We’re back in the National League on Tuesday with Game 3 of both NLDS series.
Which teams will take a commanding 2-1 lead? Which players will have the biggest impact? Let’s dive in and break down all the action on the diamond.
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PITCHER
Stud
Michael King, San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers, $8,700 – Differentiation isn’t easy on a two-game slate, especially at pitcher, but I have a hunch that Aaron Nola ($8,200) will be more popular than King on Tuesday. However, despite his matchup with the Dodgers, King is the arm with the most raw upside. The right-hander was masterful in Game 1 of the Wild Card round, tossing seven scoreless innings with 12 strikeouts. It was a continuation of what we’ve all seen from King dating back to the beginning of July. In his final 13 outings of the regular season, King maintained a 2.07 ERA with a 2.55 FIP and a 28.4% strikeout rate. Heck, King hasn’t allowed an earned run across 12.0 innings in his last two starts against Los Angeles.
INFIELD
Stud
Pete Alonso, New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies, $4,500 – Alonso’s overall numbers the past couple weeks have been rough, but we all know what the hulking first baseman is capable of doing. The fact that his last two hits have been home runs says all you need to know about Alonso’s upside as a DFS asset. That’s the key element here: The long ball. Nola has been getting burned recently. The veteran RHP surrendered 1.91 opponent home runs per nine across the final month of the regular season. He’s also not unfamiliar with giving up moon shots to Alonso, specifically. In 50 career at-bats against Nola, Alonso’s mashed five homers and owns a 1.050 OPS.
Value
Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets, $3,900 – Bohm lacks elite power, which tends to make him a bit of an underwhelming DFS asset. However, if there’s a scenario where you’d want to use the infielder, it’s Game 3. Not only is Bohm’s price tag below $4K, but he’ll be going up against the left-handed Sean Manaea ($7,700). The difference in Bohm’s career handedness splits is staggering. Against RHPs, Bohm swings like a utility man, posting a .112 ISO and a 91 wRC+. Against LHPs? Bohm is an All-Star, registering a .208 ISO and a 135 wRC+.
Value
Weston Wilson, Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets, $3,400 – It remains a mystery if Wilson will be in tonight’s lineup, but if I’m managing the Phillies, I’m making sure he’s in there somewhere. Wilson has been Philadelphia’s best right-handed platoon bat in 2024, slashing .341/.412/.614 with a 209 wRC+ in his 51 plate appearances within the split. Wilson’s .412 expected wOBA versus southpaws is also the highest on the team.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Jackson Merrill, San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers, $4,700 – On the heels of a three-hit performance in Game 2, Merrill is once again viable in Game 3. I mean, the rookie has almost been viable every game for months now. From June 1 to the end of the regular season — a span of 100 games — Merrill slashed .299/.330/.571 with a .272 ISO and a 149 wRC+. For some context, that .272 ISO was a top 10 mark among qualified hitters during that sample. Not qualified rookies — all qualified hitters. Considering how much Walker Buehler ($6,200) has struggled to keep the ball in the park, Merrill’s pop is of great interest on this slate.
Value
Jurickson Profar, San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers, $3,800 – For most of the season, the book on Profar was pretty simple: You use him against LHPs. However, after certain areas regressed to the mean in the second-half, the rules are no longer so straight-forward. Profar was actually quite good as an LHB in 2024, posting a 137 wRC+ within the split in his 439 plate appearances. He’ll hit lefty off the aforementioned Buehler on Tuesday. In 16 starts this year, Buehler pitched to a 5.54 FIP and allowed 1.91 opponent home runs per nine. Yikes.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $150K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
