I didn’t think it’d be someone named Bill Murray who’d be a primary driving force behind my pleas to get you to buy low on Rome Odunze in season-long fantasy. But it’s been a weird season, and Bill Murray—the 27-year-old lineman who had an outstanding preseason for the Bears—stepped in for an injured Tevin Jenkins and absolutely balled, as here.
And now we’ve got a healthy Rome Odunze with a Caleb Williams on the rise. He’s still averaging around the same time to throw since Week 3 (right around the 2.8-2.9 second range in every game), so the improved line play isn’t necessarily getting the ball out of his hands faster. He’s just simply seeing the field better.
In fact, Caleb Williams, over Weeks 4 and 5, is third in the league in EPA+CPOE composite score:
That’s some elite company, am I right, Joe Flacco?
All to say, a Caleb Williams on the rise should mean only good things for Rome Odunze, who only recorded 40 yards on five receptions against the Panthers on Sunday. Let’s break it all down and make sure nothing’s changed for Odunze as Williams has shown an improved rapport with other receivers like DJ Moore and D’Andre Swift.
Analysis
As far as opportunity goes, we shouldn’t worry at all about Odunze’s quiet performance on Williams’s breakout game. He tied DJ Moore for most routes run on the team (29) and was behind only Moore on the depth chart in average separation score (4.6). Odunze was out there.
Here’s Odunze’s route chart from the Bears’ Week 5 win against the Panthers:
Clear to see, here, that Eberflus and Waldron are comfortably using Odunze to stretch the field. They’ve got guys like D’Andre Swift, Cole Kmet, and Keenan Allen to dance levels concepts within ten-to-fifteen yards of the line of scrimmage.
Odunze’s an alpha receiver with a proven track record of snagging Deep Throws as defined by NGS.
Don’t forget about his college pedigree, which I outlined back in August, when I called Odunze a league-winner:
Odunze’s over-the-top prolific career at the University of Washington is an incredible resumé to behold. Especially his 2023: he led the FBS in receiving yards with a whopping 1,640. He also registered 21 catches on Deep Throws (targets with 20+ air yards), and hauled in 24 contested catches—both FBS-bests as well.
The ceiling is stratospherically high, here. Odunze’s build grades similarly to Ja’Marr Chase’s. He’s 6’3″, 212 pounds—so we know he’s physical at the line and at the point of a catch. He grades in the 94th percentile in speed score for all rookies and 97th for catch radius. Still, with all that size and speed, Odunze cleared the 86th percentile for his agility score.
Caleb Williams hasn’t been afraid to throw the ball, either. You can see from the below graph (credit: Jrfortgang) that he ranks among the league-leaders in Deep Throw %age, but has an abysmal EPA on those throws.
Even if Williams finishes in the bottom-half of the league on Deep Throw EPA, there’s still some positive regression to be had, here. And Odunze will be a beneficiary. He was in Week 3, when he stamped 112 yards and a touchdown on his name against the Colts.
Another positive from Sunday that portends well for Williams and the deep ball: Cole Kmet and D’Andre Swift had fantastic pass-blocking days. If they keep that up and buy Williams more time to pressure (
But back to that game against the Colts—Odunze ran 53 (again, tied with Moore for team-high) routes against Indianapolis, and I was curious if his route tree looked much different from what we saw in Week 5, when Williams was at his most poised.
It didn’t. See for yourself:
Simply looks like Williams was able to hit Odunze on a few more of the shot plays down the left sideline against the Colts than he was against the Panthers this past Sunday.
Don’t believe me, still? Maybe DJ Moore’s performance on Sunday has got you a bit frightened that Odunze is falling back down the depth chart now that Keenan Allen is healthy. Allow me to give you some courage. Here’s Moore’s route chart from the Panthers game:
It feels a little bit like these two route charts mirror each other, no? Moore’s route chart might be a shade more tightly clustered toward the middle hashes, but it’d only be by a shade.
One thing to note, as this Bears podcaster did: Both touchdown passes to Moore against the Panthers weren’t Williams’s first read on the play.
And, as a last visual, Williams’s overall passing chart doesn’t indicate he leans to one side or the other (though he does tend to throw more to his right when facing pressure, as more mobile right-handed QBs tend to do):
This is all to say: I see no reason to believe that Rome Odunze’s relatively quiet game (admittedly, amidst a deliberate offensive endeavor to hang a number on the Panthers) whatsoever suggests that anything has changed with regards to his opportunities nor Williams’s passing tendencies. Don’t drop him.
Bottom Line
Patience. Odunze will soon have just as big a day as DJ Moore just had against Carolina.
As for this week? It’s risky to start anyone in London. But this will either mark the start of a fairly-staggering season relaunch for the Jacksonville Jaguars after their barn-burner with the Colts last week, or it might be the perfect stage for the oddball rookie superstar in Williams. The NFL is wacky. Everyone gets hurt. Teams seem to abandon identities week-over-week.
I think the Jags deflate on Sunday, and Williams continues his good play here, if only because breakfast time stateside seems like the perfect island primetime slate for his entire vibe. I think Odunze will be a prime beneficiary.
I’m starting him at FLEX in my twelve-team legacy league.
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