The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $200K Sand Trap [$50K to 1st]
The Field
The PGA TOUR continues its run of visiting non-U.S.-based courses this week as it heads to Mexico for the World Wide Technology Championship. This is the 18th running of this event, which first took place back in 2007. This is a 132-man field with the highest-ranked players being Cameron Young (33rd OWGR) and Max Greyserman (40th OWGR).
The event this year will be played at El Cardonal at Diamante for the second year in a row, a Tiger Woods-designed course that is located in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. As noted last season, this will be a vastly different test in many regards from what the players have normally been up against at this event, which used to be played on the other coast of Mexico at El Chameleon. We’ll break down the course more below, but realize that with a newer course and location in Cabo (the West side and southern tip of the peninsula), the recent form will be the mainstay of our focus this week.
Making it tougher for DFS and betting will be the lack of elite talent. As mentioned above, we only have a couple of names who currently rank inside the top 50 of the OWGR. On top of Young and Greyserman, we also have solid pros like Ben Griffin, Harris English, and Keith Mitchell who do offer some upside and give this event a little more legitimacy. The cut line will remain as the standard format, with the top 65 players and ties making the weekend after Friday.
The Course
El Cardonal at Diamante in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico
7,452-yard, par-72
This will be the first year this event is played at El Cardonal, a venue that also marks the very first designed course by Tiger Woods and his TGR design firm. Structurally, the venue sets up as a classic par 72 with four par 5s and four par 3s. The par 5s all measure in as shorter holes and clearly, the venue is emphasizing the need for players to take advantage of these scoring opportunities. At 7,452 yards, there are shorter par 4s in play as well but expect the par 5s to be where most of the field does their scoring.
From a setup perspective, here are Tiger’s words on the layout.
“I set up the golf strategy to make golfers think and make choices… There are going to be different ways to play every hole. Angles of approach are going to be very important and will dictate the type of shots you should consider. I love this kind of golf.”
The venue is very wide open and the fairways traverse through plenty of natural hills and mounds, with some sandtraps lurking that could potentially bring bogey or worse into play. Traversing these bunkers and some of the green side bunkers is likely what Woods was referring to when he made this statement. In some ways, the course does look similar to Riviera in setup but the fairways at Diamante are far wider and the course will likely play far firmer as well.
The greens may not play as firm as they are paspalum, a softer grass usually used on courses in hotter climates. However, the greens here are also massive and can be approached in numerous ways, making this very similar to some open championship venues. Overall, the open design and the wider setup with creative greens and fairways make this feel almost like a modern links venue. That may make it a good spot for veteran players who have more experience managing their way around more creative setups.
Last season, that theory played out as we saw the top of the leaderboard littered with veteran players, some well into their 40’s:
1. E. van Rooyen -27
T2. M. Kuchar -25
C. Villegas -25
4. J. Suh -24
T5. R. Palmer -22
The fact we had a top three of Villegas, Kuchar, and van Rooyen last season (who shot 63 in Round 6) showcases the fact you don’t need to be a power play around this venue to go low. All three men finished inside the top 5 in putts per GIR and were 13th in GIR%. In short, they avoided trouble at all costs and allowed their putters to carry them on this easier course where the strategy is just to play steady, and hope your putter finds its groove early. 1
2024 Weather Update: The weather looks relatively benign this week, with highs in the 75-80F range and winds mild, considering we are on a very open course near the ocean. Thursday looks like it might be slightly windier than the other four days with gusts into the 15mph range. It’s tough to say if you want to fade the Thursday afternoon wave or not, as Thursday is likely to be windy in the AM as well. Friday morning looks like it will be much calmer, so there will potentially be some lower scores for the early starters on Day 2, and that may be a time to attack with one-day showdown lineups. Otherwise, the volatility of the winds this week will make wave stacking a bit of a guessing game for classic lineups. It’s likely best to get some exposure to both sides of the draw.
Last 5 winners
2023–Eric van Rooyen -27 (over Matt Kuchar and Camilo Villegas -25)
2022—Russell Henley -23 (over Brian Harman -19)
2021—Viktor Hovland -23 (over Carlos Ortiz -19)
2020—Viktor Hovland -20 (over Aaron Wise -19)
2019—Brendon Todd -20 (over three players at -19)
*Played at El Cameleon from 2007 to 2022
Winning Trends
- Five of the last six winners had recorded a top-16 finish in one of their previous two starts before winning here.
- Each of the past six winners had played in at least one fall series event prior to winning this event.
Winners Stats and Course Overview
2023 Winner: Erik van Rooyen -27
(2023 lead-in: T23-T16-T30-MC-T68)
- Van Rooyen ranked T13 in GIR% but was 2nd in putts per GIR. He was quite accurate off the tee but made up a lot of strokes by making three eagles on the week
- The need to take advantage of the par 5’s this week is paramount, and both of the second-place finishers in Kuchar and Villegas were leaders in Par 5 scoring and efficiency last year
- You don’t want to deemphasize ball-striking too much, as Justin Suh and Chesson Hadley both had great ball-striking weeks (leaders in GIR and Good Drives) but neither ranked quite as high in putting metrics (and Hadley had zero Eagles)
- This week will be a bit of a lottery, but players with good recent form who have high birdie/eagle conversion rates will be in a good spot to go low on this setup
Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players (but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them). This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value compared to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
JJ Spaun +2500 and $9,000
Comparables:
- Keith Mitchell +2800 and $9,100
- Maverick McNealy +2500 and $9,300
- Lucas Glover +2500 and $9,500
Rico Hoey +3500 and $8,100
Comparables:
- Tom Hoge +3500 and $8,300
- Taylor Moore +3500 and $8,400
- Erik van Rooyen +3500 and $8,600
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Recent Form
1. Matthias Schmid ($9,600; T3-T5): Schmid finished T3 at the Shriners in his last start and has been on fire with his putter of late, gaining 4.5 strokes and 6.7 strokes putting over his last two starts. He’s priced up, but playing too well to pencil in as a pure fade.
