The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $300K Sand Trap [$100K to 1st]
The Field
This week marks the third fall series event, and the first running of the Black Desert Classic, a full-field tournament set to take place at Black Desert Resort in Ivins, Utah. Last week saw a close finish down the stretch as Keith Mitchell could not close things out on the back nine and ended up three-putting on the final hole from 35 feet to miss the playoff. Kevin Yu won his first PGA event, downing Beau Hossler, who booked the second career playoff loss of his career.
All three men will be back in the field this week, with Mitchell currently set as the event favorite in the betting odds (+1600). However, we’ll see some new faces who weren’t in the field last week, including Chris Kirk, Erik van Rooyen, and Kurt Kitayama. As mentioned above, the players will be taking on a new venue this week (more below) so course history won’t be a factor. With the venue being located in a completely different part of the USA than last week (and in a desert setting), it will also be a marked change for the players setup-wise, making this a tougher event to predict.
As always, this week’s cut will take place after Friday with the top 65 and ties making the weekend. Let’s dive into the course and player preview below.
The Course
Black Desert Resort – Ivins, Utah
Par: 36-35–71
Yardage: 7,371; Greens: Bentgrass
With a new PGA event on the schedule comes a new course in Black Desert Resort. The venue is a Tom Weiskopf design (the last before he passed away) and sits in a lava field in a preservation area in Ivins, Utah; which is in the Southern tip of the state and near the border of both Arizona and Nevada. Despite being in Utah, Black Desert isn’t set at a huge elevation (approx 900m above sea level) although the air is still likely to be a little thinner and may improve ball flight.
The course itself looks like it has a small amount of elevation change in portions, with some rolling fairways where players who catch the right corridors off the tee could get significant rollout. In terms of setup, the venue plays as a 7300+ Par 71, although I don’t think it will play extra long for the pros. The Fairways look wide enough (average 30 yards across) that most players will be banging driver off most of the par 4s and par 5s, and with the desert/lava landscape, the lack of traditional rough should make the players even bold with their selections and routing off the tee.
The course will play as a traditional Par 71, with three par 5s, and some solid risk, reward holes, including the short Par 4, 14th, and a closing Par 5 where players can get very aggressive off the tee if they so choose. Despite being in a more unique setting, with a few more variables thrown in, I don’t expect Black Rock to play much differently than TPC Craig Ranch, and to an extent, TPC Scottsdale; Weiskopf’s other two famous designs that are still on the PGA schedule.
The large fairways will make this a driver-heavy course, but not an overly difficult driving venue which will help players who aren’t accurate off the tee. Additionally, the larger greens will mean those who can properly gauge green depth with their short to mid-irons will be able to get much closer to the flags on approach.
As we can see from both the Byron Nelson’s (TPC Craig Ranch) and the Phoenix Open’s (TPC Scottsdale) last couple of leaderboards, strokes gained off the tee haven’t mattered quite as much as strokes gained on approach at these Weiskopf courses. Taylor Pendrith did win at TPC Craig Ranch in 2024 while gaining 4.0 strokes off the tee, but he was given the title on the final hole by a blunder from Ben Kohles, who gained four more strokes on approach than Pendrith did. Additionally, the Canadian massively outperformed around and on the greens that week. Going back to 2022 and 2023 at that same venue, KH Lee, who often struggles off the tee, used accurate mid-to-long iron play to win at the Craig Ranch event two years in a row.
We can also see from looking at TPC Scottsdale this year, where we had two veterans who are below-average off-the-tee players, Nick Taylor and Charley Hoffman, go at it in a playoff, that mid-iron play is likely a better indicator for success at these venues, than SG: OTT. Taylor and Hoffman both gained over 5.0 strokes on approach, while Taylor led the field in proximity from 150-175 yards, but neither massively outperformed OTT.
Hence, for this week, I’m emphasizing approach stats and looking at players who have been great in terms of hitting close (proximity) from 150-200 yards. Most of the par 4s and 5s this week fall in similar ranges as the holes from Weiskopf’s other two PGA designs so it should stand that this venue will reward players who are also great from those same distances. If you want one more angle, remember that this venue is taking place on bentgrass greens and in the desert, giving some relative similarities with TPC Summerlin, which we’ll see on the schedule shortly. It wouldn’t shock me to see a few names who typically have success at Summerlin, poke up this week as well.
2024 Weather Outlook: Much like last week, there is almost nothing to report in terms of weather edges for DFS lineup building. It’s clear sunny skies all four days with winds expect to top out in the 10mph range on Friday afternoon. Friday afternoon may end up with firmer greens than the Thursday PM wave, so if you need a tiebreaker between two players this week, who are stuck in different waves, I would lean ever so slightly to the Thursday PM/Friday AM player. This is also a relatively open course, and the sun and wind will likely make greens firm up as the day goes on. As long as the mornings aren’t too cool (we are in a desert) then I would expect the AM players to have more receptive conditions on the first two days. For single-round lineups and round-by-round leader betting, targeting the early starters this week is an angle I’ll be looking to explore.
Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players (but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them). This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value comparative to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
Chan Kim +3500 and $8,900
- Lucas Glover (+4000 and $9,000)
- Ryan Fox (+3500 and $9,200)
- Patrick Fishburn (+3500 and $9,600)
Bud Cauley +5500 and $7,400
- Daniel Berger (+5500 and $7,700)
- Alex Smalley (+6000 and $7,600)
- Chandler Phillips (+6000 and $7,600)
Recent Form
1. Keith Mitchell ($10,600; T3/T12): Mitchell was a hard-luck loser last week, as he held the lead for most of the back-nine but three-jacked the final hole to miss the playoff. Still, his uptick with the putter is encouraging, overall, as he’s gained over 3.0 strokes on the greens in two of his last three events.
