon and a potentially narrow defeat to highly-ranked Indiana — Ohio State would probably stay in the top 12, especially if they miss the Big Ten Championship. Adam joked about the scenario of an Ohio State loss to Indiana not necessarily ending their playoff hopes while pointing out that much would hinge on the committee’s view of Indiana’s record, especially if they enter the matchup at 10-0 or 9-1. Indiana’s impressive season could help cushion the impact of a potential Ohio State loss.
When considering the back half of the bracket in the 12 range, Rittenberg shared that if it comes down to Boise State or SMU breaking into the top 12, he would lean toward SMU. He highlighted their dominant win over Pitt last week and their strong season start. In contrast, Boise State’s most notable performance was a narrow three-point loss to Oregon, with limited competition in the Mountain West beyond teams like UNLV.
Watch or listen to the full show below and tune into GoJo and Golic weekday mornings from 8-10 a.m. ET on DraftKings Network! See more about how to watch DraftKings Network here.
SHOW BREAKDOWN
Hour 1: D-Hop & Mahomes Help Chiefs Stay Undefeated and The Lions Trade for Za’Darius Smith + Adam Rittenberg on BYU, IU and 2 Loss SEC Teams Ahead of CFP Rankings
VIDEO
Watch GoJo and Golic every weekday on Samsung TV Plus, Roku, Xumo Play, Google TV and DraftKingsNetwork.com from 8 to 10 a.m. ET. The show is also available via audio on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. You can also follow Mike Golic Sr. on X at @golic and Mike Golic Jr. on X at @mikegolicjr.
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