2. Harry Hall ($9,200; T13-T9): Hall has impressed since his breakthrough win at the ISCO in July. While he can be erratic with his irons, he’s continued to putt well and gain strokes around the greens. He did miss the cut at this event last season, which makes him a little less reliable this week as a DFS play.
3. Rico Hoey ($8,200; T22-T3): Hoey just continues to strike the ball well every week. He’s top 10 in good drives gained and GIR gained over the last 24 rounds and comes in just two starts removed from a top five in Vegas. At under 8.5k, he looks very undervalued.
4. Doug Ghim ($9,600; T27-2nd): Ghim has played well this fall, posting a career-best 2nd place finish at the Shriners just two starts ago. He finished T15 at this venue last season, but his price this week has risen. He’ll need to improve on that placing to pay off this week in DFS.
5. Joe Highsmith ($7,400; T16-T6): Highsmith has been a solid target in DFS this fall. He’s now made four cuts in a row and rode a hot putter to a T16 finish in his last start in Vegas. This will be his first start at El Cardonal, but he looks like a good value at just $7,40.0.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Cash Games: Kuchar and Hoey good value
This was a great course for veterans last season and with Matt Kuchar ($8,500) coming into this year’s event playing solid golf, I see no reason not to back him again at a very solid price. The American finished T2 at El Cardonal last season and leads this field in GIR gained over the last 24 rounds. Despite that, he’s just $8,500 and remarkably easy to build lineups around. Rico Hoey ($8,100) is another name who I could see excelling this week, as the Filipino comes into this week on an 11-event made-cut streak and playing some terrific golf. While Hoey’s spent most of his career on the Korn Ferry Tour, he’s done well in lower-scoring events, and had an incredibly close call last summer, getting to 22-under par and losing in a playoff at the ISCO Championship. Below these two names, the likes of Joe Highsmith ($7,400), Nate Lashley ($7,300), and Chad Ramey ($7,300) all look like solid targets you could use to round out lineups this week.
Tournaments: Patrick Rodgers a solid pivot
The 8k range is likely to see a lot of condensed ownership on names like Kuchar and Taylor Moore, which should make Patrick Rodgers ($8,100) available at lower ownership this week, and a solid game theory pivot in GPPs. The American did finish T11 two starts ago in Black Desert and is an excellent putter whose game sets up well for these more open, lower-scoring events. Rodgers has played well at this event in the past (in Mayakoba) but has also posted top-10 finishes in each of the past three seasons at the Mexico Open. I also wouldn’t hesitate to take a look at a veteran like Michael Kim ($7,700), who is coming off a big start (T5 Shriners) and has gained over 2.5 strokes on approach in three straight events. Below 7k, names like Matthew NeSmith ($6,900), Norm Xiong ($6,600), Brandon Wu ($6,500) and David Lipsky ($6,800) all make for sensible GPP punt targets.
MY PICK: JJ Spaun ($9,000)
I won’t be shocked if we get another long-shot winner this week, but if it is a player who is shorter in the betting odds that takes home the trophy, my money would be on JJ Spaun. Spaun’s played well going on 3-4 months now, having posted four top 10s over his last nine starts; beginning with a T10 in Detroit at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Over that span, Spaun has gained strokes on approach in every single start and has also gained strokes off the tee now in six straight starts.
He’s essentially a robot right now in terms of hitting greens (5th in GIR gained over the last 24 rounds) so his main focus this week will be on getting the putter going, which is overdue for a big week. While I wouldn’t characterize Spaun as a great putter, he’s certainly proven capable of spiking with that club and has putted well on Paspalum greens in Mexico in the past, posting top-15 finishes at El Cameleon in 2017, 2018, and 2022.
With him coming off a big week in Japan (T6 at the Zozo) this feels like the spot for Spaun to break through and grab his second career win. He’s certainly a player I’d have my eye on over the last three fall events and at +2500 or better on the DraftKings Sportsbook, makes for a solid outright target in this wide-open field.
MY SLEEPER: Henrik Norlander ($7,300)
This feels like a good spot for a veteran like Norlander to put in another big week. The Swede has played all around the world and won’t be put off by seeing a different style of venue, especially one that emphasizes scoring clubs over power. Norlander has typically excelled at easier scoring events and has grabbed multiple top-five finishes in the PGA fall series, including a runner-up and T5 finish at Sea Island, host of the RSM Classic, another wide-open, ocean-side venue.
Coming into this season’s WWT Championship, Norlander is playing solid golf, having posted T8 finishes at the Omega Masters (Euro Tour) and Black Desert Championship already this fall. While he missed the cut at this venue last season, he’s played a lot of strong golf of late and certainly has the sort of experience on links and open-style courses that paid dividends here last season.
On top of using him as a value play in DFS, he’s someone I like adding in the top 10 and top 20 markets for betting, where he’s available at +675 and +275 on the DraftKings Sportsbook in those markets, this week.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $200K Sand Trap [$50K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