2. Patton Kizzire ($7,700; T11/win): Kizzire followed up his win at the Procore Championship to start the fall swing, with a T11 last week in Jackson. The veteran and three-time TOUR winner has gained over 3.0 strokes on Approach in his last two starts and is feeling it with the putter.
3. Seamus Power ($10,300; T11/T10): Power has been playing solid golf the last couple of months. The Irishman is fourth in SG: Total stats over his the last six weeks and gained strokes across the board at the Sanderson Farms.
4. Lucas Glover ($9,000; T3/T12): Glover had a great week in Jackson, ending the week in T3 position. The veteran has finished T3 and T13 over his last two starts and as usual, is gaining big with his irons. Glover has some good setups coming his way soon so even if he cools off this week, keep him in mind for Bermuda, Vegas, and Sea Island.
5. Chan Kim ($8,900 – T33/T14/T51): After a T33, I’m just leaving Kim in this position, where he was last week. His approach numbers dipped in Jackson, but he killed it around the greens. I’d expect some better ball-striking in Utah which could lead to another top 20 finish.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Cash Games: Kirk, a solid starter
Chris Kirk ($9,800) is making his way back to action this week and the six-time PGA winner looks relatively cheaply priced given the level of competition he’s up against this week. The American was able to qualify for the TOUR Championship this season thanks to some fine late-season play, where he managed a T9 at the BMW Championship. He’s won in the fall before and has played well in the desert and at TPC Scottsdale in the past. Stephan Jaeger ($9,300) is another veteran who looks underpriced in this field and is coming off a solid week in Jackson (T23), and I also like the setup this week for Doug Ghim ($7,900), who has played well at both Craig Ranch and Scottsdale (Weiskopf setups) and should benefit from a move off Bermuda putting greens this week.
Tournaments: Fox could surprise
Whenever we have a quirky or more open setup on tap, it always opens things up a little for European or foreign players, many of whom didn’t grow up playing the same traditional courses we often see, week over week, on the PGA. Ryan Fox ($9,200) is one of the names who could end up surprising at this week’s course, as he has loads of experience playing around the world. He’s also coming in off a very solid week in Jackson, where he gained over 3.0 strokes OTT and on Approach, and should be helped by the extra room off the tee at Black Desert. Below Fox, don’t be shocked if Canadian Nick Taylor ($7,400) pops up this week either. He loves TPC Scottsdale and is likely motivated after being left off the Presidents Cup squad by countryman Mike Weir in September. If you need more extreme value, I’d also look at the likes of David Lipsky ($6,700), Martin Laird (see below), and Brandon Wu ($6,700) this week.
MY PICK: Kurt Kitayama ($10,200)
This looks like a great spot for Kitayama to potentially pick up the second win of his career. The 2023 Arnold Palmer winner has been off since missing the cut at the Wyndham, where he failed to pick up enough points to make the top 70 and qualify for the playoffs. He now sits 82nd in the rankings and needs to pick up some points fast in the next few weeks to up his status for next season.
Despite the lackluster finish, you can tell by where he sits in the betting odds and in the DraftKings salary structure, just how respected he is as a player compared to this field. On top of winning a signature event a year ago, the 31-year-old finished T4 at a painfully difficult PGA Championship setup that same season, and also posted a T6 at the 3M Open this July, where he gained 7.4 strokes on approach. A Euro Tour veteran, Kitayama also has plenty of experience playing these more open-style designs (without thick rough or tree lines) which are more plentiful on that Tour as a whole. He’s also posted T23 and T8 finishes at TPC Scottsdale the last two seasons and has posted top 10 finishes at TPC Twin Cities, Vidanta Vallarta, and the Rennaissance Club; three more venues with bigger fairways that lack traditional rough for the most part.
I think this is a great setup for Kitayama, who not only comes in with a rest advantage but won’t have the bias of having played on a much more traditional track last week with bermuda greens. It should provide him a slight advantage and, as mentioned, with his FedEx position being somewhat vulnerable, you have to think he’ll come in ready to take full advantage. For DFS he seems unlikely to be heavily owned in large GPPs (given that he hasn’t played yet this fall) and for betting, I’m more than fine taking a shot with him at +2500 or larger in the outright market.
MY SLEEPER: Martin Laird ($6,600)
Martin Laird has often been based in Scottsdale throughout his PGA career, so whenever the TOUR comes into a desert stop on this side of the USA, he’s often worth a look. The 41-year-old has won in Vegas at TPC Summerlin (x2) but has also posted runner-up finishes in Reno and a T3 at the Weiskopf-designed TPC Scottsdale–a venue where he has posted four top 10 finishes throughout his career.
While he’s not as great off the tee as he was early in his career. Laird has become a better all-around player in some respects late in his career, and his last two starts have seen him gain over 2.0 strokes around the green. Add that to the fact he played well in Jackson last week (+2.7 strokes on approach) but simply could not find a putt on the Bermuda greens there, and you may have a situation where the change in scenery (and green type) may lead to some massive positive regression in his finishing position this week.
At well under 7k in price, he makes perfect sense as a GPP value to me, but he’s also someone I like chasing in the placing markets this week for betting. At +500 and +1200 on the DraftKings Sportsbook, his top 10 and top 20 prices offer some nice value, considering how often he’s outperformed at these sorts of courses–and in this portion of the country.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $300K Sand Trap [$100K to 1st]
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have ac
