It’s a battle of aces on Tuesday night, as Gerrit Cole ($12,000) and Tanner Bibee ($11,200) square off in Game 2 of the ALCS.
Will the Guardians be able to even up the series? Or will the Yankees take a commanding 2-0 lead? Let’s dive in and break it all down from a Showdown perspective.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $150K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st] (CLE @ NYY)
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Pick
Juan Soto ($13,500 CP) – In 2019, we all learned that Soto can come up big when it matters most. Five years later, the All-Star seems poised to do it all again. Soto had a huge performance in Game 1 on Monday, hitting a solo home run and finishing with 19.0 FPTS. It’s obviously a small sample with the Yankees able to rest during the Wild Card round, but in his 22 postseason plate appearances, Soto is now slashing .353/.455/.588 with a 190 wRC+. Tonight, he’ll draw an opposite-hand matchup with the aforementioned Bibee. That’s important. Soto’s been great within any split in 2024, yet Bibee struggled waaaaaay more with LHBs than RHBs throughout the regular season. To wit, while righties were held to a .190 average with a .252 wOBA, lefties hit .260 off Bibee with 1.36 long balls per nine. Look for Soto to take advantage.
UTIL Plays
Gerrit Cole ($12,000) – I don’t think anyone is coming into this slate thinking Cole isn’t a viable option for their lineup. The real question is how you want to utilize the 2023 Cy Young Award winner. To me, he’s a little too expensive to be in your Captain’s slot. Allow me to explain. As we’ve seen elsewhere this season with former Cy Young winners — Corbin Burnes comes to mind — Cole’s strikeout numbers have started to fall off in 2024. A 25.4% rate is certainly above-average, yet it pales in comparison to the 39.9% figure we saw from Cole back in 2019. This issue has continued into the playoffs, with Cole racking up just eight strikeouts in 12.0 innings in the ALDS. The Guardians don’t have an excellent offensive profile, but if there’s one thing the team doesn’t do, it’s strikeout. Cleveland ranked sixth in contact rate (78.9%) and 26th in strikeout rate (20.2%) in 2024. That will limit Cole’s upside.
Jose Ramirez ($9,200) – If you were to Google “who owns Gerrit Cole?” the first name you’d see would be Rafael Devers. We all know this. However, Ramirez isn’t too far behind the Red Sox third baseman. In 34 career at-bats against the RHP, Ramirez is slashing .353/.452/.676 with two home runs and seven walks. In context of 2024, Ramirez has been much better against LHPs than RHPs, but we are talking about a man with a .227 ISO and a 130 wRC+ as a left-handed batter across the totality of his time in MLB. Don’t worry. He can hit righties.
Austin Wells ($7,200) – It’s been a very underwhelming postseason for Wells — he wasn’t very good in September, either — but the backstop continued to hit clean-up for the Yankees in Game 1. Unless that changes heading into Tuesday evening, Wells’ premium lineup spot and his modest price tag will keep him viable. As mentioned above, the best way to attack Bibee is left-handed bats. Wells also had quite a bit of success in opposite-hand matchups in 2024, posting 116 wRC+ within the split. With his recent results, Wells could be a nice variance play on this single-game slate.
Fades
Lane Thomas ($7,600) – Thomas has had some massive moments in these playoffs, not the least of which was a game-clinching grand slam off Tarik Skubal in Game 5 of the ALDS. However, you have to remain cognizant of the fact that the outfielder is, at his best, a platoon hitter. During the regular season, Thomas managed just a .646 OPS and an 82 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. In fact, Thomas’ .283 wOBA within the split was one of the ten lowest marks among all qualified hitters. Skubal’s been better than Cole this season, but handedness matters. With Cole likely working deep into this contest, you can not trust Thomas.
THE OUTCOME
To say the Yankees have a reputation for owning the AL Central in the postseason would be an understatement and, with Gerrit Cole on the mound for Game 2, I have a hard time seeing tonight’s script going any differently. It’s not only Cole that the Guardians have to overcome, as well. New York’s bullpen has been untouchable so far in the playoffs, registering a league-best 0.48 ERA. I’m just not sure how Cleveland’s bats are going to keep pace.
Final Score: Yankees 6, Guardians 2
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $150K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st] (CLE @ NYY)
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
